Week 4 report · Sat, Sep 26 · 2026 Week 4
South Carolina
3–3 · Ours #25 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
18–49FinalWe had SC 20 – ALA 35
AP #8Alabama
5–1 · Ours #4 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
Win chanceOur odds before kickoff: how often each team won outright when we played the game out thousands of times from our line.ALA 81%ALA won
ALA 81%ALA wonSpreadOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. First seen at ALA −12.ALA −12.5oursOur computer's point spread for this game, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. Read it like a betting line: −7 means we have that team winning by 7. −14.8 · ALA covered by 18.5
TotalOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. Our total was 54.6.53.5final 67 · over by 13.5
Our callThe side our number took at the early-week line, graded at that line. Line value is how far the market moved toward it by the last capture before kickoff.No call
Quarterbacksthis game
LaNorris Sellers18/30 · 172 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- −0.2022nd pct
- Comp %
- 60.0
- TD
- 1
- Turnovers
- 11 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 1
Keelon Russell21/27 · 365 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- +0.8296th pct
- Comp %
- 77.8
- TD
- 4
- Turnovers
- 00 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 2
The matchupthis game · ▲▼ better or worse than the unit's usual · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| South Carolinaoffense | Played like ALA +21.2Fitted from non-garbage efficiency; describes how the game was played, not who deserved it. | defenseAlabama | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30th | 36.1%▼12.5 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 36.1%▼0.4 | 70th |
| 49th | +0.04▼0.22 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | +0.04▼0.10 | 51st |
| 38th | −0.06▼0.34 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | −0.06▲0.14 | 63rd |
| 63rd | +0.13▼0.11 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | +0.13▼0.29 | 37th |
| 16th | 2▼1.5 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 2▼0.2 | 84th |
| Alabamaoffense | defenseSouth Carolina | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 69th | 47.9%▼2.2 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 47.9%▼7.0 | 31st |
| 93rd | +0.45▲0.18 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | +0.45▼0.37 | 7th |
| 93rd | +0.67▲0.37 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | +0.67▼0.54 | 7th |
| 62nd | +0.13▼0.14 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | +0.13▼0.11 | 38th |
| 79th | 0▲1.0 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 0▼1.0 | 21st |
Team statsthis game · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| South CarolinaSC | AlabamaALA | |
|---|---|---|
| Special teams & field position | ||
| Average startWhere the team's drives started on average. | Own 216th | Own 3166th |
| Kicking vs expectedKickingPoints from field goals and extra points against what an average kicker makes from the same spots. | −1.4 pts17th | 0.0 pts39th |
| Drives & pace | ||
| PlaysOffensive plays outside garbage time. | 6162nd | 4833rd |
| Drive pointsThe part of the final margin the offense moved the ball for (efficiency, success rate, big plays, finishing drives), in points. A margin over the opponent. | −15.416th | +15.485th |
| Turnovers & hidden points | ||
| Penalty first downsPenalty 1st downsFirst downs the team was handed by the opponent's penalties. | 248th | 248th |
| 4th downsPoints from going for it on fourth down, against what the average team gets from the same spots. | +0.2 pts63rd | 0.0 pts51st |
| Return touchdownsReturn TDsDefensive and special-teams touchdowns. | 042nd | 192nd |
| Hidden pointsPoints from outside the offense's drives: turnovers, field position, kicking, fourth downs, penalty first downs, return touchdowns and safeties. A margin over the opponent. ALA +13.5: turnovers +5.2, field position +3.3, kicking +1.0, 4th downs −0.3, return touchdowns +4.2. | −13.55th | +13.595th |
Season so far
South Carolina3–3 · 16th-hardest schedule
W
vs Kent State57–0covered −35.5
vs Kent State57–0covered −35.5Wvs Towson45–9missed −44.5
L
vs Mississippi State34–41missed −3
vs Mississippi State34–41missed −3Lat Alabama18–49missed +12.5
at Alabama18–49missed +12.5L
vs Kentucky34–35missed −2.5
vs Kentucky34–35missed −2.5W
at Florida38–19covered +10.5
at Florida38–19covered +10.5Alabama5–1 · 5th-hardest schedule
W
vs East Carolina48–10covered −28
vs East Carolina48–10covered −28Wat Kentucky45–17covered −9
at Kentucky45–17covered −9W
vs Florida State50–36missed −19
vs Florida State50–36missed −19Wvs South Carolina49–18covered −12.5
vs South Carolina49–18covered −12.5Wat Mississippi State56–23covered −5.5
at Mississippi State56–23covered −5.5L
vs Georgia17–20missed −2.5
vs Georgia17–20missed −2.5Model cfb_best · uncertainty ±15.6 · run Sep 26, 6:05 PM EDT · froze at kickoff and graded as-is