Week 4 report · Sat, Sep 26 · 2026 Week 4
Tulsa
3–3 · Ours #79 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
6–34FinalWe had TLSA 21 – ARK 34
Arkansas
2–4 · Ours #98 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
Win chanceOur odds before kickoff: how often each team won outright when we played the game out thousands of times from our line.ARK 79%ARK won
ARK 79%ARK wonSpreadOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. First seen at ARK −8.ARK −7oursOur computer's point spread for this game, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. Read it like a betting line: −7 means we have that team winning by 7. −13.3 · ARK covered by 21
TotalOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. Our total was 55.2.50.5final 40 · under by 10.5
Our callThe side our number took at the early-week line, graded at that line. Line value is how far the market moved toward it by the last capture before kickoff.No call
Quarterbacksthis game
Dexter Williams II20/32 · 176 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- −0.0436th pct
- Comp %
- 62.5
- TD
- 0
- Turnovers
- 00 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 1
KJ Jackson24/36 · 309 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- +0.1251st pct
- Comp %
- 66.7
- TD
- 1
- Turnovers
- 11 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 3
The matchupthis game · ▲▼ better or worse than the unit's usual · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| Tulsaoffense | Played like ARK +5.1Fitted from non-garbage efficiency; describes how the game was played, not who deserved it. | defenseArkansas | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17th | 30.4%▼5.5 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 30.4%▲21.3 | 84th |
| 38th | −0.03▼0.11 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | −0.03▲0.30 | 62nd |
| 41st | −0.04▼0.02 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | −0.04▲0.17 | 59th |
| 41st | −0.03▼0.21 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | −0.03▲0.39 | 59th |
| 41st | 1▼0.8 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 1▲0.3 | 59th |
| Arkansasoffense | defenseTulsa | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 42nd | 39.2%▲2.0 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 39.2%▲2.9 | 58th |
| 43rd | +0.01▲0.17 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | +0.01▲0.09 | 57th |
| 56th | +0.12▲0.34 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | +0.12▲0.17 | 44th |
| 28th | −0.12▼0.01 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | −0.12▲0.10 | 72nd |
| 41st | 1 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 1▼0.8 | 59th |
Team statsthis game · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| TulsaTLSA | ArkansasARK | |
|---|---|---|
| Special teams & field position | ||
| Average startWhere the team's drives started on average. | Own 204th | Own 3585th |
| Kicking vs expectedKickingPoints from field goals and extra points against what an average kicker makes from the same spots. | 0.0 pts39th | +1.9 pts93rd |
| Drives & pace | ||
| PlaysOffensive plays outside garbage time. | 4631st | 7490th |
| Drive pointsThe part of the final margin the offense moved the ball for (efficiency, success rate, big plays, finishing drives), in points. A margin over the opponent. | −3.342nd | +3.358th |
| Turnovers & hidden points | ||
| Penalty first downsPenalty 1st downsFirst downs the team was handed by the opponent's penalties. | 122nd | 248th |
| 4th downsPoints from going for it on fourth down, against what the average team gets from the same spots. | −0.2 pts36th | 0.0 pts51st |
| Hidden pointsPoints from outside the offense's drives: turnovers, field position, kicking, fourth downs, penalty first downs, return touchdowns and safeties. A margin over the opponent. ARK +10.2: turnovers +2.6, field position +5.3, kicking +1.4, 4th downs +0.2, penalty first downs +0.8. | −10.211th | +10.289th |
Season so far
Tulsa3–3 · 97th-hardest schedule
W
vs Oklahoma State24–10covered +13
vs Oklahoma State24–10covered +13W
at Sam Houston23–17missed −12.5
at Sam Houston23–17missed −12.5Wvs East Texas A&M42–0covered −41
Lat Arkansas6–34missed +7
at Arkansas6–34missed +7L
vs North Texas44–45covered +2.5
vs North Texas44–45covered +2.5L
at Navy26–34missed +3
at Navy26–34missed +3Arkansas2–4 · 1st-hardest schedule
Wvs North Alabama31–14missed −40.5
L
at Utah10–43missed +13.5
at Utah10–43missed +13.5L
vs Georgia17–45missed +24.5
vs Georgia17–45missed +24.5Wvs Tulsa34–6covered −7
vs Tulsa34–6covered −7L
at Texas A&M7–34missed +13.5
at Texas A&M7–34missed +13.5L
vs Tennessee17–24covered +13.5
vs Tennessee17–24covered +13.5Model cfb_best · uncertainty ±15.6 · run Sep 26, 6:05 PM EDT · froze at kickoff and graded as-is