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Oct 13, 12:07 PM EDTupdated
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Oct 13, 7:43 AM EDTstats the morning after a game; scores and grades the same night

Tulsa

3–3 FBS · American Athletic · this season
Rating
−6.4
Rank
99
Résumé
95
Projected wins
6.2▲ 2.3 vs preseason
CFP odds
0%

Schedule

our line · the market · graded at the early week line
DateOpponentOur lineOursMarketResultPerf.Our call
Sat, Sep 59/5Oklahoma StateOKSTTLSA −3.6TLSA +14.0W 24–1070TLSA · W
Sat, Sep 129/12at Sam HoustonSHSUTLSA −2.0TLSA −14.0W 23–1749SHSU · W
Sat, Sep 199/19East Texas A&MEast Texas A&MTLSA −32.9TLSA −41.0W 42–086
Sat, Sep 269/26at ArkansasARKTLSA +13.3TLSA +9.5L 6–3448ARK · W
Thu, Oct 110/1North TexasUNTTLSA +6.8TLSA −1.0L 44–4544UNT · W
Sat, Oct 1010/10at NavyNAVYTLSA +1.7TLSA +2.5L 26–3436TLSA · L
Sat, Oct 1710/17at RiceRICETLSA −1.8TLSA −4.0RICE +4.0Pass
Fri, Oct 2310/23ArmyARMYTLSA +2.1—wk 8
Sat, Nov 711/7at TulaneTULNTLSA +0.6—wk 10
Sat, Nov 1411/14Florida AtlanticFAUTLSA PK—wk 11
Sat, Nov 2111/21CharlotteCLTTLSA −22.2—wk 12
Sat, Nov 2811/28at UTSAUTSATLSA +8.9—wk 13

Model on TLSA games: 4–1 ATS at the early week line · as the favorite 1–0 · as the dog 3–1 · home 3–0, away 1–1 · avg gap to the market +7.8 · closer than the market 3 of 5

Outlook

from 10,000 season simulations
Projected wins
6.23–3 banked, 6 to play · preseason 3.9
Bowl (6+)40%
9+ wins0%
11+ wins0%

The 6 games left add 3.2 expected wins.

Playoff picture
Reach title game1%
Win conference<1%
Make the CFP0%
First-round bye0%
Win it all0%

Full bracket on the playoffs page.

Offense and defense

6 games · rank of 138 FBS
rank of 138
Offense
EPA per play+0.0970th
Success rate37.4%124th
Pass EPA−0.03107th
Rush EPA+0.2310th
Explosive rate9.9%119th
Quality-drive rate44.1%109th
Points per quality drive4.448th
Defense
EPA allowed+0.0467th
Success allowed40.3%66th
Pass EPA allowed+0.0887th
Rush EPA allowed−0.0158th
Explosive allowed11.5%67th
Havoc rate7.3%110th

Special teams, luck and schedule

through the latest board
rank of 138
Special teams & luck
Special teams EPA / game−0.282nd
Turnover margin+711th · exp. +7.5
Field position margin+1.3 yd61st
Hidden points / game+3.8banked
Luck, wins−0.53.5 earned
One-score record1–2flipped 4–2
Rush rate over expected−2.4%79th
Overall
Rating, pts vs average−6.499th
Schedule played−2.998th
Schedule remaining−7.1106th
Full schedule−5.2102nd
Pregame expected wins1.3of 6

Ranking by week

ours vs the AP poll
151025Wk 0Wk 2Wk 4Wk 6
Ours 99th · −6.4Week 6
Where they sit · offense vs defensepinch or ⌘/ctrl + scroll to zoom · drag to move · double-tap to reset
−0.200.00+0.20FBS averageStanfordHawai'iFlorida StateNew Mexico StateEastern MichiganSacramento StateNorth Dakota StateJacksonville StateVirginiaNC StateUSCSan José StateUNLVMemphisTCUNorth CarolinaUCFDelawareKennesaw StateBuffaloMinnesotaMissouriUtahRutgersMassachusettsWake ForestAkronGeorgia TechColoradoIllinoisUABFresno StatePurdueGeorgia StateOklahomaUTEPMichigan StateToledoMiamiKansasTexas A&MMissouri StateSouth AlabamaGeorgia SouthernSouth FloridaFlorida InternationalRiceUtah StateMiddle TennesseeArkansas StateVanderbiltTexas TechKansas StateVirginia TechMississippi StateUL MonroeLSUClemsonLouisiana TechMichiganWestern MichiganTroySam HoustonFloridaFlorida AtlanticColorado StateWyomingSouthern MissAir ForceTempleGeorgiaTennesseeApp StateCharlotteOregonBoise StateNavyUTSAPenn StateMarshallTexasTexas StateDukeTulaneOklahoma StateArkansasIowaNorthern IllinoisOld DominionIowa StateLouisianaBYUAuburnBaylorNorthwesternMarylandArizonaSan Diego StateNew MexicoCentral MichiganArizona StateNevadaWestern KentuckyCaliforniaUCLAKentuckyCincinnatiBoston CollegeArmySouth CarolinaKent StateOhio StateBall StateWest VirginiaCoastal CarolinaUConnBowling GreenAlabamaEast CarolinaHoustonOregon StateIndianaNorth TexasJames MadisonLibertyNebraskaOhioPittsburghMiami (OH)SyracuseWashingtonWashington StateNotre DameWisconsinOle MissLouisvilleSMUTLSAgood offense, good defense →Offense EPA/play →better defense →
Tulsaoff +0.09 70thdef +0.04 allowed · 67th

Every FBS team, through the latest board. EPA is garbage-time filtered. Tap a logo for its numbers.

Records and stats cover FBS-vs-FBS games only — the games the model grades. Rate stats exclude garbage time (a lead of 38+ in the first half, 28+ in the third quarter, 22+ in the fourth); turnovers are counted whole. Hover a row for its definition.