Week 4 report · Sat, Sep 26 · 2026 Week 4in trend: High totals go under
AP #4Ole Miss
4–1 · Ours #14 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
28–52FinalWe had MISS 31 – FLA 31
AP #21Florida
4–2 · Ours #20 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
Win chanceOur odds before kickoff: how often each team won outright when we played the game out thousands of times from our line.FLA 50%FLA won
FLA 50%FLA wonSpreadOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. First seen at FLA −2.5.FLA −4oursOur computer's point spread for this game, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. Read it like a betting line: −7 means we have that team winning by 7. PK · FLA covered by 20
TotalOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. Our total was 61.1.58.5final 80 · over by 21.5
Our callThe side our number took at the early-week line, graded at that line. Line value is how far the market moved toward it by the last capture before kickoff.No call
Quarterbacksthis game
Trinidad Chambliss25/34 · 298 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- +0.1857th pct
- Comp %
- 73.5
- TD
- 1
- Turnovers
- 11 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 1
Aaron Philo16/23 · 196 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- +0.6290th pct
- Comp %
- 69.6
- TD
- 2
- Turnovers
- 00 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 0
The matchupthis game · ▲▼ better or worse than the unit's usual · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| Ole Missoffense | Played like FLA +9.2Fitted from non-garbage efficiency; describes how the game was played, not who deserved it. | defenseFlorida | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 87th | 55.4%▲2.0 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 55.4%▼11.5 | 13th |
| 77th | +0.27▲0.01 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | +0.27▼0.05 | 23rd |
| 68th | +0.24▼0.07 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | +0.24▼0.02 | 32nd |
| 83rd | +0.30▲0.10 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | +0.30▼0.06 | 17th |
| 16th | 2▼1.0 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 2▲1.3 | 84th |
| Floridaoffense | defenseOle Miss | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 93rd | 60.0%▲17.6 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 60.0%▼19.8 | 7th |
| 91st | +0.43▲0.26 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | +0.43▼0.36 | 9th |
| 91st | +0.62▲0.26 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | +0.62▼0.43 | 9th |
| 87th | +0.33▲0.35 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | +0.33▼0.39 | 13th |
| 79th | 0▲1.0 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 0▼1.0 | 21st |
Team statsthis game · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| Ole MissMISS | FloridaFLA | |
|---|---|---|
| Special teams & field position | ||
| Average startWhere the team's drives started on average. | Own 2524th | Own 3480th |
| Kicking vs expectedKickingPoints from field goals and extra points against what an average kicker makes from the same spots. | +1.6 pts88th | +1.3 pts81st |
| Drives & pace | ||
| PlaysOffensive plays outside garbage time. | 5648th | 7083rd |
| Drive pointsThe part of the final margin the offense moved the ball for (efficiency, success rate, big plays, finishing drives), in points. A margin over the opponent. | −2.744th | +2.757th |
| Turnovers & hidden points | ||
| Penalty first downsPenalty 1st downsFirst downs the team was handed by the opponent's penalties. | 486th | 248th |
| 4th downsPoints from going for it on fourth down, against what the average team gets from the same spots. | +0.3 pts68th | −0.6 pts18th |
| Hidden pointsPoints from outside the offense's drives: turnovers, field position, kicking, fourth downs, penalty first downs, return touchdowns and safeties. A margin over the opponent. FLA +5.5: turnovers +5.2, field position +3.1, kicking −0.2, 4th downs −1.2, penalty first downs −1.5. | −5.525th | +5.575th |
Season so far
Ole Miss4–1 · 48th-hardest schedule
W
vs Louisville41–38missed −6.5
vs Louisville41–38missed −6.5W
vs Charlotte41–9missed −45
vs Charlotte41–9missed −45W
vs LSU32–24covered +3
vs LSU32–24covered +3Lat Florida28–52missed +4
at Florida28–52missed +4W
at Vanderbilt52–17covered −9.5
at Vanderbilt52–17covered −9.5Florida4–2 · 8th-hardest schedule
W
vs Florida Atlantic66–21covered −25.5
vs Florida Atlantic66–21covered −25.5Wvs Campbell52–3missed −51
W
at Auburn44–39covered −2
at Auburn44–39covered −2Wvs Ole Miss52–28covered −4
vs Ole Miss52–28covered −4L
at Missouri17–45missed −5.5
at Missouri17–45missed −5.5L
vs South Carolina19–38missed −10.5
vs South Carolina19–38missed −10.5Model cfb_best · uncertainty ±15.6 · run Sep 26, 2:05 PM EDT · froze at kickoff and graded as-is