Week 4 report · Sat, Sep 26 · 2026 Week 4
AP #23Texas A&M
3–3 · Ours #17 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
6–35FinalWe had TA&M 24 – LSU 23
AP #10LSU
4–2 · Ours #7 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
Win chanceOur odds before kickoff: how often each team won outright when we played the game out thousands of times from our line.TA&M 52%LSU won
TA&M 52%LSU wonSpreadOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. First seen at LSU −8.LSU −8.5oursOur computer's point spread for this game, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. Read it like a betting line: −7 means we have that team winning by 7. +0.9 · LSU covered by 20.5
TotalOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. Our total was 47.9.52final 41 · under by 11
Our callThe side our number took at the early-week line, graded at that line. Line value is how far the market moved toward it by the last capture before kickoff.No call
Quarterbacksthis game
Marcel Reed10/25 · 106 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- −0.544th pct
- Comp %
- 40.0
- TD
- 0
- Turnovers
- 11 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 4
Sam Leavitt17/23 · 312 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- +0.5787th pct
- Comp %
- 73.9
- TD
- 2
- Turnovers
- 11 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 0
The matchupthis game · ▲▼ better or worse than the unit's usual · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| Texas A&Moffense | Played like LSU +30.2Fitted from non-garbage efficiency; describes how the game was played, not who deserved it. | defenseLSU | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13th | 28.9%▼13.5 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 28.9%▼2.5 | 87th |
| 9th | −0.30▼0.29 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | −0.30▼0.09 | 91st |
| 8th | −0.50▼0.45 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | −0.50▲0.05 | 92nd |
| 31st | −0.10▼0.12 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | −0.10▼0.23 | 69th |
| 16th | 2▼0.8 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 2▲0.8 | 84th |
| LSUoffense | defenseTexas A&M | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 66th | 46.5%▲0.3 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 46.5%▼10.2 | 35th |
| 77th | +0.27▲0.20 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | +0.27▼0.39 | 23rd |
| 93rd | +0.65▲0.65 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | +0.65▼0.77 | 7th |
| 28th | −0.12▼0.24 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | −0.12▲0.04 | 72nd |
| 41st | 1▲1.0 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 1 | 59th |
Team statsthis game · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| Texas A&MTA&M | LSULSU | |
|---|---|---|
| Special teams & field position | ||
| Average startWhere the team's drives started on average. | Own 2529th | Own 3062nd |
| Kicking vs expectedKickingPoints from field goals and extra points against what an average kicker makes from the same spots. | +1.7 pts90th | −2.8 pts4th |
| Drives & pace | ||
| PlaysOffensive plays outside garbage time. | 4529th | 4325th |
| Drive pointsThe part of the final margin the offense moved the ball for (efficiency, success rate, big plays, finishing drives), in points. A margin over the opponent. | −24.56th | +24.594th |
| Turnovers & hidden points | ||
| Penalty first downsPenalty 1st downsFirst downs the team was handed by the opponent's penalties. | 05th | 122nd |
| 4th downsPoints from going for it on fourth down, against what the average team gets from the same spots. | −0.7 pts14th | −0.2 pts34th |
| Hidden pointsPoints from outside the offense's drives: turnovers, field position, kicking, fourth downs, penalty first downs, return touchdowns and safeties. A margin over the opponent. LSU +2.6: turnovers +2.6, field position +1.8, kicking −3.2, 4th downs +0.6, penalty first downs +0.8. | −2.636th | +2.664th |
Season so far
Texas A&M3–3 · 27th-hardest schedule
W
vs Missouri State50–0covered −40.5
vs Missouri State50–0covered −40.5W
vs Arizona State48–20covered −14.5
vs Arizona State48–20covered −14.5L
vs Kentucky21–31missed −16.5
vs Kentucky21–31missed −16.5Lat LSU6–35missed +8.5
at LSU6–35missed +8.5W
vs Arkansas34–7covered −13.5
vs Arkansas34–7covered −13.5L
at Missouri6–27missed +3.5
at Missouri6–27missed +3.5LSU4–2 · 18th-hardest schedule
W
vs Clemson51–10covered −10
vs Clemson51–10covered −10W
vs Louisiana Tech45–14missed −35
vs Louisiana Tech45–14missed −35L
at Ole Miss24–32missed −3
at Ole Miss24–32missed −3Wvs Texas A&M35–6covered −8.5
vs Texas A&M35–6covered −8.5Wvs McNeese63–14missed −53.5
Lat Kentucky34–35missed −9.5
at Kentucky34–35missed −9.5Model cfb_best · uncertainty ±15.6 · run Sep 26, 6:05 PM EDT · froze at kickoff and graded as-is