Week 4 report · Sat, Sep 26 · 2026 Week 4in trend: High totals go under
AP #19Missouri
5–1 · Ours #16 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
24–31FinalWe had MIZ 26 – MSST 30
AP #24Mississippi State
4–1 · Ours #12 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
Win chanceOur odds before kickoff: how often each team won outright when we played the game out thousands of times from our line.MSST 61%MSST won
MSST 61%MSST wonSpreadOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. First seen at MSST −3.5.MSST −3.5oursOur computer's point spread for this game, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. Read it like a betting line: −7 means we have that team winning by 7. −4.5 · MSST covered by 3.5
TotalOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. Our total was 56.3.58.5final 55 · under by 3.5
Our callThe side our number took at the early-week line, graded at that line. Line value is how far the market moved toward it by the last capture before kickoff.No call
Quarterbacksthis game
Austin Simmons23/39 · 295 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- +0.2867th pct
- Comp %
- 59.0
- TD
- 3
- Turnovers
- 00 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 2
Kamario Taylor27/38 · 360 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- +0.1857th pct
- Comp %
- 71.1
- TD
- 3
- Turnovers
- 11 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 4
The matchupthis game · ▲▼ better or worse than the unit's usual · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| Missourioffense | Played like MSST +2.0Fitted from non-garbage efficiency; describes how the game was played, not who deserved it. | defenseMississippi State | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 54th | 42.7%▲3.8 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 42.7%▼1.8 | 46th |
| 63rd | +0.15▲0.05 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | +0.15▼0.10 | 37th |
| 69th | +0.26▲0.03 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | +0.26▼0.14 | 31st |
| 48th | +0.02▲0.06 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | +0.02▼0.12 | 52nd |
| 79th | 0▲0.3 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 0▼0.5 | 21st |
| Mississippi Stateoffense | defenseMissouri | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 65th | 46.2%▼4.1 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 46.2%▼15.1 | 35th |
| 63rd | +0.15▼0.08 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | +0.15▼0.37 | 37th |
| 62nd | +0.18▼0.07 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | +0.18▼0.39 | 38th |
| 60th | +0.12▼0.05 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | +0.12▼0.37 | 40th |
| 41st | 1▲0.5 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 1▼0.5 | 59th |
Team statsthis game · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| MissouriMIZ | Mississippi StateMSST | |
|---|---|---|
| Special teams & field position | ||
| Average startWhere the team's drives started on average. | Own 3483rd | Own 2418th |
| Kicking vs expectedKickingPoints from field goals and extra points against what an average kicker makes from the same spots. | −1.1 pts22nd | +0.3 pts54th |
| Drives & pace | ||
| PlaysOffensive plays outside garbage time. | 7592nd | 7895th |
| Drive pointsThe part of the final margin the offense moved the ball for (efficiency, success rate, big plays, finishing drives), in points. A margin over the opponent. | −10.324th | +10.376th |
| Turnovers & hidden points | ||
| Penalty first downsPenalty 1st downsFirst downs the team was handed by the opponent's penalties. | 486th | 248th |
| 4th downsPoints from going for it on fourth down, against what the average team gets from the same spots. | −1.0 pts6th | 0.0 pts40th |
| Hidden pointsPoints from outside the offense's drives: turnovers, field position, kicking, fourth downs, penalty first downs, return touchdowns and safeties. A margin over the opponent. MIZ +5.6: turnovers +2.6, field position +3.7, kicking −1.0, 4th downs −1.3, penalty first downs +1.5. | +5.675th | −5.625th |
Season so far
Missouri5–1 · 25th-hardest schedule
Wvs Arkansas-Pine Bluff54–14missed −55.5
W
at Kansas38–21covered −4
at Kansas38–21covered −4W
vs Troy27–17missed −27
vs Troy27–17missed −27Lat Mississippi State24–31missed +3.5
at Mississippi State24–31missed +3.5W
vs Florida45–17covered +5.5
vs Florida45–17covered +5.5W
vs Texas A&M27–6covered −3.5
vs Texas A&M27–6covered −3.5Mississippi State4–1 · 23rd-hardest schedule
W
vs UL Monroe62–13covered −28.5
vs UL Monroe62–13covered −28.5W
at Minnesota38–13covered PK
at Minnesota38–13covered PKW
at South Carolina41–34covered +3
at South Carolina41–34covered +3Wvs Missouri31–24covered −3.5
vs Missouri31–24covered −3.5L
vs Alabama23–56missed +5.5
vs Alabama23–56missed +5.5Model cfb_best · uncertainty ±15.6 · run Sep 26, 6:05 PM EDT · froze at kickoff and graded as-is