Week 4 report · Sat, Sep 26 · 2026 Week 4
AP #1Texas
4–1 · Ours #9 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
20–17FinalWe had TEX 31 – TENN 25
AP #14Tennessee
5–1 · Ours #11 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
Win chanceOur odds before kickoff: how often each team won outright when we played the game out thousands of times from our line.TEX 65%TEX won
TEX 65%TEX wonSpreadOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. First seen at TEX −5.5.TEX −5.5oursOur computer's point spread for this game, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. Read it like a betting line: −7 means we have that team winning by 7. −6.3 · TENN covered by 2.5
TotalOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. Our total was 56.1.55final 37 · under by 18
Our callThe side our number took at the early-week line, graded at that line. Line value is how far the market moved toward it by the last capture before kickoff.No call
Quarterbacksthis game
Arch Manning14/19 · 201 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- −0.2418th pct
- Comp %
- 73.7
- TD
- 0
- Turnovers
- 11 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 6
Faizon Brandon17/29 · 145 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- −0.408th pct
- Comp %
- 58.6
- TD
- 1
- Turnovers
- 00 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 9
The matchupthis game · ▲▼ better or worse than the unit's usual · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| Texasoffense | Played like TEX +1.1Fitted from non-garbage efficiency; describes how the game was played, not who deserved it. | defenseTennessee | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31st | 36.4%▼9.2 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 36.4%▲4.9 | 69th |
| 22nd | −0.15▼0.18 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | −0.15▲0.05 | 78th |
| 23rd | −0.24▼0.27 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | −0.24▼0.04 | 77th |
| 33rd | −0.08▼0.09 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | −0.08▲0.20 | 67th |
| 41st | 1▲0.3 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 1▼0.3 | 59th |
| Tennesseeoffense | defenseTexas | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16th | 30.3%▼16.4 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 30.3%▲4.7 | 84th |
| 21st | −0.17▼0.31 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | −0.17▼0.01 | 79th |
| 18th | −0.31▼0.14 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | −0.31▲0.26 | 82nd |
| 46th | +0.01▼0.32 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | +0.01▼0.34 | 54th |
| 79th | 0▲0.8 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 0▼1.0 | 21st |
Team statsthis game · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| TexasTEX | TennesseeTENN | |
|---|---|---|
| Special teams & field position | ||
| Average startWhere the team's drives started on average. | Own 3376th | Own 2312th |
| Kicking vs expectedKickingPoints from field goals and extra points against what an average kicker makes from the same spots. | +1.2 pts79th | +0.5 pts59th |
| Drives & pace | ||
| PlaysOffensive plays outside garbage time. | 5546th | 7693rd |
| Drive pointsThe part of the final margin the offense moved the ball for (efficiency, success rate, big plays, finishing drives), in points. A margin over the opponent. | +10.376th | −10.324th |
| Turnovers & hidden points | ||
| Penalty first downsPenalty 1st downsFirst downs the team was handed by the opponent's penalties. | 122nd | 594th |
| 4th downsPoints from going for it on fourth down, against what the average team gets from the same spots. | 0.0 pts51st | −0.3 pts31st |
| Return touchdownsReturn TDsDefensive and special-teams touchdowns. | 042nd | 192nd |
| Hidden pointsPoints from outside the offense's drives: turnovers, field position, kicking, fourth downs, penalty first downs, return touchdowns and safeties. A margin over the opponent. TENN +5.4: turnovers +2.6, field position −3.6, kicking −0.5, 4th downs −0.4, penalty first downs +3.1, return touchdowns +4.2. | −5.426th | +5.474th |
Season so far
Texas4–1 · 7th-hardest schedule
W
vs Texas State59–7covered −29.5
vs Texas State59–7covered −29.5W
vs Ohio State24–23missed −2
vs Ohio State24–23missed −2W
vs UTSA30–6missed −30
vs UTSA30–6missed −30Wat Tennessee20–17missed −5.5
at Tennessee20–17missed −5.5L
at Oklahoma24–27missed −7.5
at Oklahoma24–27missed −7.5Tennessee5–1 · 50th-hardest schedule
Wvs Furman56–9missed −49
W
at Georgia Tech45–24covered −12
at Georgia Tech45–24covered −12W
vs Kennesaw State42–9missed −35.5
vs Kennesaw State42–9missed −35.5Lvs Texas17–20covered +5.5
vs Texas17–20covered +5.5W
vs Auburn24–14covered −6.5QB change mid-game
vs Auburn24–14covered −6.5QB change mid-gameW
at Arkansas24–17missed −13.5
at Arkansas24–17missed −13.5Model cfb_best · uncertainty ±15.6 · run Sep 26, 10:05 AM EDT · froze at kickoff and graded as-is