Week 5 report · Sat, Oct 3 · 2026 Week 5
Vanderbilt
3–3 · Ours #47 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
14–38FinalWe had VAN 18 – UGA 40
AP #2Georgia
6–0 · Ours #2 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
Win chanceOur odds before kickoff: how often each team won outright when we played the game out thousands of times from our line.UGA 91%UGA won
UGA 91%UGA wonSpreadOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. First seen at UGA −25.UGA −26oursOur computer's point spread for this game, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. Read it like a betting line: −7 means we have that team winning by 7. −22.1 · VAN covered by 2
TotalOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. Our total was 57.8.50final 52 · over by 2
Our callThe side our number took at the early-week line, graded at that line. Line value is how far the market moved toward it by the last capture before kickoff.VAN +24.5Wlost 1.5 to the close
VAN +24.5Wlost 1.5 to the closeQuarterbacksthis game
Blaze Berlowitz12/23 · 190 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- 0.0039th pct
- Comp %
- 52.2
- TD
- 1
- Turnovers
- 11 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 1
Gunner Stockton25/32 · 295 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- +0.4983rd pct
- Comp %
- 78.1
- TD
- 4
- Turnovers
- 00 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 1
The matchupthis game · ▲▼ better or worse than the unit's usual · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| Vanderbiltoffense | Played like UGA +20.6Fitted from non-garbage efficiency; describes how the game was played, not who deserved it. | defenseGeorgia | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23rd | 33.3%▼6.2 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 33.3%▼1.5 | 77th |
| 40th | −0.01▼0.09 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | −0.01▼0.24 | 60th |
| 45th | 0.00▼0.02 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | 0.00▼0.29 | 56th |
| 40th | −0.03▼0.16 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | −0.03▼0.20 | 60th |
| 41st | 1▲0.3 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 1▼0.8 | 59th |
| Georgiaoffense | defenseVanderbilt | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 92nd | 59.3%▲7.5 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 59.3%▼17.0 | 9th |
| 79th | +0.29▼0.02 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | +0.29▼0.24 | 21st |
| 83rd | +0.45▲0.08 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | +0.45▼0.38 | 18th |
| 58th | +0.09▼0.07 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | +0.09▼0.06 | 42nd |
| 79th | 0▲0.5 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 0▼1.5 | 21st |
Team statsthis game · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| VanderbiltVAN | GeorgiaUGA | |
|---|---|---|
| Special teams & field position | ||
| Average startWhere the team's drives started on average. | Own 2636th | Own 2847th |
| Kicking vs expectedKickingPoints from field goals and extra points against what an average kicker makes from the same spots. | −1.1 pts22nd | +0.8 pts68th |
| Drives & pace | ||
| PlaysOffensive plays outside garbage time. | 4529th | 5956th |
| Drive pointsThe part of the final margin the offense moved the ball for (efficiency, success rate, big plays, finishing drives), in points. A margin over the opponent. | −17.513th | +17.587th |
| Turnovers & hidden points | ||
| Penalty first downsPenalty 1st downsFirst downs the team was handed by the opponent's penalties. | 248th | 248th |
| 4th downsPoints from going for it on fourth down, against what the average team gets from the same spots. | −0.3 pts31st | 0.0 pts51st |
| Hidden pointsPoints from outside the offense's drives: turnovers, field position, kicking, fourth downs, penalty first downs, return touchdowns and safeties. A margin over the opponent. UGA +4.8: turnovers +2.6, field position +0.5, kicking +1.3, 4th downs +0.4. | −4.828th | +4.872nd |
Season so far
Vanderbilt3–3 · 15th-hardest schedule
Wvs Austin Peay28–9missed −28.5
W
vs Delaware35–26missed −20.5QB change mid-game
vs Delaware35–26missed −20.5QB change mid-gameW
vs NC State35–31covered −3
vs NC State35–31covered −3L
at Auburn15–21covered +10
at Auburn15–21covered +10Lat Georgia14–38covered +26
at Georgia14–38covered +26L
vs Ole Miss17–52missed +9.5
vs Ole Miss17–52missed +9.5Georgia6–0 · 35th-hardest schedule
Wvs Tennessee State63–3covered −48.5
W
vs Western Kentucky70–20covered −40.5
vs Western Kentucky70–20covered −40.5W
at Arkansas45–17covered −24.5
at Arkansas45–17covered −24.5W
vs Oklahoma41–13covered −12
vs Oklahoma41–13covered −12Wvs Vanderbilt38–14missed −26
vs Vanderbilt38–14missed −26W
at Alabama20–17covered +2.5
at Alabama20–17covered +2.5Model cfb_scratch · uncertainty ±15.5 · run Oct 3, 7:15 AM EDT · froze at kickoff and graded as-is