Oct 13, 7:43 AM EDTstats the morning after a game; scores and grades the same night

Vanderbilt

3–3 FBS · SEC · this season
Rating
−0.2
Rank
69
Résumé
68
Projected wins
4.9▼ 2.1 vs preseason
CFP odds
0%

Schedule

our line · the market · graded at the early week line
DateOpponentOur lineOursMarketResultPerf.Our call
Sat, Sep 59/5Austin PeayAustin PeayVAN −31.4VAN −28.5W 28–976
Sat, Sep 129/12DelawareDELVAN −25.5VAN −20.5W 35–2660DEL · W
Sat, Sep 199/19NC StateNCSUVAN −6.0VAN −4.5W 35–3165VAN · L
Sat, Sep 269/26at AuburnAUBVAN +1.2VAN +9.5L 15–2156VAN · W
Sat, Oct 310/3at GeorgiaUGAVAN +22.1VAN +24.5L 14–3831VAN · W
Sat, Oct 1010/10Ole MissMISSVAN +2.7VAN +10.0L 17–5222VAN · L
Sat, Oct 1710/17ArkansasARKVAN −5.9VAN −6.0ARK +6.0Pass
Sat, Oct 2410/24at KentuckyUKVAN +9.8—wk 8
Sat, Nov 2111/21at FloridaFLAVAN +10.5—wk 12
Sat, Nov 2811/28TennesseeTENNVAN +7.2VAN +3.0wk 13

Model on VAN games: 3–2 ATS at the early week line · as the favorite 0–1 · as the dog 3–1 · home 0–2, away 3–0 · avg gap to the market +5.5 · closer than the market 1 of 5

Outlook

from 10,000 season simulations
Projected wins
4.93–3 banked, 6 to play · preseason 7.0
Bowl (6+)9%
9+ wins0%
11+ wins0%

The 6 games left add 1.9 expected wins.

Playoff picture
Reach title game<1%
Win conference0%
Make the CFP0%
First-round bye0%
Win it all0%

Full bracket on the playoffs page.

Offense and defense

6 games · rank of 138 FBS
rank of 138
Offense
EPA per play+0.0971st
Success rate40.9%98th
Pass EPA+0.0777th
Rush EPA+0.1250th
Explosive rate11.3%105th
Quality-drive rate48.3%86th
Points per quality drive3.4110th
Defense
EPA allowed+0.0576th
Success allowed42.9%90th
Pass EPA allowed+0.0679th
Rush EPA allowed+0.0375th
Explosive allowed12.1%83rd
Havoc rate8.1%95th

Special teams, luck and schedule

through the latest board
rank of 138
Special teams & luck
Special teams EPA / game−0.593rd
Turnover margin069th · exp. −2.0
Field position margin+2.8 yd46th
Hidden points / game−0.2gave up
Luck, wins−0.03.0 earned
One-score record1–1flipped 3–3
Rush rate over expected+0.2%54th
Overall
Rating, pts vs average−0.269th
Schedule played+6.815th
Schedule remaining+9.815th
Full schedule+8.414th
Pregame expected wins2.0of 6

Ranking by week

ours vs the AP poll
151025Wk 0Wk 2Wk 4Wk 6
Ours 69th · −0.2Week 6
Where they sit · offense vs defensepinch or ⌘/ctrl + scroll to zoom · drag to move · double-tap to reset
−0.200.00+0.20FBS averageStanfordHawai'iFlorida StateNew Mexico StateEastern MichiganSacramento StateNorth Dakota StateJacksonville StateVirginiaNC StateUSCSan José StateUNLVMemphisTCUNorth CarolinaUCFDelawareKennesaw StateBuffaloMinnesotaMissouriUtahRutgersMassachusettsWake ForestAkronGeorgia TechColoradoIllinoisUABFresno StatePurdueGeorgia StateOklahomaUTEPMichigan StateToledoMiamiKansasTexas A&MMissouri StateSouth AlabamaGeorgia SouthernSouth FloridaFlorida InternationalRiceUtah StateMiddle TennesseeArkansas StateTexas TechKansas StateVirginia TechMississippi StateUL MonroeLSUClemsonLouisiana TechMichiganWestern MichiganTroySam HoustonFloridaFlorida AtlanticColorado StateWyomingSouthern MissAir ForceTempleGeorgiaTennesseeApp StateCharlotteOregonBoise StateNavyUTSAPenn StateMarshallTexasTexas StateDukeTulaneTulsaOklahoma StateArkansasIowaNorthern IllinoisOld DominionIowa StateLouisianaBYUAuburnBaylorNorthwesternMarylandArizonaSan Diego StateNew MexicoCentral MichiganArizona StateNevadaWestern KentuckyCaliforniaUCLAKentuckyCincinnatiBoston CollegeArmySouth CarolinaKent StateOhio StateBall StateWest VirginiaCoastal CarolinaUConnBowling GreenAlabamaEast CarolinaHoustonOregon StateIndianaNorth TexasJames MadisonLibertyNebraskaOhioPittsburghMiami (OH)SyracuseWashingtonWashington StateNotre DameWisconsinOle MissLouisvilleSMUVANgood offense, good defense →Offense EPA/play →better defense →
Vanderbiltoff +0.09 71stdef +0.05 allowed · 76th

Every FBS team, through the latest board. EPA is garbage-time filtered. Tap a logo for its numbers.

Records and stats cover FBS-vs-FBS games only — the games the model grades. Rate stats exclude garbage time (a lead of 38+ in the first half, 28+ in the third quarter, 22+ in the fourth); turnovers are counted whole. Hover a row for its definition.