Oct 13, 7:43 AM EDTstats the morning after a game; scores and grades the same night

Georgia

6–0 FBS · SEC · this season
Rating
+25.9
Rank
1
Résumé
3
Projected wins
11.1▲ 3.4 vs preseason
CFP odds
97%

Schedule

our line · the market · graded at the early week line
DateOpponentOur lineOursMarketResultPerf.Our call
Sat, Sep 59/5Tennessee StateTennessee StateUGA −31.4UGA −48.5W 63–392
Sat, Sep 129/12Western KentuckyWKUUGA −37.5UGA −40.0W 70–2098WKU · L
Sat, Sep 199/19at ArkansasARKUGA −26.9UGA −24.5W 45–1783UGA · W
Sat, Sep 269/26OklahomaOUUGA −14.8UGA −13.5W 41–1365UGA · W
Sat, Oct 310/3VanderbiltVANUGA −22.1UGA −24.5W 38–1469VAN · W
Sat, Oct 1010/10at AlabamaALAUGA −1.8UGA +1.5W 20–1763UGA · W
Sat, Oct 1710/17AuburnAUBUGA −21.4UGA −20.5UGA −20.5Pass
Sat, Oct 3110/31FloridaFLAUGA −17.2UGA −12.5wk 9
Sat, Nov 711/7at Ole MissMISSUGA −10.4UGA −4.5wk 10
Sat, Nov 1411/14MissouriMIZUGA −12.3—wk 11
Sat, Nov 2111/21at South CarolinaSCUGA −17.5—wk 12

Model on UGA games: 4–1 ATS at the early week line · as the favorite 2–0 · as the dog 2–1 · home 1–0, away 3–1 · avg gap to the market +3.3 · closer than the market 4 of 5

Outlook

from 10,000 season simulations
Projected wins
11.16–0 banked, 6 to play · preseason 7.7
Bowl (6+)100%
9+ wins95%
11+ wins39%

The 6 games left add 5.1 expected wins.

Playoff picture
Reach title game92%
Win conference55%
Make the CFP97%
First-round bye77%
Win it all21%
  • A CFP bid: 98% with a win vs Auburn, 85% with a loss.

Full bracket on the playoffs page.

Offense and defense

6 games · rank of 138 FBS
rank of 138
Offense
EPA per play+0.305th
Success rate54.1%2nd
Pass EPA+0.3713th
Rush EPA+0.2311th
Explosive rate17.9%4th
Quality-drive rate63.8%10th
Points per quality drive5.91st
Defense
EPA allowed−0.176th
Success allowed32.5%5th
Pass EPA allowed−0.2012th
Rush EPA allowed−0.1414th
Explosive allowed9.3%22nd
Havoc rate12.2%17th

Special teams, luck and schedule

through the latest board
rank of 138
Special teams & luck
Special teams EPA / game+2.227th
Turnover margin+527th · exp. +1.0
Field position margin+7.1 yd16th
Hidden points / game+5.7banked
Luck, wins+0.35.7 earned
One-score record1–0flipped 5–1
Rush rate over expected−4.7%106th
Overall
Rating, pts vs average+25.91st
Schedule played+3.735th
Schedule remaining+9.119th
Full schedule+6.620th
Pregame expected wins4.1of 6

Ranking by week

ours vs the AP poll
151025Wk 0Wk 2Wk 4Wk 6
Ours 1st · +25.9AP 1stWeek 6
Where they sit · offense vs defensepinch or ⌘/ctrl + scroll to zoom · drag to move · double-tap to reset
−0.200.00+0.20FBS averageStanfordHawai'iFlorida StateNew Mexico StateEastern MichiganSacramento StateNorth Dakota StateJacksonville StateVirginiaNC StateUSCSan José StateUNLVMemphisTCUNorth CarolinaUCFDelawareKennesaw StateBuffaloMinnesotaMissouriUtahRutgersMassachusettsWake ForestAkronGeorgia TechColoradoIllinoisUABFresno StatePurdueGeorgia StateOklahomaUTEPMichigan StateToledoMiamiKansasTexas A&MMissouri StateSouth AlabamaGeorgia SouthernSouth FloridaFlorida InternationalRiceUtah StateMiddle TennesseeArkansas StateVanderbiltTexas TechKansas StateVirginia TechMississippi StateUL MonroeLSUClemsonLouisiana TechMichiganWestern MichiganTroySam HoustonFloridaFlorida AtlanticColorado StateWyomingSouthern MissAir ForceTempleTennesseeApp StateCharlotteOregonBoise StateNavyUTSAPenn StateMarshallTexasTexas StateDukeTulaneTulsaOklahoma StateArkansasIowaNorthern IllinoisOld DominionIowa StateLouisianaBYUAuburnBaylorNorthwesternMarylandArizonaSan Diego StateNew MexicoCentral MichiganArizona StateNevadaWestern KentuckyCaliforniaUCLAKentuckyCincinnatiBoston CollegeArmySouth CarolinaKent StateOhio StateBall StateWest VirginiaCoastal CarolinaUConnBowling GreenAlabamaEast CarolinaHoustonOregon StateIndianaNorth TexasJames MadisonLibertyNebraskaOhioPittsburghMiami (OH)SyracuseWashingtonWashington StateNotre DameWisconsinOle MissLouisvilleSMUUGAgood offense, good defense →Offense EPA/play →better defense →
Georgiaoff +0.30 5thdef −0.17 allowed · 6th

Every FBS team, through the latest board. EPA is garbage-time filtered. Tap a logo for its numbers.

Records and stats cover FBS-vs-FBS games only — the games the model grades. Rate stats exclude garbage time (a lead of 38+ in the first half, 28+ in the third quarter, 22+ in the fourth); turnovers are counted whole. Hover a row for its definition.