Week 5 report · Sat, Oct 3 · 2026 Week 5in trend: High totals go under
AP #7Alabama
5–1 · Ours #4 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
56–23FinalWe had ALA 33 – MSST 26
AP #16Mississippi State
4–1 · Ours #12 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
Win chanceOur odds before kickoff: how often each team won outright when we played the game out thousands of times from our line.ALA 66%ALA won
ALA 66%ALA wonSpreadOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. First seen at ALA −5.5.ALA −5.5oursOur computer's point spread for this game, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. Read it like a betting line: −7 means we have that team winning by 7. −6.6 · ALA covered by 27.5
TotalOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. Our total was 59.5.62.5final 79 · over by 16.5
Our callThe side our number took at the early-week line, graded at that line. Line value is how far the market moved toward it by the last capture before kickoff.ALA −6Wlost 0.5 to the close
ALA −6Wlost 0.5 to the closeQuarterbacksthis game
Keelon Russell16/22 · 285 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- +0.6692nd pct
- Comp %
- 72.7
- TD
- 3
- Turnovers
- 00 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 3
Kamario Taylor19/34 · 258 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- −0.0634th pct
- Comp %
- 55.9
- TD
- 3
- Turnovers
- 22 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 5
The matchupthis game · ▲▼ better or worse than the unit's usual · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| Alabamaoffense | Played like ALA +24.6Fitted from non-garbage efficiency; describes how the game was played, not who deserved it. | defenseMississippi State | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 89th | 56.5%▲8.1 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 56.5%▼19.1 | 11th |
| 89th | +0.40▲0.12 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | +0.40▼0.41 | 12th |
| 89th | +0.57▲0.25 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | +0.57▼0.53 | 12th |
| 74th | +0.21▼0.04 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | +0.21▼0.37 | 26th |
| 79th | 0▲1.0 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 0▼0.5 | 21st |
| Mississippi Stateoffense | defenseAlabama | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29th | 35.6%▼17.4 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 35.6%▲0.2 | 71st |
| 31st | −0.08▼0.37 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | −0.08▲0.05 | 69th |
| 38th | −0.06▼0.37 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | −0.06▲0.14 | 62nd |
| 29th | −0.12▼0.34 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | −0.12▲0.01 | 71st |
| 1st | 4▼3.3 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 4▲2.2 | 99th |
Team statsthis game · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| AlabamaALA | Mississippi StateMSST | |
|---|---|---|
| Special teams & field position | ||
| Average startWhere the team's drives started on average. | Own 3377th | Own 3063rd |
| Kicking vs expectedKickingPoints from field goals and extra points against what an average kicker makes from the same spots. | 0.0 pts39th | +0.5 pts59th |
| Drives & pace | ||
| PlaysOffensive plays outside garbage time. | 4631st | 5956th |
| Drive pointsThe part of the final margin the offense moved the ball for (efficiency, success rate, big plays, finishing drives), in points. A margin over the opponent. | +19.890th | −19.810th |
| Turnovers & hidden points | ||
| Penalty first downsPenalty 1st downsFirst downs the team was handed by the opponent's penalties. | 371st | 371st |
| 4th downsPoints from going for it on fourth down, against what the average team gets from the same spots. | 0.0 pts51st | +0.9 pts93rd |
| Return touchdownsReturn TDsDefensive and special-teams touchdowns. | 192nd | 042nd |
| Hidden pointsPoints from outside the offense's drives: turnovers, field position, kicking, fourth downs, penalty first downs, return touchdowns and safeties. A margin over the opponent. ALA +11.3: turnovers +7.8, field position +0.9, kicking −0.4, 4th downs −1.2, return touchdowns +4.2. | +11.392nd | −11.38th |
Season so far
Alabama5–1 · 5th-hardest schedule
W
vs East Carolina48–10covered −28
vs East Carolina48–10covered −28W
at Kentucky45–17covered −9
at Kentucky45–17covered −9W
vs Florida State50–36missed −19
vs Florida State50–36missed −19W
vs South Carolina49–18covered −12.5
vs South Carolina49–18covered −12.5Wat Mississippi State56–23covered −5.5
at Mississippi State56–23covered −5.5L
vs Georgia17–20missed −2.5
vs Georgia17–20missed −2.5Mississippi State4–1 · 23rd-hardest schedule
W
vs UL Monroe62–13covered −28.5
vs UL Monroe62–13covered −28.5W
at Minnesota38–13covered PK
at Minnesota38–13covered PKWat South Carolina41–34covered +3
at South Carolina41–34covered +3W
vs Missouri31–24covered −3.5
vs Missouri31–24covered −3.5Lvs Alabama23–56missed +5.5
vs Alabama23–56missed +5.5Model cfb_scratch · uncertainty ±15.5 · run Oct 3, 7:15 AM EDT · froze at kickoff and graded as-is