Week 5 report · Sat, Oct 3 · 2026 Week 5
AP #24Kentucky
5–1 · Ours #26 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
35–34FinalWe had UK 27 – SC 27
South Carolina
3–3 · Ours #37 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
Win chanceOur odds before kickoff: how often each team won outright when we played the game out thousands of times from our line.SC 51%UK won
SC 51%UK wonSpreadOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. First seen at SC −3.5.SC −2.5oursOur computer's point spread for this game, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. Read it like a betting line: −7 means we have that team winning by 7. −0.5 · UK covered by 3.5
TotalOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. Our total was 54.0.52.5final 69 · over by 16.5
Our callThe side our number took at the early-week line, graded at that line. Line value is how far the market moved toward it by the last capture before kickoff.UK +2.5Wmatched the close
UK +2.5Wmatched the closeQuarterbacksthis game
Kenny Minchey28/41 · 272 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- +0.1250th pct
- Comp %
- 68.3
- TD
- 3
- Turnovers
- 00 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 3
LaNorris Sellers20/37 · 226 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- +0.1352nd pct
- Comp %
- 54.1
- TD
- 2
- Turnovers
- 00 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 1
The matchupthis game · ▲▼ better or worse than the unit's usual · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| Kentuckyoffense | Played like SC +7.0Fitted from non-garbage efficiency; describes how the game was played, not who deserved it. | defenseSouth Carolina | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 68th | 47.3%▲1.2 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 47.3%▼6.2 | 32nd |
| 54th | +0.08▲0.04 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | +0.08▲0.09 | 46th |
| 54th | +0.12▲0.13 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | +0.12▲0.16 | 46th |
| 50th | +0.04▼0.09 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | +0.04 | 50th |
| 79th | 0▲0.5 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 0▼1.0 | 21st |
| South Carolinaoffense | defenseKentucky | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 71st | 48.4%▲2.8 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 48.4%▼4.8 | 29th |
| 72nd | +0.21▼0.01 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | +0.21▼0.17 | 28th |
| 56th | +0.13▼0.10 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | +0.13▼0.16 | 44th |
| 85th | +0.32▲0.12 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | +0.32▼0.18 | 15th |
| 79th | 0▲1.0 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 0▼2.0 | 21st |
Team statsthis game · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| KentuckyUK | South CarolinaSC | |
|---|---|---|
| Special teams & field position | ||
| Average startWhere the team's drives started on average. | Own 3273rd | Own 3168th |
| Kicking vs expectedKickingPoints from field goals and extra points against what an average kicker makes from the same spots. | +1.2 pts79th | +1.5 pts85th |
| Drives & pace | ||
| PlaysOffensive plays outside garbage time. | 7490th | 6470th |
| Drive pointsThe part of the final margin the offense moved the ball for (efficiency, success rate, big plays, finishing drives), in points. A margin over the opponent. | +0.251st | −0.250th |
| Turnovers & hidden points | ||
| Penalty first downsPenalty 1st downsFirst downs the team was handed by the opponent's penalties. | 248th | 248th |
| 4th downsPoints from going for it on fourth down, against what the average team gets from the same spots. | +0.7 pts87th | −0.6 pts18th |
| Hidden pointsPoints from outside the offense's drives: turnovers, field position, kicking, fourth downs, penalty first downs, return touchdowns and safeties. A margin over the opponent. UK +7.0: turnovers +5.2, field position +0.3, kicking −0.2, 4th downs +1.7. | +7.080th | −7.021st |
Season so far
Kentucky5–1 · 2nd-hardest schedule
Wvs Youngstown State45–13covered −22.5
L
vs Alabama17–45missed +9
vs Alabama17–45missed +9W
at Texas A&M31–21covered +16.5
at Texas A&M31–21covered +16.5W
vs South Alabama45–21covered −20.5
vs South Alabama45–21covered −20.5Wat South Carolina35–34covered +2.5
at South Carolina35–34covered +2.5W
vs LSU35–34covered +9.5
vs LSU35–34covered +9.5South Carolina3–3 · 16th-hardest schedule
W
vs Kent State57–0covered −35.5
vs Kent State57–0covered −35.5Wvs Towson45–9missed −44.5
L
vs Mississippi State34–41missed −3
vs Mississippi State34–41missed −3Lat Alabama18–49missed +12.5
at Alabama18–49missed +12.5Lvs Kentucky34–35missed −2.5
vs Kentucky34–35missed −2.5W
at Florida38–19covered +10.5
at Florida38–19covered +10.5Model cfb_scratch · uncertainty ±15.5 · run Oct 3, 7:15 AM EDT · froze at kickoff and graded as-is