Week 5 report · Sat, Oct 3 · 2026 Week 5
Auburn
3–2 · Ours #46 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
14–24FinalWe had AUB 24 – TENN 28
AP #17Tennessee
5–1 · Ours #11 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
Win chanceOur odds before kickoff: how often each team won outright when we played the game out thousands of times from our line.TENN 61%TENN won
TENN 61%TENN wonSpreadOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. First seen at TENN −7.5.TENN −6.5oursOur computer's point spread for this game, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. Read it like a betting line: −7 means we have that team winning by 7. −4.4 · TENN covered by 3.5
TotalOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. Our total was 52.1.54final 38 · under by 16
Our callThe side our number took at the early-week line, graded at that line. Line value is how far the market moved toward it by the last capture before kickoff.AUB +7Lbeat the close by 0.5
AUB +7Lbeat the close by 0.5Quarterbacksthis game
Byrum Brown22/33 · 159 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- −0.3014th pct
- Comp %
- 66.7
- TD
- 1
- Turnovers
- 22 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 4
George MacIntyre8/10 · 86 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- −0.0732nd pct
- Comp %
- 80.0
- TD
- 0
- Turnovers
- 00 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 1
Replaced Faizon Brandon in Q2
The matchupthis game · ▲▼ better or worse than the unit's usual · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| Auburnoffense | Played like TENN +5.9Fitted from non-garbage efficiency; describes how the game was played, not who deserved it. | defenseTennessee | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 46th | 40.6%▼1.4 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 40.6%▼0.3 | 55th |
| 34th | −0.06▼0.12 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | −0.06▼0.07 | 66th |
| 18th | −0.30▼0.38 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | −0.30▲0.03 | 82nd |
| 82nd | +0.28▲0.21 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | +0.28▼0.25 | 18th |
| 16th | 2▼0.8 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 2▲1.0 | 84th |
| Tennesseeoffense | defenseAuburn | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 52nd | 42.2%▼1.5 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 42.2%▼3.4 | 48th |
| 50th | +0.05▼0.04 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | +0.05▼0.10 | 51st |
| 4th | −0.66▼0.58 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | −0.66▲0.68 | 96th |
| 91st | +0.40▲0.16 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | +0.40▼0.48 | 9th |
| 41st | 1▼0.5 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 1▼0.3 | 59th |
Team statsthis game · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| AuburnAUB | TennesseeTENN | |
|---|---|---|
| Special teams & field position | ||
| Average startWhere the team's drives started on average. | Own 2421st | Own 3376th |
| Kicking vs expectedKickingPoints from field goals and extra points against what an average kicker makes from the same spots. | 0.0 pts39th | +0.6 pts63rd |
| Drives & pace | ||
| PlaysOffensive plays outside garbage time. | 6470th | 6470th |
| Drive pointsThe part of the final margin the offense moved the ball for (efficiency, success rate, big plays, finishing drives), in points. A margin over the opponent. | −3.342nd | +3.358th |
| Turnovers & hidden points | ||
| Penalty first downsPenalty 1st downsFirst downs the team was handed by the opponent's penalties. | 05th | 371st |
| 4th downsPoints from going for it on fourth down, against what the average team gets from the same spots. | −0.7 pts14th | +0.6 pts82nd |
| Hidden pointsPoints from outside the offense's drives: turnovers, field position, kicking, fourth downs, penalty first downs, return touchdowns and safeties. A margin over the opponent. TENN +10.1: turnovers +2.6, field position +3.0, kicking +0.4, 4th downs +1.7, penalty first downs +2.3. | −10.112th | +10.188th |
Season so far
Auburn3–2 · 39th-hardest schedule
W
vs Baylor17–16missed −6.5
vs Baylor17–16missed −6.5W
vs Southern Miss43–8covered −32.5
vs Southern Miss43–8covered −32.5L
vs Florida39–44missed +2
vs Florida39–44missed +2W
vs Vanderbilt21–15missed −10
vs Vanderbilt21–15missed −10Lat Tennessee14–24missed +6.5
at Tennessee14–24missed +6.5Tennessee5–1 · 50th-hardest schedule
Wvs Furman56–9missed −49
W
at Georgia Tech45–24covered −12
at Georgia Tech45–24covered −12W
vs Kennesaw State42–9missed −35.5
vs Kennesaw State42–9missed −35.5L
vs Texas17–20covered +5.5
vs Texas17–20covered +5.5Wvs Auburn24–14covered −6.5QB change mid-game
vs Auburn24–14covered −6.5QB change mid-gameW
at Arkansas24–17missed −13.5
at Arkansas24–17missed −13.5Model cfb_scratch · uncertainty ±15.5 · run Oct 3, 7:15 AM EDT · froze at kickoff and graded as-is