Week 6 report · Sat, Oct 10 · 2026 Week 6
AP #15Tennessee
5–1 · Ours #12 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
24–17FinalWe had TENN 33 – ARK 22
Arkansas
2–4 · Ours #83 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
Win chanceOur odds before kickoff: how often each team won outright when we played the game out thousands of times from our line.TENN 75%TENN won
TENN 75%TENN wonSpreadOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. First seen at TENN −13.5.TENN −13.5oursOur computer's point spread for this game, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. Read it like a betting line: −7 means we have that team winning by 7. −10.8 · ARK covered by 6.5
TotalOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. Our total was 55.5.51final 41 · under by 10
Our callThe side our number took at the early-week line, graded at that line. Line value is how far the market moved toward it by the last capture before kickoff.ARK +13.5Wmatched the close
ARK +13.5Wmatched the closeQuarterbacksthis game
George MacIntyre18/29 · 247 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- −0.2122nd pct
- Comp %
- 62.1
- TD
- 1
- Turnovers
- 22 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 1
KJ Jackson15/27 · 155 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- −0.2716th pct
- Comp %
- 55.6
- TD
- 1
- Turnovers
- 00 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 2
The matchupthis game · ▲▼ better or worse than the unit's usual · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| Tennesseeoffense | Played like TENN +2.5Fitted from non-garbage efficiency; describes how the game was played, not who deserved it. | defenseArkansas | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 59th | 44.4%▲1.3 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 44.4%▲3.8 | 41st |
| 42nd | 0.00▼0.10 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | 0.00▲0.26 | 58th |
| 26th | −0.21▼0.01 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | −0.21▲0.38 | 74th |
| 71st | +0.19▼0.09 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | +0.19▲0.11 | 29th |
| 16th | 2▼1.8 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 2▲1.5 | 84th |
| Arkansasoffense | defenseTennessee | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 61st | 45.0%▲9.3 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 45.0%▼5.8 | 39th |
| 30th | −0.08▲0.05 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | −0.08▼0.04 | 70th |
| 21st | −0.27▼0.15 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | −0.27▼0.01 | 79th |
| 57th | +0.09▲0.25 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | +0.09▼0.01 | 43rd |
| 41st | 1 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 1▼0.3 | 59th |
Team statsthis game · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| TennesseeTENN | ArkansasARK | |
|---|---|---|
| Special teams & field position | ||
| Average startWhere the team's drives started on average. | Own 3058th | Own 3062nd |
| Kicking vs expectedKickingPoints from field goals and extra points against what an average kicker makes from the same spots. | −0.3 pts28th | −0.6 pts26th |
| Drives & pace | ||
| PlaysOffensive plays outside garbage time. | 6367th | 6059th |
| Drive pointsThe part of the final margin the offense moved the ball for (efficiency, success rate, big plays, finishing drives), in points. A margin over the opponent. | +8.172nd | −8.128th |
| Turnovers & hidden points | ||
| Penalty first downsPenalty 1st downsFirst downs the team was handed by the opponent's penalties. | 248th | 122nd |
| Hidden pointsPoints from outside the offense's drives: turnovers, field position, kicking, fourth downs, penalty first downs, return touchdowns and safeties. A margin over the opponent. ARK +1.8: turnovers +2.6, field position +0.2, kicking −0.2, penalty first downs −0.8. | −1.839th | +1.861st |
Season so far
Tennessee5–1 · 50th-hardest schedule
Wvs Furman56–9missed −49
W
at Georgia Tech45–24covered −12
at Georgia Tech45–24covered −12W
vs Kennesaw State42–9missed −35.5
vs Kennesaw State42–9missed −35.5L
vs Texas17–20covered +5.5
vs Texas17–20covered +5.5W
vs Auburn24–14covered −6.5QB change mid-game
vs Auburn24–14covered −6.5QB change mid-gameWat Arkansas24–17missed −13.5
at Arkansas24–17missed −13.5Arkansas2–4 · 1st-hardest schedule
Wvs North Alabama31–14missed −40.5
L
at Utah10–43missed +13.5
at Utah10–43missed +13.5L
vs Georgia17–45missed +24.5
vs Georgia17–45missed +24.5W
vs Tulsa34–6covered −7
vs Tulsa34–6covered −7L
at Texas A&M7–34missed +13.5
at Texas A&M7–34missed +13.5Lvs Tennessee17–24covered +13.5
vs Tennessee17–24covered +13.5Model cfb_scratch · uncertainty ±15.5 · run Oct 10, 7:15 AM EDT · froze at kickoff and graded as-is