Week 6 report · Sat, Oct 10 · 2026 Week 6in trend: High totals go under
South Carolina
3–3 · Ours #40 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
38–19FinalWe had SC 26 – FLA 35
AP #16Florida
4–2 · Ours #19 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
Win chanceOur odds before kickoff: how often each team won outright when we played the game out thousands of times from our line.FLA 72%SC won
FLA 72%SC wonSpreadOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. First seen at FLA −14.5.FLA −10.5oursOur computer's point spread for this game, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. Read it like a betting line: −7 means we have that team winning by 7. −9.4 · SC covered by 29.5
TotalOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. Our total was 61.3.59final 57 · under by 2
Our callThe side our number took at the early-week line, graded at that line. Line value is how far the market moved toward it by the last capture before kickoff.SC +14Wbeat the close by 3.5
SC +14Wbeat the close by 3.5Quarterbacksthis game
LaNorris Sellers23/35 · 279 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- +0.3372nd pct
- Comp %
- 65.7
- TD
- 4
- Turnovers
- 00 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 3
Aaron Philo21/28 · 227 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- +0.0341st pct
- Comp %
- 75.0
- TD
- 1
- Turnovers
- 11 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 3
Relieved in Q4 by Tramell Jones Jr.
The matchupthis game · ▲▼ better or worse than the unit's usual · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| South Carolinaoffense | Played like SC +6.2Fitted from non-garbage efficiency; describes how the game was played, not who deserved it. | defenseFlorida | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 53rd | 42.4%▼4.6 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 42.4%▲4.8 | 47th |
| 71st | +0.21▼0.02 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | +0.21▲0.02 | 29th |
| 69th | +0.25▲0.05 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | +0.25▼0.04 | 31st |
| 65th | +0.15▼0.09 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | +0.15▲0.13 | 35th |
| 79th | 0▲1.0 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 0▼1.3 | 21st |
| Floridaoffense | defenseSouth Carolina | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 56th | 43.3%▼3.3 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 43.3%▼1.2 | 44th |
| 47th | +0.03▼0.24 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | +0.03▲0.15 | 53rd |
| 48th | +0.03▼0.48 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | +0.03▲0.26 | 52nd |
| 49th | +0.03▼0.03 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | +0.03▲0.01 | 51st |
| 16th | 2▼1.5 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 2▲1.5 | 84th |
Team statsthis game · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| South CarolinaSC | FloridaFLA | |
|---|---|---|
| Special teams & field position | ||
| Average startWhere the team's drives started on average. | Own 3481st | Own 2737th |
| Kicking vs expectedKickingPoints from field goals and extra points against what an average kicker makes from the same spots. | −1.2 pts21st | −0.7 pts26th |
| Drives & pace | ||
| PlaysOffensive plays outside garbage time. | 6675th | 6059th |
| Drive pointsThe part of the final margin the offense moved the ball for (efficiency, success rate, big plays, finishing drives), in points. A margin over the opponent. | +6.367th | −6.333rd |
| Turnovers & hidden points | ||
| Penalty first downsPenalty 1st downsFirst downs the team was handed by the opponent's penalties. | 05th | 248th |
| 4th downsPoints from going for it on fourth down, against what the average team gets from the same spots. | 0.0 pts51st | −0.2 pts34th |
| Hidden pointsPoints from outside the offense's drives: turnovers, field position, kicking, fourth downs, penalty first downs, return touchdowns and safeties. A margin over the opponent. SC +8.8: turnovers +7.8, field position +2.5, kicking −0.3, 4th downs +0.3, penalty first downs −1.5. | +8.885th | −8.816th |
Season so far
South Carolina3–3 · 16th-hardest schedule
W
vs Kent State57–0covered −35.5
vs Kent State57–0covered −35.5Wvs Towson45–9missed −44.5
L
vs Mississippi State34–41missed −3
vs Mississippi State34–41missed −3L
at Alabama18–49missed +12.5
at Alabama18–49missed +12.5L
vs Kentucky34–35missed −2.5
vs Kentucky34–35missed −2.5Wat Florida38–19covered +10.5
at Florida38–19covered +10.5Florida4–2 · 8th-hardest schedule
W
vs Florida Atlantic66–21covered −25.5
vs Florida Atlantic66–21covered −25.5Wvs Campbell52–3missed −51
W
at Auburn44–39covered −2
at Auburn44–39covered −2W
vs Ole Miss52–28covered −4
vs Ole Miss52–28covered −4L
at Missouri17–45missed −5.5
at Missouri17–45missed −5.5Lvs South Carolina19–38missed −10.5
vs South Carolina19–38missed −10.5Model cfb_scratch · uncertainty ±15.5 · run Oct 10, 7:15 AM EDT · froze at kickoff and graded as-is