Week 6 report · Sat, Oct 10 · 2026 Week 6
AP #10LSU
4–2 · Ours #7 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
34–35FinalWe had LSU 28 – UK 21
Kentucky
5–1 · Ours #28 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
Win chanceOur odds before kickoff: how often each team won outright when we played the game out thousands of times from our line.LSU 66%UK won
LSU 66%UK wonSpreadOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. First seen at LSU −10.LSU −9.5oursOur computer's point spread for this game, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. Read it like a betting line: −7 means we have that team winning by 7. −6.5 · UK covered by 10.5
TotalOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. Our total was 49.4.51final 69 · over by 18
Our callThe side our number took at the early-week line, graded at that line. Line value is how far the market moved toward it by the last capture before kickoff.UK +10Wbeat the close by 0.5
UK +10Wbeat the close by 0.5Quarterbacksthis game
Sam Leavitt25/34 · 275 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- +0.2261st pct
- Comp %
- 73.5
- TD
- 2
- Turnovers
- 11 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 3
Kenny Minchey23/36 · 246 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- −0.0237th pct
- Comp %
- 63.9
- TD
- 0
- Turnovers
- 00 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 1
The matchupthis game · ▲▼ better or worse than the unit's usual · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| LSUoffense | Played like LSU +5.7Fitted from non-garbage efficiency; describes how the game was played, not who deserved it. | defenseKentucky | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 75th | 49.3%▲3.8 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 49.3%▼5.9 | 25th |
| 63rd | +0.15▲0.05 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | +0.15▼0.09 | 37th |
| 74th | +0.32▲0.24 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | +0.32▼0.39 | 26th |
| 37th | −0.04▼0.14 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | −0.04▲0.27 | 63rd |
| 16th | 2▼0.3 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 2▲0.5 | 84th |
| Kentuckyoffense | defenseLSU | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 57th | 43.8%▼3.1 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 43.8%▼21.1 | 43rd |
| 46th | +0.03▼0.03 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | +0.03▼0.50 | 54th |
| 42nd | −0.02▼0.04 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | −0.02▼0.55 | 58th |
| 57th | +0.09▼0.03 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | +0.09▼0.46 | 43rd |
| 79th | 0▲0.5 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 0▼1.8 | 21st |
Team statsthis game · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| LSULSU | KentuckyUK | |
|---|---|---|
| Special teams & field position | ||
| Average startWhere the team's drives started on average. | Own 2849th | Own 3892nd |
| Kicking vs expectedKickingPoints from field goals and extra points against what an average kicker makes from the same spots. | +0.4 pts57th | −4.1 pts2nd |
| Drives & pace | ||
| PlaysOffensive plays outside garbage time. | 6982nd | 6470th |
| Drive pointsThe part of the final margin the offense moved the ball for (efficiency, success rate, big plays, finishing drives), in points. A margin over the opponent. | +13.682nd | −13.618th |
| Turnovers & hidden points | ||
| Penalty first downsPenalty 1st downsFirst downs the team was handed by the opponent's penalties. | 122nd | 248th |
| 4th downsPoints from going for it on fourth down, against what the average team gets from the same spots. | +0.3 pts68th | −0.3 pts31st |
| Return touchdownsReturn TDsDefensive and special-teams touchdowns. | 042nd | 192nd |
| Hidden pointsPoints from outside the offense's drives: turnovers, field position, kicking, fourth downs, penalty first downs, return touchdowns and safeties. A margin over the opponent. UK +9.7: turnovers +5.2, field position +3.5, kicking −3.2, 4th downs −0.8, penalty first downs +0.8, return touchdowns +4.2. | −9.713th | +9.787th |
Season so far
LSU4–2 · 18th-hardest schedule
W
vs Clemson51–10covered −10
vs Clemson51–10covered −10W
vs Louisiana Tech45–14missed −35
vs Louisiana Tech45–14missed −35L
at Ole Miss24–32missed −3
at Ole Miss24–32missed −3W
vs Texas A&M35–6covered −8.5
vs Texas A&M35–6covered −8.5Wvs McNeese63–14missed −53.5
Lat Kentucky34–35missed −9.5
at Kentucky34–35missed −9.5Kentucky5–1 · 2nd-hardest schedule
Wvs Youngstown State45–13covered −22.5
L
vs Alabama17–45missed +9
vs Alabama17–45missed +9Wat Texas A&M31–21covered +16.5
at Texas A&M31–21covered +16.5W
vs South Alabama45–21covered −20.5
vs South Alabama45–21covered −20.5W
at South Carolina35–34covered +2.5
at South Carolina35–34covered +2.5Wvs LSU35–34covered +9.5
vs LSU35–34covered +9.5Model cfb_scratch · uncertainty ±15.5 · run Oct 10, 7:15 AM EDT · froze at kickoff and graded as-is