Week 6 report · Sat, Oct 10 · 2026 Week 6
AP #1Texas
4–1 · Ours #8 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
24–27FinalWe had TEX 26 – OU 19
Oklahoma
3–2 · Ours #22 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
Win chanceOur odds before kickoff: how often each team won outright when we played the game out thousands of times from our line.TEX 67%OU won
TEX 67%OU wonSpreadOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. First seen at TEX −9.5.TEX −7.5oursOur computer's point spread for this game, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. Read it like a betting line: −7 means we have that team winning by 7. −7 · OU covered by 10.5
TotalOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. Our total was 44.1.40.5final 51 · over by 10.5
Our callThe side our number took at the early-week line, graded at that line. Line value is how far the market moved toward it by the last capture before kickoff.OU +8Wbeat the close by 0.5
OU +8Wbeat the close by 0.5Quarterbacksthis game
Arch Manning19/31 · 260 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- −0.1427th pct
- Comp %
- 61.3
- TD
- 3
- Turnovers
- 22 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 2
John Mateer18/26 · 155 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- −0.2121st pct
- Comp %
- 69.2
- TD
- 0
- Turnovers
- 00 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 3
The matchupthis game · ▲▼ better or worse than the unit's usual · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| Texasoffense | Played like TEX +2.6Fitted from non-garbage efficiency; describes how the game was played, not who deserved it. | defenseOklahoma | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 32nd | 36.5%▼9.0 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 36.5%▼3.4 | 68th |
| 25th | −0.13▼0.15 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | −0.13▲0.05 | 75th |
| 31st | −0.14▼0.15 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | −0.14▼0.05 | 69th |
| 29th | −0.11▼0.14 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | −0.11▲0.12 | 71st |
| 16th | 2▼1.0 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 2▲1.8 | 84th |
| Oklahomaoffense | defenseTexas | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28th | 35.1%▼3.1 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 35.1%▼1.3 | 72nd |
| 16th | −0.21▼0.15 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | −0.21▲0.04 | 84th |
| 25th | −0.21▼0.32 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | −0.21▲0.15 | 75th |
| 20th | −0.20 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | −0.20▼0.08 | 80th |
| 79th | 0▲1.8 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 0▼1.0 | 21st |
Team statsthis game · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| TexasTEX | OklahomaOU | |
|---|---|---|
| Special teams & field position | ||
| Average startWhere the team's drives started on average. | Own 2848th | Own 2637th |
| Kicking vs expectedKickingPoints from field goals and extra points against what an average kicker makes from the same spots. | −1.3 pts19th | +1.2 pts79th |
| Drives & pace | ||
| PlaysOffensive plays outside garbage time. | 6367th | 5751st |
| Drive pointsThe part of the final margin the offense moved the ball for (efficiency, success rate, big plays, finishing drives), in points. A margin over the opponent. | +10.677th | −10.623rd |
| Turnovers & hidden points | ||
| Penalty first downsPenalty 1st downsFirst downs the team was handed by the opponent's penalties. | 248th | 370th |
| 4th downsPoints from going for it on fourth down, against what the average team gets from the same spots. | +0.3 pts68th | 0.0 pts51st |
| Return touchdownsReturn TDsDefensive and special-teams touchdowns. | 042nd | 299th |
| Hidden pointsPoints from outside the offense's drives: turnovers, field position, kicking, fourth downs, penalty first downs, return touchdowns and safeties. A margin over the opponent. OU +15.2: turnovers +5.2, field position −0.5, kicking +1.8, 4th downs −0.4, penalty first downs +0.8, return touchdowns +8.3. | −15.22nd | +15.298th |
Season so far
Texas4–1 · 7th-hardest schedule
W
vs Texas State59–7covered −29.5
vs Texas State59–7covered −29.5W
vs Ohio State24–23missed −2
vs Ohio State24–23missed −2W
vs UTSA30–6missed −30
vs UTSA30–6missed −30W
at Tennessee20–17missed −5.5
at Tennessee20–17missed −5.5Lat Oklahoma24–27missed −7.5
at Oklahoma24–27missed −7.5Oklahoma3–2 · 11th-hardest schedule
W
vs UTEP51–0covered −41
vs UTEP51–0covered −41L
at Michigan10–17missed −5
at Michigan10–17missed −5W
vs New Mexico14–6missed −21
vs New Mexico14–6missed −21L
at Georgia13–41missed +12
at Georgia13–41missed +12Wvs Texas27–24covered +7.5
vs Texas27–24covered +7.5Model cfb_scratch · uncertainty ±15.5 · run Oct 10, 7:15 AM EDT · froze at kickoff and graded as-is