Week 6 report · Sat, Oct 10 · 2026 Week 6
AP #9Ole Miss
4–1 · Ours #20 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
52–17FinalWe had MISS 33 – VAN 30
Vanderbilt
3–3 · Ours #47 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
Win chanceOur odds before kickoff: how often each team won outright when we played the game out thousands of times from our line.MISS 57%MISS won
MISS 57%MISS wonSpreadOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. First seen at MISS −10.5.MISS −9.5oursOur computer's point spread for this game, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. Read it like a betting line: −7 means we have that team winning by 7. −2.7 · MISS covered by 25.5
TotalOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. Our total was 63.5.55final 69 · over by 14
Our callThe side our number took at the early-week line, graded at that line. Line value is how far the market moved toward it by the last capture before kickoff.VAN +10Lbeat the close by 0.5
VAN +10Lbeat the close by 0.5Quarterbacksthis game
Trinidad Chambliss20/30 · 213 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- +0.3069th pct
- Comp %
- 66.7
- TD
- 3
- Turnovers
- 11 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 1
Jared Curtis19/32 · 222 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- +0.1453rd pct
- Comp %
- 59.4
- TD
- 1
- Turnovers
- 22 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 3
The matchupthis game · ▲▼ better or worse than the unit's usual · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| Ole Missoffense | Played like MISS +25.0Fitted from non-garbage efficiency; describes how the game was played, not who deserved it. | defenseVanderbilt | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 94th | 61.0%▲9.0 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 61.0%▼19.1 | 6th |
| 84th | +0.33▲0.09 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | +0.33▼0.29 | 16th |
| 82nd | +0.44▲0.17 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | +0.44▼0.36 | 18th |
| 73rd | +0.21▼0.01 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | +0.21▼0.20 | 27th |
| 41st | 1▲0.3 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 1▼0.3 | 59th |
| Vanderbiltoffense | defenseOle Miss | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21st | 32.3%▼7.5 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 32.3%▲14.8 | 79th |
| 28th | −0.11▼0.20 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | −0.11▲0.31 | 72nd |
| 38th | −0.05▼0.09 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | −0.05▲0.42 | 62nd |
| 20th | −0.20▼0.37 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | −0.20▲0.28 | 80th |
| 16th | 2▼1.0 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 2▲1.5 | 84th |
Team statsthis game · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| Ole MissMISS | VanderbiltVAN | |
|---|---|---|
| Special teams & field position | ||
| Average startWhere the team's drives started on average. | Own 3164th | Own 2527th |
| Kicking vs expectedKickingPoints from field goals and extra points against what an average kicker makes from the same spots. | +0.9 pts71st | +1.0 pts74th |
| Drives & pace | ||
| PlaysOffensive plays outside garbage time. | 4122nd | 319th |
| Drive pointsThe part of the final margin the offense moved the ball for (efficiency, success rate, big plays, finishing drives), in points. A margin over the opponent. | +12.581st | −12.519th |
| Turnovers & hidden points | ||
| Penalty first downsPenalty 1st downsFirst downs the team was handed by the opponent's penalties. | 486th | 370th |
| 4th downsPoints from going for it on fourth down, against what the average team gets from the same spots. | 0.0 pts51st | −1.1 pts4th |
| Hidden pointsPoints from outside the offense's drives: turnovers, field position, kicking, fourth downs, penalty first downs, return touchdowns and safeties. A margin over the opponent. MISS +4.1: field position +1.9, kicking −0.1, 4th downs +1.5, penalty first downs +0.8. | +4.169th | −4.131st |
Season so far
Ole Miss4–1 · 48th-hardest schedule
W
vs Louisville41–38missed −6.5
vs Louisville41–38missed −6.5W
vs Charlotte41–9missed −45
vs Charlotte41–9missed −45W
vs LSU32–24covered +3
vs LSU32–24covered +3L
at Florida28–52missed +4
at Florida28–52missed +4Wat Vanderbilt52–17covered −9.5
at Vanderbilt52–17covered −9.5Vanderbilt3–3 · 15th-hardest schedule
Wvs Austin Peay28–9missed −28.5
W
vs Delaware35–26missed −20.5QB change mid-game
vs Delaware35–26missed −20.5QB change mid-gameW
vs NC State35–31covered −3
vs NC State35–31covered −3L
at Auburn15–21covered +10
at Auburn15–21covered +10L
at Georgia14–38covered +26
at Georgia14–38covered +26Lvs Ole Miss17–52missed +9.5
vs Ole Miss17–52missed +9.5Model cfb_scratch · uncertainty ±15.5 · run Oct 10, 7:15 AM EDT · froze at kickoff and graded as-is