Auburn
3–2 · Ours #40Our rank on the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
18–34Our projected score
AP #6Alabama
5–1 · Ours #4Our rank on the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
Win chanceHow often each team wins the game outright when we play it out thousands of times from our line.ALA 85%
ALA 85%SpreadThe betting line right now: the middle of the sportsbooks we track, updated through the day.ALA −10oursOur computer's point spread for this game, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. Read it like a betting line: −7 means we have that team winning by 7. −16.9 · first seenThe first DraftKings or FanDuel number we captured for this game. −10
TotalThe betting line right now: the middle of the sportsbooks we track, updated through the day.52.5oursOur computer's projected combined score for both teams, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. 51.9 · first seen 53.5
Our call · LeanCollege: our number and the price say the side is worth more than the vig, but the record at these lines is a coin flip, so it is a lean, not a play.ALA −10.0-110 DraftKings53% to cover · +1.0% EV
ALA −10.0-110 DraftKings53% to cover · +1.0% EVQuarterbackslast game's starter · most dropbacks in each team's last game
Byrum BrownSenior · 5 starts this year
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback: passes, sacks (college play-by-play logs scrambles as runs). The rank is among the 134 FBS passers with 15+ dropbacks per team game.
- −0.06114th
- Comp %
- 65.2
- TD
- 7
- Turnovers
- 77 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 18
Keelon RussellSophomore · 6 starts this year
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback: passes, sacks (college play-by-play logs scrambles as runs). The rank is among the 134 FBS passers with 15+ dropbacks per team game.
- +0.3220th
- Comp %
- 67.5
- TD
- 13
- Turnovers
- 22 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 15
The matchupeach offense against the defense it faces · FBS rank in the colored cell
| Alabamaoffense | Offense edge · 5 of 5 | defenseAuburn | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7th | +0.29 | Overall efficiencyEfficiencyExpected points added per play. FBS average: +0.09. | −0.01 | 50th |
| 20th | 49.2% | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that keep the offense on schedule. FBS average: 43.6%. | 39.5% | 54th |
| 15th | +0.35 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback. FBS average: +0.10. | −0.09 | 34th |
| 9th | +0.24 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run. FBS average: +0.07. | +0.07 | 87th |
| 5th | 17.8% | Big playsBig playsShare of plays gaining 20+ yards passing or 10+ rushing. FBS average: 12.9%. | 8.2% | 9th |
| Auburnoffense | Defense edge · 4 of 5 | defenseAlabama | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 88th | +0.04 | Overall efficiencyEfficiencyExpected points added per play. FBS average: +0.09. | −0.01 | 42nd |
| 92nd | 41.6% | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that keep the offense on schedule. FBS average: 43.6%. | 36.7% | 27th |
| 101st | −0.01 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback. FBS average: +0.10. | −0.01 | 56th |
| 65th | +0.08 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run. FBS average: +0.07. | −0.02 | 52nd |
| 50th | 13.8% | Big playsBig playsShare of plays gaining 20+ yards passing or 10+ rushing. FBS average: 12.9%. | 14.1% | 116th |
Team stats
| AlabamaALA | AuburnAUB | |
|---|---|---|
| Special teams & field position | ||
| Special teamsSpecial teams expected points added per game. | +2.031st | +0.275th |
| Field positionAverage starting field position against the opponent's, in yards. | +8.48th | −1.998th |
| Drives & pace | ||
| Scoring chancesShare of drives that reach the opponent's 40. | 60%20th | 51%75th |
| Points per chancePoints scored per drive that reaches the opponent's 40. | 5.317th | 3.9678th |
| Time of possession | 31:1824th | 26:06114th |
| Plays per game | 6581st | 6936th |
| Turnovers & havoc | ||
| Turnover margin | +10 | −1 |
| Giveaways – takeaways | 6 – 16 | 11 – 10 |
| Havoc rateShare of defensive plays with a sack, tackle for loss, interception or forced fumble. | 12.5%12th | 10.5%44th |
Season so far
Auburn3–2 · 39th-hardest schedule
W
vs Baylor17–16missed −6.5
vs Baylor17–16missed −6.5W
vs Southern Miss43–8covered −32.5
vs Southern Miss43–8covered −32.5L
vs Florida39–44missed +2
vs Florida39–44missed +2W
vs Vanderbilt21–15missed −10
vs Vanderbilt21–15missed −10L
at Tennessee14–24missed +6.5
at Tennessee14–24missed +6.5Alabama5–1 · 5th-hardest schedule
W
vs East Carolina48–10covered −28
vs East Carolina48–10covered −28W
at Kentucky45–17covered −9
at Kentucky45–17covered −9W
vs Florida State50–36missed −19
vs Florida State50–36missed −19W
vs South Carolina49–18covered −12.5
vs South Carolina49–18covered −12.5W
at Mississippi State56–23covered −5.5
at Mississippi State56–23covered −5.5L
vs Georgia17–20missed −2.5
vs Georgia17–20missed −2.5Model cfb_scratch · uncertainty ±15.5 · run Oct 13, 7:26 AM EDT · freezes at kickoff and grades as-is