AP #14Tennessee
5–1 · Ours #14Our rank on the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
31–24Our projected score
Vanderbilt
3–3 · Ours #69Our rank on the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
Win chanceHow often each team wins the game outright when we play it out thousands of times from our line.TENN 68%
TENN 68%SpreadThe betting line right now: the middle of the sportsbooks we track, updated through the day.TENN −3oursOur computer's point spread for this game, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. Read it like a betting line: −7 means we have that team winning by 7. −7.2 · first seenThe first DraftKings or FanDuel number we captured for this game. −3
TotalThe betting line right now: the middle of the sportsbooks we track, updated through the day.57.5oursOur computer's projected combined score for both teams, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. 55.4 · first seen 57.5
Our call · PassNo bet: our line and the best DraftKings or FanDuel price don't beat the bookmaker's cut on this side.TENN −3.0-110 DraftKings52% to cover · -1.3% EV
TENN −3.0-110 DraftKings52% to cover · -1.3% EVQuarterbackslast game's starter · most dropbacks in each team's last game
George MacIntyreFreshman · 2 starts this year · 2 relief appearances
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback: passes, sacks (college play-by-play logs scrambles as runs). The rank is among the 134 FBS passers with 15+ dropbacks per team game.
- −0.09
- Comp %
- 65.3
- TD
- 2
- Turnovers
- 22 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 2
Jared CurtisFreshman · 4 starts this year · 1 relief appearance
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback: passes, sacks (college play-by-play logs scrambles as runs). The rank is among the 134 FBS passers with 15+ dropbacks per team game.
- +0.1457th
- Comp %
- 63.1
- TD
- 5
- Turnovers
- 55 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 8
New starter last game
The matchupeach offense against the defense it faces · FBS rank in the colored cell
| Vanderbiltoffense | Defense edge · 4 of 5 | defenseTennessee | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 71st | +0.09 | Overall efficiencyEfficiencyExpected points added per play. FBS average: +0.09. | −0.14 | 14th |
| 99th | 40.9% | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that keep the offense on schedule. FBS average: 43.6%. | 39.5% | 55th |
| 79th | +0.07 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback. FBS average: +0.10. | −0.35 | 1st |
| 50th | +0.12 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run. FBS average: +0.07. | +0.11 | 105th |
| 106th | 11.3% | Big playsBig playsShare of plays gaining 20+ yards passing or 10+ rushing. FBS average: 12.9%. | 10.2% | 38th |
| Tennesseeoffense | Offense edge · 3 of 5 | defenseVanderbilt | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 68th | +0.10 | Overall efficiencyEfficiencyExpected points added per play. FBS average: +0.09. | +0.05 | 76th |
| 68th | 43.2% | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that keep the offense on schedule. FBS average: 43.6%. | 42.9% | 90th |
| 128th | −0.16 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback. FBS average: +0.10. | +0.06 | 78th |
| 2nd | +0.28 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run. FBS average: +0.07. | +0.03 | 75th |
| 90th | 12.0% | Big playsBig playsShare of plays gaining 20+ yards passing or 10+ rushing. FBS average: 12.9%. | 12.1% | 82nd |
Team stats
| VanderbiltVAN | TennesseeTENN | |
|---|---|---|
| Special teams & field position | ||
| Special teamsSpecial teams expected points added per game. | −0.593rd | +1.544th |
| Field positionAverage starting field position against the opponent's, in yards. | +2.846th | +3.835th |
| Drives & pace | ||
| Scoring chancesShare of drives that reach the opponent's 40. | 48%86th | 49%82nd |
| Points per chancePoints scored per drive that reaches the opponent's 40. | 3.36110th | 4.3151st |
| Time of possession | 31:1825th | 29:3654th |
| Plays per game | 6492nd | 6847th |
| Turnovers & havoc | ||
| Turnover margin | 0 | +2 |
| Giveaways – takeaways | 11 – 11 | 8 – 10 |
| Havoc rateShare of defensive plays with a sack, tackle for loss, interception or forced fumble. | 8.1%95th | 12.4%14th |
Season so far
Tennessee5–1 · 50th-hardest schedule
Wvs Furman56–9missed −49
W
at Georgia Tech45–24covered −12
at Georgia Tech45–24covered −12W
vs Kennesaw State42–9missed −35.5
vs Kennesaw State42–9missed −35.5L
vs Texas17–20covered +5.5
vs Texas17–20covered +5.5W
vs Auburn24–14covered −6.5QB change mid-game
vs Auburn24–14covered −6.5QB change mid-gameW
at Arkansas24–17missed −13.5
at Arkansas24–17missed −13.5Vanderbilt3–3 · 15th-hardest schedule
Wvs Austin Peay28–9missed −28.5
W
vs Delaware35–26missed −20.5QB change mid-game
vs Delaware35–26missed −20.5QB change mid-gameW
vs NC State35–31covered −3
vs NC State35–31covered −3Lat Auburn15–21covered +10
at Auburn15–21covered +10L
at Georgia14–38covered +26
at Georgia14–38covered +26L
vs Ole Miss17–52missed +9.5
vs Ole Miss17–52missed +9.5Model cfb_scratch · uncertainty ±15.5 · run Oct 13, 7:26 AM EDT · freezes at kickoff and grades as-is