Board · Sat, Aug 29 · 12:00 PM ET · Week 0
at
Our call
No priceTCU −9.0 · covers 50.7% · neither book is on our number, so this bet has no priced EVPreseason modelNo 2026 games are in the book yet. This line starts from last season and the offseason evidence shown below.
Spread
Our lineTCU −12
MarketTCU −9as of Aug 28, 12:05 PM EDT
Pick
TCU −9no DK/FD price
TCU −9no DK/FD priceTCU wins by 9 or more in 51% of the games we simulate.
Total
Our total54.8
Market46.5as of Aug 28, 12:05 PM EDT
PickOver 46.5-110
The game clears 46.5 in 50% of the games we simulate.
Win probability
North Carolina 23%TCU 77%
Shape of the game
Margin
TCU by 9+51%Points
Over 46.550%
Line movement
 | | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | O/U | Spread | O/U | |
| Tue Aug 1111:29PM | −7.5 | — | −7.5 | — |
| Fri Aug 149:24PM | −7.5 | 47.5 | −7.5 | 47.5 |
| Thu Aug 277:05AM | −9.5 | 47.5 | −8.5 | 46.5 |
| Thu Aug 275:05PM | −9.5 | 46.5 | −8.5 | 46.5 |
| Thu Aug 276:05PM | −8.5 | 47.5 | −8.5 | 46.5 |
| Thu Aug 277:05PM | −9.5 | 46.5 | −8.5 | 46.5 |
| Fri Aug 287:05AM | −8.5 | 46.5 | −8.5 | 46.5 |
| Fri Aug 2812:05PM | −8.5 | 46.5 | −8.5 | 46.5 |
First pull, latest pull, and every pull where DraftKings or FanDuel moved — unchanged pulls are not repeated. Times ET; a snapshot cadence, not a live price.
TCU is the favourite, so the minus number is theirs. The line has come 1.5 points toward our −12.
The rosters
what the early-season model weighs
UNCTCU2025 season3–8 · −9.08–4 · +6.6
Roster talent76126th75927th
Portal net stars−39126th−769th
Recruiting class24819th21347th
Roster talent is weighted trailing recruiting classes until this year's talent composite publishes. Portal counts moves through Aug 15. Ranks are FBS-wide.
Prediction by cfb_best at code revision 7ebdce4, run Aug 28, 12:05 PM EDT on 9,503 training games. Once a game kicks off the numbers freeze and grade as-is.