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Oct 13, 12:07 PM EDTupdated
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Oct 13, 7:43 AM EDTstats the morning after a game; scores and grades the same night

North Carolina

3–2 FBS · ACC · this season
Rating
+4.6
Rank
48
Résumé
33
Projected wins
6.2▲ 2.5 vs preseason
CFP odds
1%

Schedule

our line · the market · graded at the early week line
DateOpponentOur lineOursMarketResultPerf.Our call
Sat, Aug 298/29at TCUTCUUNC +10.8UNC +7.5W 15–1056TCU · L
Sat, Sep 129/12East Tennessee StateEast Tennessee StateUNC −31.8UNC −35.5W 35–374
Sat, Sep 199/19at ClemsonCLEMUNC +5.8UNC +4.5L 20–2838CLEM · W
Sat, Oct 310/3Notre DameNDUNC +19.5UNC +21.0L 26–3740UNC · W
Sat, Oct 1010/10at PittsburghPITTUNC +8.4UNC +4.0W 21–1755PITT · L
Sat, Oct 1710/17at DukeDUKEUNC +3.5UNC +3.0DUKE −3.0Pass
Sat, Oct 2410/24SyracuseSYRUNC −10.4—wk 8
Sat, Oct 3110/31MiamiMIAUNC +18.4—wk 9
Sat, Nov 711/7at UConnCONNUNC PK—wk 10
Sat, Nov 1411/14LouisvilleLOUUNC +5.0—wk 11
Sat, Nov 2111/21at VirginiaUVAUNC +1.5—wk 12
Sat, Nov 2811/28NC StateNCSUUNC −5.3—wk 13

Model on UNC games: 2–2 ATS at the early week line · as the favorite 1–2 · as the dog 1–0 · home 2–2, away 0–0 · avg gap to the market +3.1 · closer than the market 2 of 4

Outlook

from 10,000 season simulations
Projected wins
6.23–2 banked, 7 to play · preseason 3.7
Bowl (6+)43%
9+ wins1%
11+ wins0%

The 7 games left add 3.2 expected wins.

Playoff picture
Reach title game2%
Win conference1%
Make the CFP1%
First-round bye0%
Win it all<1%

Full bracket on the playoffs page.

Offense and defense

5 games · rank of 138 FBS
rank of 138
Offense
EPA per play−0.00104th
Success rate43.3%66th
Pass EPA−0.01102nd
Rush EPA+0.0196th
Explosive rate11.5%100th
Quality-drive rate41.2%116th
Points per quality drive4.538th
Defense
EPA allowed−0.0337th
Success allowed43.9%99th
Pass EPA allowed−0.0544th
Rush EPA allowed−0.0155th
Explosive allowed6.6%2nd
Havoc rate7.8%102nd

Special teams, luck and schedule

through the latest board
rank of 138
Special teams & luck
Special teams EPA / game−0.283rd
Turnover margin−179th · exp. −0.5
Field position margin−2.4 yd100th
Hidden points / game−0.7gave up
Luck, wins+0.22.8 earned
One-score record2–1flipped 2–3
Rush rate over expected−5.9%115th
Overall
Rating, pts vs average+4.648th
Schedule played+9.46th
Schedule remaining+5.441st
Full schedule+6.918th
Pregame expected wins1.9of 5

Ranking by week

ours vs the AP poll
151025Wk 0Wk 2Wk 4Wk 6
Ours 48th · +4.6Week 6
Where they sit · offense vs defensepinch or ⌘/ctrl + scroll to zoom · drag to move · double-tap to reset
−0.200.00+0.20FBS averageStanfordHawai'iFlorida StateNew Mexico StateEastern MichiganSacramento StateNorth Dakota StateJacksonville StateVirginiaNC StateUSCSan José StateUNLVMemphisTCUUCFDelawareKennesaw StateBuffaloMinnesotaMissouriUtahRutgersMassachusettsWake ForestAkronGeorgia TechColoradoIllinoisUABFresno StatePurdueGeorgia StateOklahomaUTEPMichigan StateToledoMiamiKansasTexas A&MMissouri StateSouth AlabamaGeorgia SouthernSouth FloridaFlorida InternationalRiceUtah StateMiddle TennesseeArkansas StateVanderbiltTexas TechKansas StateVirginia TechMississippi StateUL MonroeLSUClemsonLouisiana TechMichiganWestern MichiganTroySam HoustonFloridaFlorida AtlanticColorado StateWyomingSouthern MissAir ForceTempleGeorgiaTennesseeApp StateCharlotteOregonBoise StateNavyUTSAPenn StateMarshallTexasTexas StateDukeTulaneTulsaOklahoma StateArkansasIowaNorthern IllinoisOld DominionIowa StateLouisianaBYUAuburnBaylorNorthwesternMarylandArizonaSan Diego StateNew MexicoCentral MichiganArizona StateNevadaWestern KentuckyCaliforniaUCLAKentuckyCincinnatiBoston CollegeArmySouth CarolinaKent StateOhio StateBall StateWest VirginiaCoastal CarolinaUConnBowling GreenAlabamaEast CarolinaHoustonOregon StateIndianaNorth TexasJames MadisonLibertyNebraskaOhioPittsburghMiami (OH)SyracuseWashingtonWashington StateNotre DameWisconsinOle MissLouisvilleSMUUNCgood offense, good defense →Offense EPA/play →better defense →
North Carolinaoff −0.00 104thdef −0.03 allowed · 37th

Every FBS team, through the latest board. EPA is garbage-time filtered. Tap a logo for its numbers.

Records and stats cover FBS-vs-FBS games only — the games the model grades. Rate stats exclude garbage time (a lead of 38+ in the first half, 28+ in the third quarter, 22+ in the fourth); turnovers are counted whole. Hover a row for its definition.