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Oct 13, 12:07 PM EDTupdated
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Oct 13, 7:43 AM EDTstats the morning after a game; scores and grades the same night

TCU

2–3 FBS · Big 12 · this season
Rating
+3.6
Rank
54
Résumé
97
Projected wins
4.7▼ 1.9 vs preseason
CFP odds
<1%

Schedule

our line · the market · graded at the early week line
DateOpponentOur lineOursMarketResultPerf.Our call
Sat, Aug 298/29North CarolinaUNCTCU −10.8TCU −7.5L 10–1544TCU · L
Sat, Sep 129/12GramblingGramblingTCU −39.0TCU −44.5W 63–776
Sat, Sep 199/19Arkansas StateARSTTCU −17.0TCU −20.5W 31–773ARST · L
Sat, Sep 269/26at UCFUCFTCU −2.8TCU −2.0L 13–2147TCU · L
Sat, Oct 310/3BYUBYUTCU +8.7TCU +6.5L 10–1741BYU · W
Sat, Oct 1710/17at BaylorBAYTCU +8.2TCU +6.0BAY −6.5Pass
Sat, Oct 2410/24West VirginiaWVUTCU −8.9—wk 8
Sat, Oct 3110/31KansasKUTCU +2.8—wk 9
Fri, Nov 611/6at ArizonaARIZTCU +10.3—wk 10
Sat, Nov 1411/14Kansas StateKSUTCU PK—wk 11
Sat, Nov 2111/21UtahUTAHTCU +15.7—wk 12
Thu, Nov 2611/26at Texas TechTTUTCU +9.5—wk 13

Model on TCU games: 1–3 ATS at the early week line · as the favorite 1–2 · as the dog 0–1 · home 0–1, away 1–2 · avg gap to the market +2.2 · closer than the market 1 of 4

Outlook

from 10,000 season simulations
Projected wins
4.72–3 banked, 7 to play · preseason 6.6
Bowl (6+)9%
9+ wins0%
11+ wins0%

The 7 games left add 2.7 expected wins.

Playoff picture
Reach title game<1%
Win conference<1%
Make the CFP<1%
First-round bye0%
Win it all0%

Full bracket on the playoffs page.

Offense and defense

5 games · rank of 138 FBS
rank of 138
Offense
EPA per play−0.04119th
Success rate42.6%76th
Pass EPA+0.1068th
Rush EPA−0.20137th
Explosive rate11.1%106th
Quality-drive rate55.8%45th
Points per quality drive3.2118th
Defense
EPA allowed−0.1021st
Success allowed36.9%29th
Pass EPA allowed−0.1621st
Rush EPA allowed−0.0540th
Explosive allowed8.6%11th
Havoc rate8.2%91st

Special teams, luck and schedule

through the latest board
rank of 138
Special teams & luck
Special teams EPA / game+1.642nd
Turnover margin−294th · exp. −2.0
Field position margin+2.3 yd51st
Hidden points / game−3.6gave up
Luck, wins−0.62.6 earned
One-score record0–3flipped 5–0
Rush rate over expected−4.6%102nd
Overall
Rating, pts vs average+3.654th
Schedule played+3.241st
Schedule remaining+8.625th
Full schedule+6.621st
Pregame expected wins1.6of 5

Ranking by week

ours vs the AP poll
151025Wk 0Wk 2Wk 4Wk 6
Ours 54th · +3.6Week 6
Where they sit · offense vs defensepinch or ⌘/ctrl + scroll to zoom · drag to move · double-tap to reset
−0.200.00+0.20FBS averageStanfordHawai'iFlorida StateNew Mexico StateEastern MichiganSacramento StateNorth Dakota StateJacksonville StateVirginiaNC StateUSCSan José StateUNLVMemphisNorth CarolinaUCFDelawareKennesaw StateBuffaloMinnesotaMissouriUtahRutgersMassachusettsWake ForestAkronGeorgia TechColoradoIllinoisUABFresno StatePurdueGeorgia StateOklahomaUTEPMichigan StateToledoMiamiKansasTexas A&MMissouri StateSouth AlabamaGeorgia SouthernSouth FloridaFlorida InternationalRiceUtah StateMiddle TennesseeArkansas StateVanderbiltTexas TechKansas StateVirginia TechMississippi StateUL MonroeLSUClemsonLouisiana TechMichiganWestern MichiganTroySam HoustonFloridaFlorida AtlanticColorado StateWyomingSouthern MissAir ForceTempleGeorgiaTennesseeApp StateCharlotteOregonBoise StateNavyUTSAPenn StateMarshallTexasTexas StateDukeTulaneTulsaOklahoma StateArkansasIowaNorthern IllinoisOld DominionIowa StateLouisianaBYUAuburnBaylorNorthwesternMarylandArizonaSan Diego StateNew MexicoCentral MichiganArizona StateNevadaWestern KentuckyCaliforniaUCLAKentuckyCincinnatiBoston CollegeArmySouth CarolinaKent StateOhio StateBall StateWest VirginiaCoastal CarolinaUConnBowling GreenAlabamaEast CarolinaHoustonOregon StateIndianaNorth TexasJames MadisonLibertyNebraskaOhioPittsburghMiami (OH)SyracuseWashingtonWashington StateNotre DameWisconsinOle MissLouisvilleSMUTCUgood offense, good defense →Offense EPA/play →better defense →
TCUoff −0.04 119thdef −0.10 allowed · 21st

Every FBS team, through the latest board. EPA is garbage-time filtered. Tap a logo for its numbers.

Records and stats cover FBS-vs-FBS games only — the games the model grades. Rate stats exclude garbage time (a lead of 38+ in the first half, 28+ in the third quarter, 22+ in the fourth); turnovers are counted whole. Hover a row for its definition.