Week 1 report · Sat, Sep 5 · 2026 Week 1in trend: High totals go under
Oklahoma State
4–1 · Ours #107 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
10–24FinalWe had OKST 25 – TLSA 29
Tulsa
3–3 · Ours #106 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
Win chanceOur odds before kickoff: how often each team won outright when we played the game out thousands of times from our line.TLSA 59%TLSA won
TLSA 59%TLSA wonSpreadOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. First seen at OKST −13.5.OKST −13oursOur computer's point spread for this game, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. Read it like a betting line: −7 means we have that team winning by 7. +3.6 · TLSA covered by 27
TotalOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. Our total was 54.2.57.5final 34 · under by 23.5
Our callThe side our number took at the early-week line, graded at that line. Line value is how far the market moved toward it by the last capture before kickoff.TLSA +14Wbeat the close by 1.0
TLSA +14Wbeat the close by 1.0Quarterbacksthis game
Drew Mestemaker29/49 · 241 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- −0.1426th pct
- Comp %
- 59.2
- TD
- 1
- Turnovers
- 22 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 2
Baylor Hayes17/24 · 227 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- +0.2462nd pct
- Comp %
- 70.8
- TD
- 1
- Turnovers
- 11 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 0
The matchupthis game · ▲▼ better or worse than the unit's usual · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| Oklahoma Stateoffense | Played like TLSA +14.9Fitted from non-garbage efficiency; describes how the game was played, not who deserved it. | defenseTulsa | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31st | 36.5%▼14.6 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 36.5%▲6.3 | 68th |
| 17th | −0.20▼0.43 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | −0.20▲0.35 | 83rd |
| 30th | −0.14▼0.50 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | −0.14▲0.51 | 70th |
| 13th | −0.28▼0.43 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | −0.28▲0.31 | 87th |
| 5th | 3▼2.0 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 3▲1.8 | 95th |
| Tulsaoffense | defenseOklahoma State | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 45th | 40.4%▲7.0 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 40.4%▼0.3 | 55th |
| 57th | +0.10▲0.06 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | +0.10▼0.06 | 43rd |
| 67th | +0.24▲0.32 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | +0.24▼0.33 | 33rd |
| 45th | 0.00▼0.17 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | 0.00▲0.05 | 55th |
| 41st | 1▼0.8 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 1▲0.3 | 59th |
Team statsthis game · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| Oklahoma StateOKST | TulsaTLSA | |
|---|---|---|
| Special teams & field position | ||
| Average startWhere the team's drives started on average. | Own 215th | Own 3688th |
| Kicking vs expectedKickingPoints from field goals and extra points against what an average kicker makes from the same spots. | +0.6 pts63rd | −4.1 pts2nd |
| Drives & pace | ||
| PlaysOffensive plays outside garbage time. | 8599th | 5750th |
| Drive pointsThe part of the final margin the offense moved the ball for (efficiency, success rate, big plays, finishing drives), in points. A margin over the opponent. | −9.726th | +9.774th |
| Turnovers & hidden points | ||
| Penalty first downsPenalty 1st downsFirst downs the team was handed by the opponent's penalties. | 594th | 248th |
| 4th downsPoints from going for it on fourth down, against what the average team gets from the same spots. | −1.2 pts3rd | +0.5 pts80th |
| Hidden pointsPoints from outside the offense's drives: turnovers, field position, kicking, fourth downs, penalty first downs, return touchdowns and safeties. A margin over the opponent. TLSA +9.8: turnovers +7.8, field position +5.3, kicking −3.3, 4th downs +2.3, penalty first downs −2.3. | −9.813th | +9.888th |
Season so far
Oklahoma State4–1 · 56th-hardest schedule
Lat Tulsa10–24missed −13
at Tulsa10–24missed −13W
vs Oregon39–31covered +24
vs Oregon39–31covered +24Wvs Murray State59–0covered −55.5
W
at West Virginia41–24covered +2
at West Virginia41–24covered +2W
vs UCF42–28covered −10
vs UCF42–28covered −10Tulsa3–3 · 97th-hardest schedule
Wvs Oklahoma State24–10covered +13
vs Oklahoma State24–10covered +13W
at Sam Houston23–17missed −12.5
at Sam Houston23–17missed −12.5Wvs East Texas A&M42–0covered −41
L
at Arkansas6–34missed +7
at Arkansas6–34missed +7L
vs North Texas44–45covered +2.5
vs North Texas44–45covered +2.5L
at Navy26–34missed +3
at Navy26–34missed +3Model cfb_best · uncertainty ±15.5 · run Sep 5, 3:05 PM EDT · froze at kickoff and graded as-is