LockSZNTeam
Oct 13, 12:07 PM EDTupdated
Board · Rankings · CollegeNext: at HOU · Sat, Oct 17 · 7:30 PM ET →

Oct 13, 7:43 AM EDTstats the morning after a game; scores and grades the same night

Oklahoma State

4–1 FBS · Big 12 · this season
Rating
+3.9
Rank
51
Résumé
30
Projected wins
7.3▲ 4.8 vs preseason
CFP odds
2%

Schedule

our line · the market · graded at the early week line
DateOpponentOur lineOursMarketResultPerf.Our call
Sat, Sep 59/5at TulsaTLSAOKST +3.6OKST −14.0L 10–2430TLSA · W
Sat, Sep 129/12OregonOREOKST +31.6OKST +22.5W 39–3152ORE · L
Sat, Sep 199/19Murray StateMurray StateOKST −34.1OKST −55.5W 59–093
Sat, Sep 269/26at West VirginiaWVUOKST +7.5OKST −1.0W 41–2470WVU · L
Sat, Oct 1010/10UCFUCFOKST −3.1OKST −9.5W 42–2859UCF · L
Sat, Oct 1710/17at HoustonHOUOKST +12.1OKST +4.5HOU −4.5No call
Sat, Oct 2410/24ColoradoCOLOOKST −12.2—wk 8
Sat, Oct 3110/31at Iowa StateISUOKST PK—wk 9
Sat, Nov 711/7at Kansas StateKSUOKST +3.9—wk 10
Sat, Nov 1411/14Texas TechTTUOKST +5.0OKST +15.5wk 11
Sat, Nov 2111/21at Arizona StateASUOKST −1.9—wk 12
Sat, Nov 2811/28KansasKUOKST +2.7—wk 13

Model on OKST games: 1–3 ATS at the early week line · as the favorite 0–1 · as the dog 1–2 · home 1–1, away 0–2 · avg gap to the market +9.1 · closer than the market 1 of 4

Outlook

from 10,000 season simulations
Projected wins
7.34–1 banked, 7 to play · preseason 2.5
Bowl (6+)70%
9+ wins6%
11+ wins0%

The 7 games left add 3.3 expected wins.

Playoff picture
Reach title game6%
Win conference2%
Make the CFP2%
First-round bye<1%
Win it all0%
  • A CFP bid: 8% with a win vs Houston, 1% with a loss.

Full bracket on the playoffs page.

Offense and defense

5 games · rank of 138 FBS
rank of 138
Offense
EPA per play+0.1450th
Success rate48.5%24th
Pass EPA+0.2038th
Rush EPA+0.0677th
Explosive rate15.3%24th
Quality-drive rate62.5%14th
Points per quality drive4.072nd
Defense
EPA allowed+0.0473rd
Success allowed40.0%61st
Pass EPA allowed+0.0166th
Rush EPA allowed+0.0784th
Explosive allowed9.0%18th
Havoc rate7.4%109th

Special teams, luck and schedule

through the latest board
rank of 138
Special teams & luck
Special teams EPA / game+2.033rd
Turnover margin069th · exp. −2.0
Field position margin−2.0 yd99th
Hidden points / game−2.0gave up
Luck, wins+0.23.8 earned
One-score record1–0flipped 3–2
Rush rate over expected−3.7%93rd
Overall
Rating, pts vs average+3.951st
Schedule played+1.556th
Schedule remaining+4.452nd
Full schedule+3.352nd
Pregame expected wins1.2of 5

Ranking by week

ours vs the AP poll
151025Wk 0Wk 2Wk 4Wk 6
Ours 51st · +3.9AP 18thWeek 6
Where they sit · offense vs defensepinch or ⌘/ctrl + scroll to zoom · drag to move · double-tap to reset
−0.200.00+0.20FBS averageStanfordHawai'iFlorida StateNew Mexico StateEastern MichiganSacramento StateNorth Dakota StateJacksonville StateVirginiaNC StateUSCSan José StateUNLVMemphisTCUNorth CarolinaUCFDelawareKennesaw StateBuffaloMinnesotaMissouriUtahRutgersMassachusettsWake ForestAkronGeorgia TechColoradoIllinoisUABFresno StatePurdueGeorgia StateOklahomaUTEPMichigan StateToledoMiamiKansasTexas A&MMissouri StateSouth AlabamaGeorgia SouthernSouth FloridaFlorida InternationalRiceUtah StateMiddle TennesseeArkansas StateVanderbiltTexas TechKansas StateVirginia TechMississippi StateUL MonroeLSUClemsonLouisiana TechMichiganWestern MichiganTroySam HoustonFloridaFlorida AtlanticColorado StateWyomingSouthern MissAir ForceTempleGeorgiaTennesseeApp StateCharlotteOregonBoise StateNavyUTSAPenn StateMarshallTexasTexas StateDukeTulaneTulsaArkansasIowaNorthern IllinoisOld DominionIowa StateLouisianaBYUAuburnBaylorNorthwesternMarylandArizonaSan Diego StateNew MexicoCentral MichiganArizona StateNevadaWestern KentuckyCaliforniaUCLAKentuckyCincinnatiBoston CollegeArmySouth CarolinaKent StateOhio StateBall StateWest VirginiaCoastal CarolinaUConnBowling GreenAlabamaEast CarolinaHoustonOregon StateIndianaNorth TexasJames MadisonLibertyNebraskaOhioPittsburghMiami (OH)SyracuseWashingtonWashington StateNotre DameWisconsinOle MissLouisvilleSMUOKSTgood offense, good defense →Offense EPA/play →better defense →
Oklahoma Stateoff +0.14 50thdef +0.04 allowed · 73rd

Every FBS team, through the latest board. EPA is garbage-time filtered. Tap a logo for its numbers.

Records and stats cover FBS-vs-FBS games only — the games the model grades. Rate stats exclude garbage time (a lead of 38+ in the first half, 28+ in the third quarter, 22+ in the fourth); turnovers are counted whole. Hover a row for its definition.