Week 1 report · Sat, Sep 5 · 2026 Week 1in trend: Weeks 0, 1 and 2 go under
Coastal Carolina
2–4 · Ours #118 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
24–31FinalWe had CCU 21 – WVU 31
West Virginia
3–3 · Ours #70 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
Win chanceOur odds before kickoff: how often each team won outright when we played the game out thousands of times from our line.WVU 72%WVU won
WVU 72%WVU wonSpreadOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. First seen at WVU −21.5.WVU −21oursOur computer's point spread for this game, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. Read it like a betting line: −7 means we have that team winning by 7. −9.8 · CCU covered by 14
TotalOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. Our total was 51.9.54.5final 55 · over by 0.5
Our callThe side our number took at the early-week line, graded at that line. Line value is how far the market moved toward it by the last capture before kickoff.CCU +21.5Wbeat the close by 0.5
CCU +21.5Wbeat the close by 0.5Quarterbacksthis game
Deuce Bailey21/37 · 373 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- +0.1856th pct
- Comp %
- 56.8
- TD
- 3
- Turnovers
- 00 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 4
Michael Hawkins Jr.11/14 · 132 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- +0.4076th pct
- Comp %
- 78.6
- TD
- 1
- Turnovers
- 00 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 1
The matchupthis game · ▲▼ better or worse than the unit's usual · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| Coastal Carolinaoffense | Played like WVU +1.5Fitted from non-garbage efficiency; describes how the game was played, not who deserved it. | defenseWest Virginia | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 46th | 40.6%▲5.0 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 40.6%▲8.0 | 55th |
| 57th | +0.10▲0.14 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | +0.10▲0.15 | 43rd |
| 58th | +0.14▲0.33 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | +0.14▲0.31 | 43rd |
| 48th | +0.02▼0.05 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | +0.02▲0.09 | 52nd |
| 16th | 2▼0.8 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 2▲1.3 | 84th |
| West Virginiaoffense | defenseCoastal Carolina | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 48th | 41.1%▼1.1 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 41.1%▲7.5 | 53rd |
| 58th | +0.11▼0.07 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | +0.11▲0.02 | 42nd |
| 80th | +0.40▲0.41 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | +0.40▼0.28 | 20th |
| 50th | +0.03▼0.25 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | +0.03▲0.11 | 51st |
| 79th | 0▲0.5 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 0▼1.0 | 21st |
Team statsthis game · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| Coastal CarolinaCCU | West VirginiaWVU | |
|---|---|---|
| Special teams & field position | ||
| Average startWhere the team's drives started on average. | Own 2525th | Own 3273rd |
| Kicking vs expectedKickingPoints from field goals and extra points against what an average kicker makes from the same spots. | +0.5 pts59th | +0.7 pts66th |
| Drives & pace | ||
| PlaysOffensive plays outside garbage time. | 6470th | 7389th |
| Drive pointsThe part of the final margin the offense moved the ball for (efficiency, success rate, big plays, finishing drives), in points. A margin over the opponent. | +6.368th | −6.332nd |
| Turnovers & hidden points | ||
| Penalty first downsPenalty 1st downsFirst downs the team was handed by the opponent's penalties. | 486th | 122nd |
| 4th downsPoints from going for it on fourth down, against what the average team gets from the same spots. | +0.1 pts61st | +0.3 pts68th |
| Hidden pointsPoints from outside the offense's drives: turnovers, field position, kicking, fourth downs, penalty first downs, return touchdowns and safeties. A margin over the opponent. WVU +3.3: turnovers +2.6, field position +2.6, kicking +0.2, 4th downs +0.3, penalty first downs −2.3. | −3.333rd | +3.367th |
Season so far
Coastal Carolina2–4 · 111th-hardest schedule
Lat West Virginia24–31covered +21
at West Virginia24–31covered +21Wvs Fordham45–7covered −36
L
at Delaware14–22missed +5
at Delaware14–22missed +5L
vs Liberty17–34missed +2.5
vs Liberty17–34missed +2.5L
vs Georgia Southern24–31missed +2
vs Georgia Southern24–31missed +2W
at Marshall27–21covered +4.5
at Marshall27–21covered +4.5West Virginia3–3 · 49th-hardest schedule
Wvs Coastal Carolina31–24missed −21
vs Coastal Carolina31–24missed −21Wvs UT Martin52–7covered −41.5
W
at Virginia38–27covered +10.5
at Virginia38–27covered +10.5L
vs Oklahoma State24–41missed −2
vs Oklahoma State24–41missed −2L
at Iowa State42–45push +3
at Iowa State42–45push +3L
vs Arizona31–52missed +3.5
vs Arizona31–52missed +3.5Model cfb_best · uncertainty ±15.5 · run Sep 5, 10:05 AM EDT · froze at kickoff and graded as-is