Oct 13, 7:43 AM EDTstats the morning after a game; scores and grades the same night

West Virginia

3–3 FBS · Big 12 · this season
Rating
−1.2
Rank
76
Résumé
83
Projected wins
4.4▲ 0.4 vs preseason
CFP odds
0%

Schedule

our line · the market · graded at the early week line
DateOpponentOur lineOursMarketResultPerf.Our call
Sat, Sep 59/5Coastal CarolinaCCUWVU −9.8WVU −21.5W 31–2451CCU · W
Sat, Sep 129/12UT MartinUT MartinWVU −35.6WVU −41.5W 52–772
Sat, Sep 199/19at VirginiaUVAWVU +15.7WVU +9.5W 38–2761UVA · L
Sat, Sep 269/26Oklahoma StateOKSTWVU −7.5WVU +1.0L 24–4131WVU · L
Sat, Oct 310/3at Iowa StateISUWVU +9.8WVU +3.5L 42–4552ISU · L
Sat, Oct 1010/10ArizonaARIZWVU +9.3WVU +3.0L 31–5242ARIZ · W
Sat, Oct 1710/17CincinnatiCINWVU +2.2WVU −1.5CIN +1.5Pass
Sat, Oct 2410/24at TCUTCUWVU +8.9—wk 8
Sat, Nov 711/7at Texas TechTTUWVU +15.7—wk 10
Sat, Nov 1411/14KansasKUWVU +9.5—wk 11
Fri, Nov 2711/27at UtahUTAHWVU +26.8—wk 13

Model on WVU games: 2–3 ATS at the early week line · as the favorite 1–2 · as the dog 1–1 · home 0–3, away 2–0 · avg gap to the market +6.9 · closer than the market 2 of 5

Outlook

from 10,000 season simulations
Projected wins
4.43–3 banked, 6 to play · preseason 4.0
Bowl (6+)3%
9+ wins0%
11+ wins0%

The 6 games left add 1.4 expected wins.

Playoff picture
Reach title game0%
Win conference0%
Make the CFP0%
First-round bye0%
Win it all0%

Full bracket on the playoffs page.

Offense and defense

6 games · rank of 138 FBS
rank of 138
Offense
EPA per play+0.1737th
Success rate42.9%72nd
Pass EPA+0.0678th
Rush EPA+0.2213th
Explosive rate13.2%60th
Quality-drive rate50.7%80th
Points per quality drive4.542nd
Defense
EPA allowed+0.21132nd
Success allowed46.5%125th
Pass EPA allowed+0.32134th
Rush EPA allowed+0.1098th
Explosive allowed16.0%132nd
Havoc rate11.2%34th

Special teams, luck and schedule

through the latest board
rank of 138
Special teams & luck
Special teams EPA / game+3.417th
Turnover margin+527th · exp. +3.5
Field position margin+3.1 yd43rd
Hidden points / game−0.1gave up
Luck, wins+0.03.0 earned
One-score record1–1flipped 3–3
Rush rate over expected+19.4%5th
Overall
Rating, pts vs average−1.276th
Schedule played+2.349th
Schedule remaining+8.624th
Full schedule+5.726th
Pregame expected wins2.9of 6

Ranking by week

ours vs the AP poll
151025Wk 0Wk 2Wk 4Wk 6
Ours 76th · −1.2Week 6
Where they sit · offense vs defensepinch or ⌘/ctrl + scroll to zoom · drag to move · double-tap to reset
−0.200.00+0.20FBS averageStanfordHawai'iFlorida StateNew Mexico StateEastern MichiganSacramento StateNorth Dakota StateJacksonville StateVirginiaNC StateUSCSan José StateUNLVMemphisTCUNorth CarolinaUCFDelawareKennesaw StateBuffaloMinnesotaMissouriUtahRutgersMassachusettsWake ForestAkronGeorgia TechColoradoIllinoisUABFresno StatePurdueGeorgia StateOklahomaUTEPMichigan StateToledoMiamiKansasTexas A&MMissouri StateSouth AlabamaGeorgia SouthernSouth FloridaFlorida InternationalRiceUtah StateMiddle TennesseeArkansas StateVanderbiltTexas TechKansas StateVirginia TechMississippi StateUL MonroeLSUClemsonLouisiana TechMichiganWestern MichiganTroySam HoustonFloridaFlorida AtlanticColorado StateWyomingSouthern MissAir ForceTempleGeorgiaTennesseeApp StateCharlotteOregonBoise StateNavyUTSAPenn StateMarshallTexasTexas StateDukeTulaneTulsaOklahoma StateArkansasIowaNorthern IllinoisOld DominionIowa StateLouisianaBYUAuburnBaylorNorthwesternMarylandArizonaSan Diego StateNew MexicoCentral MichiganArizona StateNevadaWestern KentuckyCaliforniaUCLAKentuckyCincinnatiBoston CollegeArmySouth CarolinaKent StateOhio StateBall StateCoastal CarolinaUConnBowling GreenAlabamaEast CarolinaHoustonOregon StateIndianaNorth TexasJames MadisonLibertyNebraskaOhioPittsburghMiami (OH)SyracuseWashingtonWashington StateNotre DameWisconsinOle MissLouisvilleSMUWVUgood offense, good defense →Offense EPA/play →better defense →
West Virginiaoff +0.17 37thdef +0.21 allowed · 132nd

Every FBS team, through the latest board. EPA is garbage-time filtered. Tap a logo for its numbers.

Records and stats cover FBS-vs-FBS games only — the games the model grades. Rate stats exclude garbage time (a lead of 38+ in the first half, 28+ in the third quarter, 22+ in the fourth); turnovers are counted whole. Hover a row for its definition.