Oct 13, 7:43 AM EDTstats the morning after a game; scores and grades the same night

West Virginia
3–3 FBS · Big 12 · this season
Rating
−1.2
Rank
76
Résumé
83
Projected wins
4.4▲ 0.4 vs preseason
CFP odds
0%
Schedule
our line · the market · graded at the early week lineDateOpponentOur lineOursMarketResultPerf.Our call
Model on WVU games: 2–3 ATS at the early week line · as the favorite 1–2 · as the dog 1–1 · home 0–3, away 2–0 · avg gap to the market +6.9 · closer than the market 2 of 5
Outlook
from 10,000 season simulationsProjected wins
4.43–3 banked, 6 to play · preseason 4.0
Bowl (6+)3%
9+ wins0%
11+ wins0%
The 6 games left add 1.4 expected wins.
Playoff picture
Reach title game0%
Win conference0%
Make the CFP0%
First-round bye0%
Win it all0%
Full bracket on the playoffs page.
Offense and defense
6 games · rank of 138 FBSrank of 138
Offense
EPA per play+0.1737th
Success rate42.9%72nd
Pass EPA+0.0678th
Rush EPA+0.2213th
Explosive rate13.2%60th
Quality-drive rate50.7%80th
Points per quality drive4.542nd
Defense
EPA allowed+0.21132nd
Success allowed46.5%125th
Pass EPA allowed+0.32134th
Rush EPA allowed+0.1098th
Explosive allowed16.0%132nd
Havoc rate11.2%34th
Special teams, luck and schedule
through the latest boardrank of 138
Special teams & luck
Special teams EPA / game+3.417th
Turnover margin+527th · exp. +3.5
Field position margin+3.1 yd43rd
Hidden points / game−0.1gave up
Luck, wins+0.03.0 earned
One-score record1–1flipped 3–3
Rush rate over expected+19.4%5th
Overall
Rating, pts vs average−1.276th
Schedule played+2.349th
Schedule remaining+8.624th
Full schedule+5.726th
Pregame expected wins2.9of 6
Ranking by week
ours vs the AP pollOurs 76th · −1.2Week 6
Where they sit · offense vs defensepinch or ⌘/ctrl + scroll to zoom · drag to move · double-tap to reset
West Virginiaoff +0.17 37thdef +0.21 allowed · 132nd
Every FBS team, through the latest board. EPA is garbage-time filtered. Tap a logo for its numbers.
West Virginiaoff +0.17 37thdef +0.21 allowed · 132nd
Records and stats cover FBS-vs-FBS games only — the games the model grades. Rate stats exclude garbage time (a lead of 38+ in the first half, 28+ in the third quarter, 22+ in the fourth); turnovers are counted whole. Hover a row for its definition.

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