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Oct 13, 12:07 PM EDTupdated
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Oct 13, 7:43 AM EDTstats the morning after a game; scores and grades the same night

Coastal Carolina

2–4 FBS · Sun Belt · this season
Rating
−9.8
Rank
110
Résumé
127
Projected wins
3.8▼ 0.8 vs preseason
CFP odds
0%

Schedule

our line · the market · graded at the early week line
DateOpponentOur lineOursMarketResultPerf.Our call
Sat, Sep 59/5at West VirginiaWVUCCU +9.8CCU +21.5L 24–3150CCU · W
Sat, Sep 129/12FordhamFordhamCCU −35.0CCU −36.0W 45–771
Sat, Sep 199/19at DelawareDELCCU +7.7CCU +5.0L 14–2250CCU · L
Thu, Sep 249/24LibertyLIBCCU +4.1CCU −1.0L 17–3424LIB · W
Sat, Oct 310/3Georgia SouthernGASOCCU +1.1CCU +2.5L 24–3148CCU · L
Sat, Oct 1010/10at MarshallMRSHCCU +6.8CCU +2.5W 27–2134MRSH · L
Fri, Oct 1610/16App StateAPPCCU +3.4CCU +1.5APP −1.5Pass
Sat, Oct 3110/31at Georgia StateGASTCCU +14.6—wk 9
Sat, Nov 711/7Old DominionODUCCU +0.6—wk 10
Sat, Nov 1411/14Arkansas StateARSTCCU +5.5—wk 11
Sat, Nov 2111/21at LouisianaULCCU +12.6—wk 12
Sat, Nov 2811/28at James MadisonJMUCCU +24.7—wk 13

Model on CCU games: 2–3 ATS at the early week line · as the favorite 0–1 · as the dog 2–2 · home 0–2, away 2–1 · avg gap to the market +3.8 · closer than the market 3 of 5

Outlook

from 10,000 season simulations
Projected wins
3.82–4 banked, 6 to play · preseason 4.6
Bowl (6+)1%
9+ wins0%
11+ wins0%

The 6 games left add 1.8 expected wins.

Playoff picture
Reach title game<1%
Win conference<1%
Make the CFP0%
First-round bye0%
Win it all0%

Full bracket on the playoffs page.

Offense and defense

6 games · rank of 138 FBS
rank of 138
Offense
EPA per play+0.0392nd
Success rate38.4%122nd
Pass EPA−0.03109th
Rush EPA+0.0963rd
Explosive rate13.4%53rd
Quality-drive rate47.8%88th
Points per quality drive3.2117th
Defense
EPA allowed+0.12104th
Success allowed46.4%121st
Pass EPA allowed+0.0677th
Rush EPA allowed+0.16117th
Explosive allowed13.8%109th
Havoc rate9.7%57th

Special teams, luck and schedule

through the latest board
rank of 138
Special teams & luck
Special teams EPA / game+1.249th
Turnover margin+527th · exp. +3.5
Field position margin−1.7 yd96th
Hidden points / game−0.7gave up
Luck, wins−0.32.4 earned
One-score record1–3flipped 4–2
Rush rate over expected−0.5%60th
Overall
Rating, pts vs average−9.8110th
Schedule played−4.6112th
Schedule remaining−3.179th
Full schedule−3.887th
Pregame expected wins1.5of 6

Ranking by week

ours vs the AP poll
151025Wk 0Wk 2Wk 4Wk 6
Ours 110th · −9.8Week 6
Where they sit · offense vs defensepinch or ⌘/ctrl + scroll to zoom · drag to move · double-tap to reset
−0.200.00+0.20FBS averageStanfordHawai'iFlorida StateNew Mexico StateEastern MichiganSacramento StateNorth Dakota StateJacksonville StateVirginiaNC StateUSCSan José StateUNLVMemphisTCUNorth CarolinaUCFDelawareKennesaw StateBuffaloMinnesotaMissouriUtahRutgersMassachusettsWake ForestAkronGeorgia TechColoradoIllinoisUABFresno StatePurdueGeorgia StateOklahomaUTEPMichigan StateToledoMiamiKansasTexas A&MMissouri StateSouth AlabamaGeorgia SouthernSouth FloridaFlorida InternationalRiceUtah StateMiddle TennesseeArkansas StateVanderbiltTexas TechKansas StateVirginia TechMississippi StateUL MonroeLSUClemsonLouisiana TechMichiganWestern MichiganTroySam HoustonFloridaFlorida AtlanticColorado StateWyomingSouthern MissAir ForceTempleGeorgiaTennesseeApp StateCharlotteOregonBoise StateNavyUTSAPenn StateMarshallTexasTexas StateDukeTulaneTulsaOklahoma StateArkansasIowaNorthern IllinoisOld DominionIowa StateLouisianaBYUAuburnBaylorNorthwesternMarylandArizonaSan Diego StateNew MexicoCentral MichiganArizona StateNevadaWestern KentuckyCaliforniaUCLAKentuckyCincinnatiBoston CollegeArmySouth CarolinaKent StateOhio StateBall StateWest VirginiaUConnBowling GreenAlabamaEast CarolinaHoustonOregon StateIndianaNorth TexasJames MadisonLibertyNebraskaOhioPittsburghMiami (OH)SyracuseWashingtonWashington StateNotre DameWisconsinOle MissLouisvilleSMUCCUgood offense, good defense →Offense EPA/play →better defense →
Coastal Carolinaoff +0.03 92nddef +0.12 allowed · 104th

Every FBS team, through the latest board. EPA is garbage-time filtered. Tap a logo for its numbers.

Records and stats cover FBS-vs-FBS games only — the games the model grades. Rate stats exclude garbage time (a lead of 38+ in the first half, 28+ in the third quarter, 22+ in the fourth); turnovers are counted whole. Hover a row for its definition.