Week 2 report · Sat, Sep 12 · 2026 Week 2in trend: Weeks 0, 1 and 2 go under
UCF
3–3 · Ours #62 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
7–12FinalWe had UCF 20 – PITT 33
Pittsburgh
5–1 · Ours #28 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
Win chanceOur odds before kickoff: how often each team won outright when we played the game out thousands of times from our line.PITT 79%PITT won
PITT 79%PITT wonSpreadOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. First seen at PITT −8.PITT −7oursOur computer's point spread for this game, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. Read it like a betting line: −7 means we have that team winning by 7. −13.1 · UCF covered by 2
TotalOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. Our total was 53.2.55.5final 19 · under by 36.5
Our callThe side our number took at the early-week line, graded at that line. Line value is how far the market moved toward it by the last capture before kickoff.PITT −7.5Llost 0.5 to the close
PITT −7.5Llost 0.5 to the closeQuarterbacksthis game
Alonza Barnett III20/31 · 186 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- −0.1129th pct
- Comp %
- 64.5
- TD
- 1
- Turnovers
- 00 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 1
Mason Heintschel18/29 · 212 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- +0.0947th pct
- Comp %
- 62.1
- TD
- 0
- Turnovers
- 00 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 1
The matchupthis game · ▲▼ better or worse than the unit's usual · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| UCFoffense | Played like PITT +4.9Fitted from non-garbage efficiency; describes how the game was played, not who deserved it. | defensePittsburgh | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15th | 30.0%▼9.7 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 30.0%▲5.9 | 85th |
| 17th | −0.20▼0.28 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | −0.20▲0.17 | 83rd |
| 27th | −0.18▼0.22 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | −0.18▲0.24 | 73rd |
| 15th | −0.24▼0.32 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | −0.24▲0.06 | 85th |
| 79th | 0▲1.0 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 0▼2.0 | 21st |
| Pittsburghoffense | defenseUCF | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 32nd | 36.6%▼5.1 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 36.6%▲7.6 | 68th |
| 22nd | −0.15▼0.25 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | −0.15▲0.25 | 78th |
| 51st | +0.09▲0.02 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | +0.09▲0.08 | 49th |
| 10th | −0.33▼0.40 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | −0.33▲0.31 | 91st |
| 79th | 0▲1.0 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 0▼2.0 | 21st |
Team statsthis game · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| UCFUCF | PittsburghPITT | |
|---|---|---|
| Special teams & field position | ||
| Average startWhere the team's drives started on average. | Own 2314th | Own 3480th |
| Kicking vs expectedKickingPoints from field goals and extra points against what an average kicker makes from the same spots. | 0.0 pts39th | +0.3 pts54th |
| Drives & pace | ||
| PlaysOffensive plays outside garbage time. | 5036th | 7185th |
| Drive pointsThe part of the final margin the offense moved the ball for (efficiency, success rate, big plays, finishing drives), in points. A margin over the opponent. | −3.840th | +3.861st |
| Turnovers & hidden points | ||
| Penalty first downsPenalty 1st downsFirst downs the team was handed by the opponent's penalties. | 122nd | 248th |
| 4th downsPoints from going for it on fourth down, against what the average team gets from the same spots. | −1.4 pts3rd | +0.1 pts61st |
| SafetiesSafeties scored. | 049th | 199th |
| Hidden pointsPoints from outside the offense's drives: turnovers, field position, kicking, fourth downs, penalty first downs, return touchdowns and safeties. A margin over the opponent. PITT +9.6: field position +3.7, kicking +0.2, 4th downs +1.9, penalty first downs +0.8, safeties +2.9. | −9.614th | +9.686th |
Season so far
UCF3–3 · 29th-hardest schedule
Wvs Bethune-Cookman73–6covered −43
Lat Pittsburgh7–12covered +7
at Pittsburgh7–12covered +7W
vs Georgia State44–30missed −17.5
vs Georgia State44–30missed −17.5W
vs TCU21–13covered +3.5
vs TCU21–13covered +3.5L
at Houston17–27covered +10.5
at Houston17–27covered +10.5L
at Oklahoma State28–42missed +10
at Oklahoma State28–42missed +10Pittsburgh5–1 · 61st-hardest schedule
W
vs Miami (OH)59–14covered −16.5
vs Miami (OH)59–14covered −16.5Wvs UCF12–7missed −7
vs UCF12–7missed −7W
vs Syracuse27–13covered −10.5
vs Syracuse27–13covered −10.5Wvs Bucknell59–0covered −54.5
W
at Virginia Tech35–33covered +2
at Virginia Tech35–33covered +2L
vs North Carolina17–21missed −3.5
vs North Carolina17–21missed −3.5Model cfb_best · uncertainty ±15.5 · run Sep 12, 3:05 PM EDT · froze at kickoff and graded as-is