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Oct 13, 12:07 PM EDTupdated
Board · Rankings · CollegeNext: vs BYU · Sat, Oct 24 · time TBD →

Oct 13, 7:43 AM EDTstats the morning after a game; scores and grades the same night

UCF

3–3 FBS · Big 12 · this season
Rating
+2.3
Rank
58
Résumé
61
Projected wins
5.5▲ 1.1 vs preseason
CFP odds
<1%

Schedule

our line · the market · graded at the early week line
DateOpponentOur lineOursMarketResultPerf.Our call
Thu, Sep 39/3Bethune-CookmanBethune-CookmanUCF −26.0UCF −43.0W 73–693
Sat, Sep 129/12at PittsburghPITTUCF +13.1UCF +7.5L 7–1247PITT · L
Sat, Sep 199/19Georgia StateGASTUCF −13.0UCF −20.5W 44–3069GAST · W
Sat, Sep 269/26TCUTCUUCF +2.8UCF +2.0W 21–1353TCU · L
Sat, Oct 310/3at HoustonHOUUCF +8.5UCF +12.0L 17–2734UCF · W
Sat, Oct 1010/10at Oklahoma StateOKSTUCF +3.1UCF +9.5L 28–4241UCF · L
Sat, Oct 2410/24BYUBYUUCF +12.0—wk 8
Fri, Oct 3010/30BaylorBAYUCF +7.7—wk 9
Sat, Nov 711/7at KansasKUUCF +11.0—wk 10
Sat, Nov 1411/14Arizona StateASUUCF −2.3—wk 11
Fri, Nov 2011/20Iowa StateISUUCF −0.6—wk 12
Sat, Nov 2811/28at ColoradoCOLOUCF −3.9—wk 13

Model on UCF games: 2–3 ATS at the early week line · as the favorite 0–2 · as the dog 2–1 · home 0–1, away 2–2 · avg gap to the market +4.0 · closer than the market 2 of 5

Outlook

from 10,000 season simulations
Projected wins
5.53–3 banked, 6 to play · preseason 4.4
Bowl (6+)20%
9+ wins0%
11+ wins0%

The 6 games left add 2.5 expected wins.

Playoff picture
Reach title game<1%
Win conference<1%
Make the CFP<1%
First-round bye0%
Win it all0%

Full bracket on the playoffs page.

Offense and defense

6 games · rank of 138 FBS
rank of 138
Offense
EPA per play+0.0781st
Success rate40.2%104th
Pass EPA+0.0583rd
Rush EPA+0.0962nd
Explosive rate12.4%77th
Quality-drive rate43.8%111th
Points per quality drive4.819th
Defense
EPA allowed−0.0052nd
Success allowed40.6%69th
Pass EPA allowed+0.0885th
Rush EPA allowed−0.0923rd
Explosive allowed10.2%37th
Havoc rate9.9%49th

Special teams, luck and schedule

through the latest board
rank of 138
Special teams & luck
Special teams EPA / game−1.0104th
Turnover margin+432nd · exp. +2.0
Field position margin−1.5 yd94th
Hidden points / game−1.1gave up
Luck, wins−0.03.0 earned
One-score record1–1flipped 3–3
Rush rate over expected−2.0%72nd
Overall
Rating, pts vs average+2.358th
Schedule played+4.629th
Schedule remaining+4.647th
Full schedule+4.643rd
Pregame expected wins2.2of 6

Ranking by week

ours vs the AP poll
151025Wk 0Wk 2Wk 4Wk 6
Ours 58th · +2.3Week 6
Where they sit · offense vs defensepinch or ⌘/ctrl + scroll to zoom · drag to move · double-tap to reset
−0.200.00+0.20FBS averageStanfordHawai'iFlorida StateNew Mexico StateEastern MichiganSacramento StateNorth Dakota StateJacksonville StateVirginiaNC StateUSCSan José StateUNLVMemphisTCUNorth CarolinaDelawareKennesaw StateBuffaloMinnesotaMissouriUtahRutgersMassachusettsWake ForestAkronGeorgia TechColoradoIllinoisUABFresno StatePurdueGeorgia StateOklahomaUTEPMichigan StateToledoMiamiKansasTexas A&MMissouri StateSouth AlabamaGeorgia SouthernSouth FloridaFlorida InternationalRiceUtah StateMiddle TennesseeArkansas StateVanderbiltTexas TechKansas StateVirginia TechMississippi StateUL MonroeLSUClemsonLouisiana TechMichiganWestern MichiganTroySam HoustonFloridaFlorida AtlanticColorado StateWyomingSouthern MissAir ForceTempleGeorgiaTennesseeApp StateCharlotteOregonBoise StateNavyUTSAPenn StateMarshallTexasTexas StateDukeTulaneTulsaOklahoma StateArkansasIowaNorthern IllinoisOld DominionIowa StateLouisianaBYUAuburnBaylorNorthwesternMarylandArizonaSan Diego StateNew MexicoCentral MichiganArizona StateNevadaWestern KentuckyCaliforniaUCLAKentuckyCincinnatiBoston CollegeArmySouth CarolinaKent StateOhio StateBall StateWest VirginiaCoastal CarolinaUConnBowling GreenAlabamaEast CarolinaHoustonOregon StateIndianaNorth TexasJames MadisonLibertyNebraskaOhioPittsburghMiami (OH)SyracuseWashingtonWashington StateNotre DameWisconsinOle MissLouisvilleSMUUCFgood offense, good defense →Offense EPA/play →better defense →
UCFoff +0.07 81stdef −0.00 allowed · 52nd

Every FBS team, through the latest board. EPA is garbage-time filtered. Tap a logo for its numbers.

Records and stats cover FBS-vs-FBS games only — the games the model grades. Rate stats exclude garbage time (a lead of 38+ in the first half, 28+ in the third quarter, 22+ in the fourth); turnovers are counted whole. Hover a row for its definition.