Oct 13, 7:43 AM EDTstats the morning after a game; scores and grades the same night

Pittsburgh
5–1 FBS · ACC · this season
Rating
+5.1
Rank
44
Résumé
28
Projected wins
8.3▲ 1.5 vs preseason
CFP odds
3%
Schedule
our line · the market · graded at the early week lineDateOpponentOur lineOursMarketResultPerf.Our call
Model on PITT games: 2–3 ATS at the early week line · as the favorite 1–2 · as the dog 1–1 · home 1–2, away 1–1 · avg gap to the market +3.8 · closer than the market 2 of 5
Outlook
from 10,000 season simulationsProjected wins
8.35–1 banked, 6 to play · preseason 6.8
Bowl (6+)94%
9+ wins15%
11+ wins0%
The 6 games left add 3.3 expected wins.
Playoff picture
Reach title game7%
Win conference2%
Make the CFP3%
First-round bye<1%
Win it all0%
- A CFP bid: 4% with a win vs Boston College, 1% with a loss.
Full bracket on the playoffs page.
Offense and defense
6 games · rank of 138 FBSrank of 138
Offense
EPA per play+0.0975th
Success rate42.5%77th
Pass EPA+0.1939th
Rush EPA−0.04109th
Explosive rate12.2%85th
Quality-drive rate54.8%54th
Points per quality drive3.980th
Defense
EPA allowed−0.0731st
Success allowed34.1%17th
Pass EPA allowed−0.0253rd
Rush EPA allowed−0.1511th
Explosive allowed9.7%30th
Havoc rate11.7%25th
Special teams, luck and schedule
through the latest boardrank of 138
Special teams & luck
Special teams EPA / game+1.836th
Turnover margin+619th · exp. +6.0
Field position margin+5.0 yd25th
Hidden points / game+4.3banked
Luck, wins+0.74.3 earned
One-score record2–1flipped 4–2
Rush rate over expected−7.2%122nd
Overall
Rating, pts vs average+5.144th
Schedule played+0.961st
Schedule remaining+4.154th
Full schedule+2.656th
Pregame expected wins3.2of 6
Ranking by week
ours vs the AP pollOurs 44th · +5.1AP NRWeek 6
Where they sit · offense vs defensepinch or ⌘/ctrl + scroll to zoom · drag to move · double-tap to reset
Pittsburghoff +0.09 75thdef −0.07 allowed · 31st
Every FBS team, through the latest board. EPA is garbage-time filtered. Tap a logo for its numbers.
Pittsburghoff +0.09 75thdef −0.07 allowed · 31st
Records and stats cover FBS-vs-FBS games only — the games the model grades. Rate stats exclude garbage time (a lead of 38+ in the first half, 28+ in the third quarter, 22+ in the fourth); turnovers are counted whole. Hover a row for its definition.



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