Oct 13, 7:43 AM EDTstats the morning after a game; scores and grades the same night

Pittsburgh

5–1 FBS · ACC · this season
Rating
+5.1
Rank
44
Résumé
28
Projected wins
8.3▲ 1.5 vs preseason
CFP odds
3%

Schedule

our line · the market · graded at the early week line
DateOpponentOur lineOursMarketResultPerf.Our call
Sat, Sep 59/5Miami (OH)M-OHPITT −15.8PITT −16.5W 59–1486M-OH · L
Sat, Sep 129/12UCFUCFPITT −13.1PITT −7.5W 12–753PITT · L
Thu, Sep 179/17SyracuseSYRPITT −15.8PITT −9.5W 27–1346PITT · W
Sat, Sep 269/26BucknellBucknellPITT −44.0PITT −54.5W 59–097
Fri, Oct 210/2at Virginia TechVTPITT PKPITT +3.5W 35–3353PITT · W
Sat, Oct 1010/10North CarolinaUNCPITT −8.4PITT −4.0L 17–2145PITT · L
Sat, Oct 1710/17at Boston CollegeBCPITT −11.8PITT −6.5PITT −6.5Lean · +3.3%
Sat, Oct 2410/24at MiamiMIAPITT +19.2—wk 8
Sat, Nov 2111/21at LouisvilleLOUPITT +5.8—wk 12
Sat, Nov 2811/28at CaliforniaCALPITT −11.7—wk 13

Model on PITT games: 2–3 ATS at the early week line · as the favorite 1–2 · as the dog 1–1 · home 1–2, away 1–1 · avg gap to the market +3.8 · closer than the market 2 of 5

Outlook

from 10,000 season simulations
Projected wins
8.35–1 banked, 6 to play · preseason 6.8
Bowl (6+)94%
9+ wins15%
11+ wins0%

The 6 games left add 3.3 expected wins.

Playoff picture
Reach title game7%
Win conference2%
Make the CFP3%
First-round bye<1%
Win it all0%

Full bracket on the playoffs page.

Offense and defense

6 games · rank of 138 FBS
rank of 138
Offense
EPA per play+0.0975th
Success rate42.5%77th
Pass EPA+0.1939th
Rush EPA−0.04109th
Explosive rate12.2%85th
Quality-drive rate54.8%54th
Points per quality drive3.980th
Defense
EPA allowed−0.0731st
Success allowed34.1%17th
Pass EPA allowed−0.0253rd
Rush EPA allowed−0.1511th
Explosive allowed9.7%30th
Havoc rate11.7%25th

Special teams, luck and schedule

through the latest board
rank of 138
Special teams & luck
Special teams EPA / game+1.836th
Turnover margin+619th · exp. +6.0
Field position margin+5.0 yd25th
Hidden points / game+4.3banked
Luck, wins+0.74.3 earned
One-score record2–1flipped 4–2
Rush rate over expected−7.2%122nd
Overall
Rating, pts vs average+5.144th
Schedule played+0.961st
Schedule remaining+4.154th
Full schedule+2.656th
Pregame expected wins3.2of 6

Ranking by week

ours vs the AP poll
151025Wk 0Wk 2Wk 4Wk 6
Ours 44th · +5.1AP NRWeek 6
Where they sit · offense vs defensepinch or ⌘/ctrl + scroll to zoom · drag to move · double-tap to reset
−0.200.00+0.20FBS averageStanfordHawai'iFlorida StateNew Mexico StateEastern MichiganSacramento StateNorth Dakota StateJacksonville StateVirginiaNC StateUSCSan José StateUNLVMemphisTCUNorth CarolinaUCFDelawareKennesaw StateBuffaloMinnesotaMissouriUtahRutgersMassachusettsWake ForestAkronGeorgia TechColoradoIllinoisUABFresno StatePurdueGeorgia StateOklahomaUTEPMichigan StateToledoMiamiKansasTexas A&MMissouri StateSouth AlabamaGeorgia SouthernSouth FloridaFlorida InternationalRiceUtah StateMiddle TennesseeArkansas StateVanderbiltTexas TechKansas StateVirginia TechMississippi StateUL MonroeLSUClemsonLouisiana TechMichiganWestern MichiganTroySam HoustonFloridaFlorida AtlanticColorado StateWyomingSouthern MissAir ForceTempleGeorgiaTennesseeApp StateCharlotteOregonBoise StateNavyUTSAPenn StateMarshallTexasTexas StateDukeTulaneTulsaOklahoma StateArkansasIowaNorthern IllinoisOld DominionIowa StateLouisianaBYUAuburnBaylorNorthwesternMarylandArizonaSan Diego StateNew MexicoCentral MichiganArizona StateNevadaWestern KentuckyCaliforniaUCLAKentuckyCincinnatiBoston CollegeArmySouth CarolinaKent StateOhio StateBall StateWest VirginiaCoastal CarolinaUConnBowling GreenAlabamaEast CarolinaHoustonOregon StateIndianaNorth TexasJames MadisonLibertyNebraskaOhioMiami (OH)SyracuseWashingtonWashington StateNotre DameWisconsinOle MissLouisvilleSMUPITTgood offense, good defense →Offense EPA/play →better defense →
Pittsburghoff +0.09 75thdef −0.07 allowed · 31st

Every FBS team, through the latest board. EPA is garbage-time filtered. Tap a logo for its numbers.

Records and stats cover FBS-vs-FBS games only — the games the model grades. Rate stats exclude garbage time (a lead of 38+ in the first half, 28+ in the third quarter, 22+ in the fourth); turnovers are counted whole. Hover a row for its definition.