Week 3 report · Sat, Sep 19 · 2026 Week 3
AP #11BYU
5–0 · Ours #26 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
41–23FinalWe had BYU 36 – CSU 19
Colorado State
2–3 · Ours #92 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
Win chanceOur odds before kickoff: how often each team won outright when we played the game out thousands of times from our line.BYU 84%BYU won
BYU 84%BYU wonSpreadOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. First seen at BYU −20.5.BYU −17.5oursOur computer's point spread for this game, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. Read it like a betting line: −7 means we have that team winning by 7. −16.4 · BYU covered by 0.5
TotalOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. Our total was 55.2.54.5final 64 · over by 9.5
Our callThe side our number took at the early-week line, graded at that line. Line value is how far the market moved toward it by the last capture before kickoff.CSU +20.5Wbeat the close by 3.0
CSU +20.5Wbeat the close by 3.0Quarterbacksthis game
Bear Bachmeier12/16 · 227 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- +0.7394th pct
- Comp %
- 75.0
- TD
- 0
- Turnovers
- 11 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 0
Ksaan Farrar13/23 · 70 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- −0.475th pct
- Comp %
- 56.5
- TD
- 0
- Turnovers
- 11 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 0
Replaced 5079443 in Q2
The matchupthis game · ▲▼ better or worse than the unit's usual · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| BYUoffense | Played like BYU +30.3Fitted from non-garbage efficiency; describes how the game was played, not who deserved it. | defenseColorado State | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 98th | 66.7%▲22.7 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 66.7%▼10.8 | 2nd |
| 97th | +0.56▲0.46 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | +0.56▼0.30 | 3rd |
| 99th | +1.02▲0.92 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | +1.02▼0.77 | 2nd |
| 87th | +0.33▲0.25 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | +0.33▼0.08 | 14th |
| 16th | 2▼2.0 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 2▲0.3 | 84th |
| Colorado Stateoffense | defenseBYU | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28th | 35.0%▼12.5 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 35.0%▲0.6 | 72nd |
| 45th | +0.01▼0.12 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | +0.01▼0.11 | 56th |
| 49th | +0.04▼0.17 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | +0.04▼0.18 | 52nd |
| 38th | −0.04▼0.10 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | −0.04 | 62nd |
| 41st | 1▼0.3 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 1▲0.3 | 59th |
Team statsthis game · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| BYUBYU | Colorado StateCSU | |
|---|---|---|
| Special teams & field position | ||
| Average startWhere the team's drives started on average. | Own 3166th | Own 2851st |
| Kicking vs expectedKickingPoints from field goals and extra points against what an average kicker makes from the same spots. | +1.3 pts81st | 0.0 pts39th |
| Drives & pace | ||
| PlaysOffensive plays outside garbage time. | 3919th | 4020th |
| Drive pointsThe part of the final margin the offense moved the ball for (efficiency, success rate, big plays, finishing drives), in points. A margin over the opponent. | +21.191st | −21.19th |
| Turnovers & hidden points | ||
| Penalty first downsPenalty 1st downsFirst downs the team was handed by the opponent's penalties. | 05th | 486th |
| 4th downsPoints from going for it on fourth down, against what the average team gets from the same spots. | 0.0 pts51st | −0.3 pts33rd |
| Hidden pointsPoints from outside the offense's drives: turnovers, field position, kicking, fourth downs, penalty first downs, return touchdowns and safeties. A margin over the opponent. CSU +3.5: turnovers +2.6, field position −0.8, kicking −0.9, 4th downs −0.4, penalty first downs +3.1. | −3.532nd | +3.568th |
Season so far
BYU5–0 · 54th-hardest schedule
Wvs Utah Tech63–7covered −50.5
W
vs Arizona28–17covered −7
vs Arizona28–17covered −7Wat Colorado State41–23covered −17.5
at Colorado State41–23covered −17.5W
at TCU17–10covered −6
at TCU17–10covered −6W
vs Iowa State24–10covered −12
vs Iowa State24–10covered −12Colorado State2–3 · 53rd-hardest schedule
W
vs Wyoming35–13covered −3
vs Wyoming35–13covered −3Wvs Southern Utah58–24covered −20
Lvs BYU23–41missed +17.5QB change mid-game
vs BYU23–41missed +17.5QB change mid-gameL
at UTSA45–59push +14
at UTSA45–59push +14L
vs Oregon State26–56missed +7
vs Oregon State26–56missed +7Model cfb_best · uncertainty ±15.5 · run Sep 19, 6:05 PM EDT · froze at kickoff and graded as-is