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Oct 13, 12:07 PM EDTupdated
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Oct 13, 7:43 AM EDTstats the morning after a game; scores and grades the same night

Colorado State

2–3 FBS · Pac-12 · this season
Rating
−11.2
Rank
118
Résumé
106
Projected wins
3.4▲ 0.6 vs preseason
CFP odds
0%

Schedule

our line · the market · graded at the early week line
DateOpponentOur lineOursMarketResultPerf.Our call
Sat, Sep 59/5WyomingWYOCSU −4.1CSU −3.5W 35–1368CSU · W
Sat, Sep 129/12Southern UtahSouthern UtahCSU −34.4CSU −20.0W 58–2468
Sat, Sep 199/19BYUBYUCSU +16.4CSU +20.5L 23–4124CSU · W
Sat, Sep 269/26at UTSAUTSACSU +14.6CSU +13.0L 45–5948UTSA · W
Sat, Oct 310/3Oregon StateORSTCSU +6.9CSU +6.5L 26–5617ORST · W
Thu, Oct 1510/15at Texas StateTXSTCSU +19.2CSU +14.0TXST −14.5Pass
Sat, Oct 2410/24San Diego StateSDSUCSU +4.1—wk 8
Sat, Oct 3110/31at Utah StateUSUCSU +6.8—wk 9
Sat, Nov 711/7Boise StateBOISCSU +19.2—wk 10
Sat, Nov 1411/14at Washington StateWSUCSU +10.3—wk 11
Sat, Nov 2111/21at Fresno StateFRESCSU +17.0—wk 12

Model on CSU games: 4–0 ATS at the early week line · as the favorite 3–0 · as the dog 1–0 · home 3–0, away 1–0 · avg gap to the market +0.7 · closer than the market 1 of 4

Outlook

from 10,000 season simulations
Projected wins
3.42–3 banked, 6 to play · preseason 2.8
Bowl (6+)1%
9+ wins0%
11+ wins0%

The 6 games left add 1.4 expected wins.

Playoff picture
Reach title game<1%
Win conference<1%
Make the CFP0%
First-round bye0%
Win it all0%

Full bracket on the playoffs page.

Offense and defense

5 games · rank of 138 FBS
rank of 138
Offense
EPA per play+0.2220th
Success rate45.8%48th
Pass EPA+0.2827th
Rush EPA+0.1537th
Explosive rate11.7%97th
Quality-drive rate47.2%92nd
Points per quality drive4.259th
Defense
EPA allowed+0.30137th
Success allowed53.6%138th
Pass EPA allowed+0.30131st
Rush EPA allowed+0.29137th
Explosive allowed16.7%136th
Havoc rate9.5%61st

Special teams, luck and schedule

through the latest board
rank of 138
Special teams & luck
Special teams EPA / game−0.697th
Turnover margin+711th · exp. +5.0
Field position margin+0.4 yd69th
Hidden points / game+2.7banked
Luck, wins−0.12.1 earned
One-score record0–0
Rush rate over expected−6.7%120th
Overall
Rating, pts vs average−11.2118th
Schedule played+1.853rd
Schedule remaining−1.873rd
Full schedule−0.474th
Pregame expected wins1.1of 5

Ranking by week

ours vs the AP poll
151025Wk 0Wk 2Wk 4Wk 6
Ours 118th · −11.2Week 6
Where they sit · offense vs defensepinch or ⌘/ctrl + scroll to zoom · drag to move · double-tap to reset
−0.200.00+0.20FBS averageStanfordHawai'iFlorida StateNew Mexico StateEastern MichiganSacramento StateNorth Dakota StateJacksonville StateVirginiaNC StateUSCSan José StateUNLVMemphisTCUNorth CarolinaUCFDelawareKennesaw StateBuffaloMinnesotaMissouriUtahRutgersMassachusettsWake ForestAkronGeorgia TechColoradoIllinoisUABFresno StatePurdueGeorgia StateOklahomaUTEPMichigan StateToledoMiamiKansasTexas A&MMissouri StateSouth AlabamaGeorgia SouthernSouth FloridaFlorida InternationalRiceUtah StateMiddle TennesseeArkansas StateVanderbiltTexas TechKansas StateVirginia TechMississippi StateUL MonroeLSUClemsonLouisiana TechMichiganWestern MichiganTroySam HoustonFloridaFlorida AtlanticWyomingSouthern MissAir ForceTempleGeorgiaTennesseeApp StateCharlotteOregonBoise StateNavyUTSAPenn StateMarshallTexasTexas StateDukeTulaneTulsaOklahoma StateArkansasIowaNorthern IllinoisOld DominionIowa StateLouisianaBYUAuburnBaylorNorthwesternMarylandArizonaSan Diego StateNew MexicoCentral MichiganArizona StateNevadaWestern KentuckyCaliforniaUCLAKentuckyCincinnatiBoston CollegeArmySouth CarolinaKent StateOhio StateBall StateWest VirginiaCoastal CarolinaUConnBowling GreenAlabamaEast CarolinaHoustonOregon StateIndianaNorth TexasJames MadisonLibertyNebraskaOhioPittsburghMiami (OH)SyracuseWashingtonWashington StateNotre DameWisconsinOle MissLouisvilleSMUCSUgood offense, good defense →Offense EPA/play →better defense →
Colorado Stateoff +0.22 20thdef +0.30 allowed · 137th

Every FBS team, through the latest board. EPA is garbage-time filtered. Tap a logo for its numbers.

Records and stats cover FBS-vs-FBS games only — the games the model grades. Rate stats exclude garbage time (a lead of 38+ in the first half, 28+ in the third quarter, 22+ in the fourth); turnovers are counted whole. Hover a row for its definition.