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Oct 13, 12:07 PM EDTupdated
Board · Rankings · CollegeNext: vs ND · Sat, Oct 17 · 7:30 PM ET →

Oct 13, 7:43 AM EDTstats the morning after a game; scores and grades the same night

BYU

5–0 FBS · Big 12 · this season
Rating
+12.9
Rank
12
Résumé
9
Projected wins
9.3▲ 2.3 vs preseason
CFP odds
48%

Schedule

our line · the market · graded at the early week line
DateOpponentOur lineOursMarketResultPerf.Our call
Sat, Sep 59/5Utah TechUtah TechBYU −33.5BYU −50.5W 63–795
Sat, Sep 129/12ArizonaARIZBYU −6.9BYU −7.5W 28–1762ARIZ · L
Sat, Sep 199/19at Colorado StateCSUBYU −16.4BYU −20.5W 41–2376CSU · W
Sat, Oct 310/3at TCUTCUBYU −8.7BYU −6.5W 17–1059BYU · W
Fri, Oct 910/9Iowa StateISUBYU −13.3BYU −11.0W 24–1069BYU · W
Sat, Oct 1710/17Notre DameNDBYU +7.0BYU +10.0BYU +10.0Pass
Sat, Oct 2410/24at UCFUCFBYU −12.0—wk 8
Sat, Oct 3110/31Arizona StateASUBYU −17.0—wk 9
Sat, Nov 711/7at UtahUTAHBYU +9.2BYU +3.0wk 10
Sat, Nov 1411/14BaylorBAYBYU −7.0—wk 11
Sat, Nov 2111/21at KansasKUBYU −3.6—wk 12
Sat, Nov 2811/28CincinnatiCINBYU −15.8—wk 13

Model on BYU games: 3–1 ATS at the early week line · as the favorite 2–0 · as the dog 1–1 · home 2–0, away 1–1 · avg gap to the market +1.3 · closer than the market 1 of 4

Outlook

from 10,000 season simulations
Projected wins
9.35–0 banked, 7 to play · preseason 7.0
Bowl (6+)98%
9+ wins46%
11+ wins3%

The 7 games left add 4.3 expected wins.

Playoff picture
Reach title game47%
Win conference21%
Make the CFP48%
First-round bye11%
Win it all2%
  • A CFP bid: 72% with a win vs Notre Dame, 36% with a loss.
  • Scoreboard watch: root for Colorado over Utah — swings a CFP bid between 47% and 53%.

Full bracket on the playoffs page.

Offense and defense

5 games · rank of 138 FBS
rank of 138
Offense
EPA per play+0.2221st
Success rate50.8%11th
Pass EPA+0.2826th
Rush EPA+0.1729th
Explosive rate13.8%47th
Quality-drive rate52.0%71st
Points per quality drive5.210th
Defense
EPA allowed−0.1316th
Success allowed34.0%16th
Pass EPA allowed−0.1913th
Rush EPA allowed−0.0539th
Explosive allowed9.8%32nd
Havoc rate11.9%22nd

Special teams, luck and schedule

through the latest board
rank of 138
Special teams & luck
Special teams EPA / game+1.154th
Turnover margin+711th · exp. +4.0
Field position margin+4.7 yd28th
Hidden points / game+1.3banked
Luck, wins+0.34.7 earned
One-score record1–0flipped 4–1
Rush rate over expected+3.6%35th
Overall
Rating, pts vs average+12.912th
Schedule played+1.754th
Schedule remaining+9.020th
Full schedule+6.424th
Pregame expected wins2.4of 5

Ranking by week

ours vs the AP poll
151025Wk 0Wk 2Wk 4Wk 6
Ours 12th · +12.9AP 8thWeek 6
Where they sit · offense vs defensepinch or ⌘/ctrl + scroll to zoom · drag to move · double-tap to reset
−0.200.00+0.20FBS averageStanfordHawai'iFlorida StateNew Mexico StateEastern MichiganSacramento StateNorth Dakota StateJacksonville StateVirginiaNC StateUSCSan José StateUNLVMemphisTCUNorth CarolinaUCFDelawareKennesaw StateBuffaloMinnesotaMissouriUtahRutgersMassachusettsWake ForestAkronGeorgia TechColoradoIllinoisUABFresno StatePurdueGeorgia StateOklahomaUTEPMichigan StateToledoMiamiKansasTexas A&MMissouri StateSouth AlabamaGeorgia SouthernSouth FloridaFlorida InternationalRiceUtah StateMiddle TennesseeArkansas StateVanderbiltTexas TechKansas StateVirginia TechMississippi StateUL MonroeLSUClemsonLouisiana TechMichiganWestern MichiganTroySam HoustonFloridaFlorida AtlanticColorado StateWyomingSouthern MissAir ForceTempleGeorgiaTennesseeApp StateCharlotteOregonBoise StateNavyUTSAPenn StateMarshallTexasTexas StateDukeTulaneTulsaOklahoma StateArkansasIowaNorthern IllinoisOld DominionIowa StateLouisianaAuburnBaylorNorthwesternMarylandArizonaSan Diego StateNew MexicoCentral MichiganArizona StateNevadaWestern KentuckyCaliforniaUCLAKentuckyCincinnatiBoston CollegeArmySouth CarolinaKent StateOhio StateBall StateWest VirginiaCoastal CarolinaUConnBowling GreenAlabamaEast CarolinaHoustonOregon StateIndianaNorth TexasJames MadisonLibertyNebraskaOhioPittsburghMiami (OH)SyracuseWashingtonWashington StateNotre DameWisconsinOle MissLouisvilleSMUBYUgood offense, good defense →Offense EPA/play →better defense →
BYUoff +0.22 21stdef −0.13 allowed · 16th

Every FBS team, through the latest board. EPA is garbage-time filtered. Tap a logo for its numbers.

Records and stats cover FBS-vs-FBS games only — the games the model grades. Rate stats exclude garbage time (a lead of 38+ in the first half, 28+ in the third quarter, 22+ in the fourth); turnovers are counted whole. Hover a row for its definition.