Week 3 report · Sat, Sep 19 · 2026 Week 3
Colorado
2–3 · Ours #62 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
7–41FinalWe had COLO 24 – NU 30
Northwestern
4–1 · Ours #73 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
Win chanceOur odds before kickoff: how often each team won outright when we played the game out thousands of times from our line.NU 65%NU won
NU 65%NU wonSpreadOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. First seen at NU −3.5.NU −3.5oursOur computer's point spread for this game, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. Read it like a betting line: −7 means we have that team winning by 7. −6.4 · NU covered by 30.5
TotalOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. Our total was 53.6.48final 48 · push
Our callThe side our number took at the early-week line, graded at that line. Line value is how far the market moved toward it by the last capture before kickoff.COLO +3.5Lmatched the close
COLO +3.5Lmatched the closeQuarterbacksthis game
Julian Lewis19/29 · 168 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- −0.1924th pct
- Comp %
- 65.5
- TD
- 1
- Turnovers
- 22 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 1
Aidan Chiles17/22 · 241 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- +0.4782nd pct
- Comp %
- 77.3
- TD
- 3
- Turnovers
- 00 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 1
The matchupthis game · ▲▼ better or worse than the unit's usual · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| Coloradooffense | Played like NU +13.7Fitted from non-garbage efficiency; describes how the game was played, not who deserved it. | defenseNorthwestern | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 63rd | 45.5%▲7.0 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 45.5%▼1.5 | 37th |
| 43rd | +0.01▲0.13 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | +0.01▲0.01 | 57th |
| 34th | −0.10▼0.03 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | −0.10▲0.12 | 66th |
| 56th | +0.09▲0.31 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | +0.09▼0.11 | 44th |
| 16th | 2▼0.7 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 2▲1.0 | 84th |
| Northwesternoffense | defenseColorado | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 73rd | 49.0%▼2.4 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 49.0%▼14.3 | 27th |
| 79th | +0.28▼0.01 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | +0.28▼0.43 | 22nd |
| 90th | +0.59▲0.41 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | +0.59▼0.59 | 11th |
| 60th | +0.11▼0.14 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | +0.11▼0.42 | 40th |
| 41st | 1▼0.7 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 1▲0.7 | 59th |
Team statsthis game · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| ColoradoCOLO | NorthwesternNU | |
|---|---|---|
| Special teams & field position | ||
| Average startWhere the team's drives started on average. | Own 2528th | Own 3379th |
| Kicking vs expectedKickingPoints from field goals and extra points against what an average kicker makes from the same spots. | 0.0 pts39th | +0.7 pts65th |
| Drives & pace | ||
| PlaysOffensive plays outside garbage time. | 4427th | 5138th |
| Drive pointsThe part of the final margin the offense moved the ball for (efficiency, success rate, big plays, finishing drives), in points. A margin over the opponent. | −17.213th | +17.287th |
| Turnovers & hidden points | ||
| Penalty first downsPenalty 1st downsFirst downs the team was handed by the opponent's penalties. | 371st | 248th |
| 4th downsPoints from going for it on fourth down, against what the average team gets from the same spots. | −1.6 pts2nd | +0.3 pts68th |
| Hidden pointsPoints from outside the offense's drives: turnovers, field position, kicking, fourth downs, penalty first downs, return touchdowns and safeties. A margin over the opponent. NU +12.9: turnovers +7.8, field position +2.9, kicking +0.5, 4th downs +2.5, penalty first downs −0.8. | −12.95th | +12.995th |
Season so far
Colorado2–3 · 12th-hardest schedule
W
at Georgia Tech14–13covered +6.5
at Georgia Tech14–13covered +6.5Wvs Weber State52–21missed −38.5
Lat Northwestern7–41missed +3.5
at Northwestern7–41missed +3.5L
at Baylor13–23missed +9.5QB change mid-game
at Baylor13–23missed +9.5QB change mid-gameL
vs Texas Tech7–29missed +13.5
vs Texas Tech7–29missed +13.5Northwestern4–1 · 60th-hardest schedule
Wvs South Dakota State34–18covered −14
Wvs Colorado41–7covered −3.5
vs Colorado41–7covered −3.5L
at Indiana23–29covered +20.5
at Indiana23–29covered +20.5W
vs Penn State34–13covered +2.5
vs Penn State34–13covered +2.5W
vs Ball State45–14missed −35
vs Ball State45–14missed −35Model cfb_best · uncertainty ±15.5 · run Sep 19, 6:05 PM EDT · froze at kickoff and graded as-is