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Oct 13, 12:07 PM EDTupdated
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Oct 13, 7:43 AM EDTstats the morning after a game; scores and grades the same night

Colorado

2–3 FBS · Big 12 · this season
Rating
−5.1
Rank
93
Résumé
71
Projected wins
3.7▼ 0.1 vs preseason
CFP odds
<1%

Schedule

our line · the market · graded at the early week line
DateOpponentOur lineOursMarketResultPerf.Our call
Thu, Sep 39/3at Georgia TechGTCOLO +12.7COLO +6.5W 14–1348GT · L
Sat, Sep 129/12Weber StateWeber StateCOLO −38.0COLO −38.5W 52–2186
Sat, Sep 199/19at NorthwesternNUCOLO +6.4COLO +3.5L 7–4133COLO · L
Sat, Sep 269/26at BaylorBAYCOLO +12.7COLO +6.5L 13–2357BAY · W
Sat, Oct 310/3Texas TechTTUCOLO +14.0COLO +13.0L 7–2950TTU · W
Sat, Oct 1710/17UtahUTAHCOLO +25.0COLO +15.5UTAH −15.5No call
Sat, Oct 2410/24at Oklahoma StateOKSTCOLO +12.2—wk 8
Sat, Oct 3110/31Kansas StateKSUCOLO +9.5—wk 9
Sat, Nov 711/7at Arizona StateASUCOLO +8.1—wk 10
Fri, Nov 1311/13HoustonHOUCOLO +17.7—wk 11
Sat, Nov 2111/21at CincinnatiCINCOLO +9.2—wk 12
Sat, Nov 2811/28UCFUCFCOLO +3.9—wk 13

Model on COLO games: 2–2 ATS at the early week line · as the favorite 2–1 · as the dog 0–1 · home 1–1, away 1–1 · avg gap to the market +3.2 · closer than the market 2 of 4

Outlook

from 10,000 season simulations
Projected wins
3.72–3 banked, 7 to play · preseason 3.8
Bowl (6+)2%
9+ wins0%
11+ wins0%

The 7 games left add 1.7 expected wins.

Playoff picture
Reach title game<1%
Win conference<1%
Make the CFP<1%
First-round bye0%
Win it all0%

Full bracket on the playoffs page.

Offense and defense

5 games · rank of 138 FBS
rank of 138
Offense
EPA per play−0.01111th
Success rate40.9%95th
Pass EPA+0.0585th
Rush EPA−0.07118th
Explosive rate14.1%41st
Quality-drive rate37.0%131st
Points per quality drive2.4135th
Defense
EPA allowed−0.0729th
Success allowed36.3%26th
Pass EPA allowed+0.0271st
Rush EPA allowed−0.187th
Explosive allowed12.8%93rd
Havoc rate13.8%6th

Special teams, luck and schedule

through the latest board
rank of 138
Special teams & luck
Special teams EPA / game−7.4138th
Turnover margin−5119th · exp. −5.0
Field position margin−8.9 yd136th
Hidden points / game−8.0gave up
Luck, wins+0.41.6 earned
One-score record1–0flipped 1–4
Rush rate over expected−4.1%100th
Overall
Rating, pts vs average−5.193rd
Schedule played+7.512th
Schedule remaining+5.737th
Full schedule+6.423rd
Pregame expected wins0.4of 5

Ranking by week

ours vs the AP poll
151025Wk 0Wk 2Wk 4Wk 6
Ours 93rd · −5.1Week 6
Where they sit · offense vs defensepinch or ⌘/ctrl + scroll to zoom · drag to move · double-tap to reset
−0.200.00+0.20FBS averageStanfordHawai'iFlorida StateNew Mexico StateEastern MichiganSacramento StateNorth Dakota StateJacksonville StateVirginiaNC StateUSCSan José StateUNLVMemphisTCUNorth CarolinaUCFDelawareKennesaw StateBuffaloMinnesotaMissouriUtahRutgersMassachusettsWake ForestAkronGeorgia TechIllinoisUABFresno StatePurdueGeorgia StateOklahomaUTEPMichigan StateToledoMiamiKansasTexas A&MMissouri StateSouth AlabamaGeorgia SouthernSouth FloridaFlorida InternationalRiceUtah StateMiddle TennesseeArkansas StateVanderbiltTexas TechKansas StateVirginia TechMississippi StateUL MonroeLSUClemsonLouisiana TechMichiganWestern MichiganTroySam HoustonFloridaFlorida AtlanticColorado StateWyomingSouthern MissAir ForceTempleGeorgiaTennesseeApp StateCharlotteOregonBoise StateNavyUTSAPenn StateMarshallTexasTexas StateDukeTulaneTulsaOklahoma StateArkansasIowaNorthern IllinoisOld DominionIowa StateLouisianaBYUAuburnBaylorNorthwesternMarylandArizonaSan Diego StateNew MexicoCentral MichiganArizona StateNevadaWestern KentuckyCaliforniaUCLAKentuckyCincinnatiBoston CollegeArmySouth CarolinaKent StateOhio StateBall StateWest VirginiaCoastal CarolinaUConnBowling GreenAlabamaEast CarolinaHoustonOregon StateIndianaNorth TexasJames MadisonLibertyNebraskaOhioPittsburghMiami (OH)SyracuseWashingtonWashington StateNotre DameWisconsinOle MissLouisvilleSMUCOLOgood offense, good defense →Offense EPA/play →better defense →
Coloradooff −0.01 111thdef −0.07 allowed · 29th

Every FBS team, through the latest board. EPA is garbage-time filtered. Tap a logo for its numbers.

Records and stats cover FBS-vs-FBS games only — the games the model grades. Rate stats exclude garbage time (a lead of 38+ in the first half, 28+ in the third quarter, 22+ in the fourth); turnovers are counted whole. Hover a row for its definition.