Week 3 report · Sat, Sep 19 · 2026 Week 3
Georgia State
4–1 · Ours #79 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
30–44FinalWe had GAST 20 – UCF 33
UCF
3–3 · Ours #51 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
Win chanceOur odds before kickoff: how often each team won outright when we played the game out thousands of times from our line.UCF 78%UCF won
UCF 78%UCF wonSpreadOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. First seen at UCF −20.5.UCF −17.5oursOur computer's point spread for this game, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. Read it like a betting line: −7 means we have that team winning by 7. −13 · GAST covered by 3.5
TotalOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. Our total was 53.8.50final 74 · over by 24
Our callThe side our number took at the early-week line, graded at that line. Line value is how far the market moved toward it by the last capture before kickoff.GAST +20.5Wbeat the close by 3.0
GAST +20.5Wbeat the close by 3.0Quarterbacksthis game
Cameran Brown30/47 · 282 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- +0.0443rd pct
- Comp %
- 63.8
- TD
- 2
- Turnovers
- 22 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 2
Keyone Jenkins7/17 · 86 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- −0.2320th pct
- Comp %
- 41.2
- TD
- 1
- Turnovers
- 11 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 0
The matchupthis game · ▲▼ better or worse than the unit's usual · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| Georgia Stateoffense | Played like UCF +14.0Fitted from non-garbage efficiency; describes how the game was played, not who deserved it. | defenseUCF | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 37th | 38.1%▼11.5 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 38.1%▲5.7 | 63rd |
| 35th | −0.06▼0.30 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | −0.06▲0.13 | 65th |
| 46th | +0.02▼0.64 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | +0.02▲0.16 | 54th |
| 22nd | −0.17▼0.17 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | −0.17▲0.12 | 78th |
| 5th | 3▼2.0 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 3▲1.8 | 95th |
| UCFoffense | defenseGeorgia State | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 52nd | 42.1%▲5.4 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 42.1%▼6.5 | 48th |
| 72nd | +0.22▲0.25 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | +0.22▼0.22 | 28th |
| 24th | −0.23▼0.28 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | −0.23▲0.15 | 76th |
| 92nd | +0.41▲0.50 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | +0.41▼0.29 | 8th |
| 41st | 1▼0.3 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 1▲0.3 | 59th |
Team statsthis game · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| Georgia StateGAST | UCFUCF | |
|---|---|---|
| Special teams & field position | ||
| Average startWhere the team's drives started on average. | Own 2744th | Own 4699th |
| Kicking vs expectedKickingPoints from field goals and extra points against what an average kicker makes from the same spots. | +2.1 pts95th | +1.3 pts80th |
| Drives & pace | ||
| PlaysOffensive plays outside garbage time. | 8498th | 5750th |
| Drive pointsThe part of the final margin the offense moved the ball for (efficiency, success rate, big plays, finishing drives), in points. A margin over the opponent. | −7.629th | +7.671st |
| Turnovers & hidden points | ||
| Penalty first downsPenalty 1st downsFirst downs the team was handed by the opponent's penalties. | 371st | 248th |
| 4th downsPoints from going for it on fourth down, against what the average team gets from the same spots. | −0.5 pts24th | +0.3 pts68th |
| Hidden pointsPoints from outside the offense's drives: turnovers, field position, kicking, fourth downs, penalty first downs, return touchdowns and safeties. A margin over the opponent. UCF +11.5: turnovers +5.2, field position +6.6, kicking −0.6, 4th downs +1.0, penalty first downs −0.8. | −11.58th | +11.592nd |
Season so far
Georgia State4–1 · 134th-hardest schedule
Wvs North Carolina A&T59–10covered −28.5
W
at Kennesaw State31–17covered +7.5
at Kennesaw State31–17covered +7.5Lat UCF30–44covered +17.5
at UCF30–44covered +17.5W
vs Northern Illinois35–14covered −10
vs Northern Illinois35–14covered −10W
vs Old Dominion42–10covered −2.5
vs Old Dominion42–10covered −2.5UCF3–3 · 29th-hardest schedule
Wvs Bethune-Cookman73–6covered −43
L
at Pittsburgh7–12covered +7
at Pittsburgh7–12covered +7Wvs Georgia State44–30missed −17.5
vs Georgia State44–30missed −17.5W
vs TCU21–13covered +3.5
vs TCU21–13covered +3.5L
at Houston17–27covered +10.5
at Houston17–27covered +10.5L
at Oklahoma State28–42missed +10
at Oklahoma State28–42missed +10Model cfb_best · uncertainty ±15.5 · run Sep 19, 6:05 PM EDT · froze at kickoff and graded as-is