Oct 13, 7:43 AM EDTstats the morning after a game; scores and grades the same night

Georgia State

4–1 FBS · Sun Belt · this season
Rating
−0.1
Rank
67
Résumé
54
Projected wins
8.3▲ 4.3 vs preseason
CFP odds
2%

Schedule

our line · the market · graded at the early week line
DateOpponentOur lineOursMarketResultPerf.Our call
Fri, Sep 49/4North Carolina A&TNorth Carolina A&TGAST −27.3GAST −28.5W 59–1084
Sat, Sep 129/12at Kennesaw StateKENNGAST +7.2GAST +9.5W 31–1759GAST · W
Sat, Sep 199/19at UCFUCFGAST +13.0GAST +20.5L 30–4431GAST · W
Sat, Sep 269/26Northern IllinoisNIUGAST −17.5GAST −9.0W 35–1438GAST · W
Sat, Oct 310/3Old DominionODUGAST −5.5GAST −2.5W 42–1093GAST · W
Sat, Oct 1710/17at James MadisonJMUGAST +10.7GAST +12.0GAST +12.5Pass
Sat, Nov 711/7at App StateAPPGAST −5.2—wk 10
Sat, Nov 2111/21at MarshallMRSHGAST −7.3—wk 12
Sat, Nov 2811/28LouisianaULGAST −4.9—wk 13

Model on GAST games: 4–0 ATS at the early week line · as the favorite 2–0 · as the dog 2–0 · home 2–0, away 2–0 · avg gap to the market +3.8 · closer than the market 4 of 4

Outlook

from 10,000 season simulations
Projected wins
8.34–1 banked, 7 to play · preseason 4.0
Bowl (6+)90%
9+ wins20%
11+ wins0%

The 7 games left add 4.3 expected wins.

Playoff picture
Reach title game30%
Win conference14%
Make the CFP2%
First-round bye0%
Win it all0%

Full bracket on the playoffs page.

Offense and defense

5 games · rank of 138 FBS
rank of 138
Offense
EPA per play+0.1932nd
Success rate47.1%38th
Pass EPA+0.3810th
Rush EPA+0.0294th
Explosive rate16.4%10th
Quality-drive rate55.8%45th
Points per quality drive4.824th
Defense
EPA allowed+0.0790th
Success allowed36.7%28th
Pass EPA allowed−0.0642nd
Rush EPA allowed+0.23131st
Explosive allowed15.1%123rd
Havoc rate12.0%21st

Special teams, luck and schedule

through the latest board
rank of 138
Special teams & luck
Special teams EPA / game+5.62nd
Turnover margin−4111th · exp. −3.0
Field position margin−2.4 yd101st
Hidden points / game−6.3gave up
Luck, wins+0.33.7 earned
One-score record0–0
Rush rate over expected+0.2%53rd
Overall
Rating, pts vs average−0.167th
Schedule played−8.9134th
Schedule remaining−5.089th
Full schedule−6.4120th
Pregame expected wins2.8of 5

Ranking by week

ours vs the AP poll
151025Wk 0Wk 2Wk 4Wk 6
Ours 67th · −0.1Week 6
Where they sit · offense vs defensepinch or ⌘/ctrl + scroll to zoom · drag to move · double-tap to reset
−0.200.00+0.20FBS averageStanfordHawai'iFlorida StateNew Mexico StateEastern MichiganSacramento StateNorth Dakota StateJacksonville StateVirginiaNC StateUSCSan José StateUNLVMemphisTCUNorth CarolinaUCFDelawareKennesaw StateBuffaloMinnesotaMissouriUtahRutgersMassachusettsWake ForestAkronGeorgia TechColoradoIllinoisUABFresno StatePurdueOklahomaUTEPMichigan StateToledoMiamiKansasTexas A&MMissouri StateSouth AlabamaGeorgia SouthernSouth FloridaFlorida InternationalRiceUtah StateMiddle TennesseeArkansas StateVanderbiltTexas TechKansas StateVirginia TechMississippi StateUL MonroeLSUClemsonLouisiana TechMichiganWestern MichiganTroySam HoustonFloridaFlorida AtlanticColorado StateWyomingSouthern MissAir ForceTempleGeorgiaTennesseeApp StateCharlotteOregonBoise StateNavyUTSAPenn StateMarshallTexasTexas StateDukeTulaneTulsaOklahoma StateArkansasIowaNorthern IllinoisOld DominionIowa StateLouisianaBYUAuburnBaylorNorthwesternMarylandArizonaSan Diego StateNew MexicoCentral MichiganArizona StateNevadaWestern KentuckyCaliforniaUCLAKentuckyCincinnatiBoston CollegeArmySouth CarolinaKent StateOhio StateBall StateWest VirginiaCoastal CarolinaUConnBowling GreenAlabamaEast CarolinaHoustonOregon StateIndianaNorth TexasJames MadisonLibertyNebraskaOhioPittsburghMiami (OH)SyracuseWashingtonWashington StateNotre DameWisconsinOle MissLouisvilleSMUGASTgood offense, good defense →Offense EPA/play →better defense →
Georgia Stateoff +0.19 32nddef +0.07 allowed · 90th

Every FBS team, through the latest board. EPA is garbage-time filtered. Tap a logo for its numbers.

Records and stats cover FBS-vs-FBS games only — the games the model grades. Rate stats exclude garbage time (a lead of 38+ in the first half, 28+ in the third quarter, 22+ in the fourth); turnovers are counted whole. Hover a row for its definition.