Week 3 report · Sat, Sep 19 · 2026 Week 3
Utah State
2–4 · Ours #103 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
0–33FinalWe had USU 12 – UTAH 45
AP #17Utah
5–0 · Ours #7 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
Win chanceOur odds before kickoff: how often each team won outright when we played the game out thousands of times from our line.UTAH 98%UTAH won
UTAH 98%UTAH wonSpreadOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. First seen at UTAH −27.5.UTAH −26.5oursOur computer's point spread for this game, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. Read it like a betting line: −7 means we have that team winning by 7. −33.5 · UTAH covered by 6.5
TotalOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. Our total was 57.2.55.5final 33 · under by 22.5
Our callThe side our number took at the early-week line, graded at that line. Line value is how far the market moved toward it by the last capture before kickoff.UTAH −27.5Wlost 1.0 to the close
UTAH −27.5Wlost 1.0 to the closeQuarterbacksthis game
Grady Brosterhous15/29 · 130 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- −0.408th pct
- Comp %
- 51.7
- TD
- 0
- Turnovers
- 11 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 3
Devon Dampier22/32 · 253 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- +0.3875th pct
- Comp %
- 68.8
- TD
- 2
- Turnovers
- 00 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 1
The matchupthis game · ▲▼ better or worse than the unit's usual · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| Utah Stateoffense | Played like UTAH +32.2Fitted from non-garbage efficiency; describes how the game was played, not who deserved it. | defenseUtah | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6th | 23.5%▼9.5 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 23.5%▲11.1 | 94th |
| 5th | −0.41▼0.30 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | −0.41▲0.29 | 95th |
| 4th | −0.68▼0.55 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | −0.68▲0.69 | 96th |
| 57th | +0.09▲0.16 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | +0.09▼0.43 | 43rd |
| 41st | 1▲0.5 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 1 | 59th |
| Utahoffense | defenseUtah State | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 56th | 43.4%▼11.4 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 43.4%▼4.2 | 44th |
| 71st | +0.21▲0.04 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | +0.21▼0.30 | 29th |
| 79th | +0.38▲0.24 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | +0.38▼0.51 | 21st |
| 33rd | −0.09▼0.27 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | −0.09▲0.07 | 67th |
| 79th | 0▲1.0 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 0▼1.3 | 21st |
Team statsthis game · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| Utah StateUSU | UtahUTAH | |
|---|---|---|
| Special teams & field position | ||
| Average startWhere the team's drives started on average. | Own 3481st | Own 3060th |
| Kicking vs expectedKickingPoints from field goals and extra points against what an average kicker makes from the same spots. | 0.0 pts39th | +2.1 pts96th |
| Drives & pace | ||
| PlaysOffensive plays outside garbage time. | 3413th | 5342nd |
| Drive pointsThe part of the final margin the offense moved the ball for (efficiency, success rate, big plays, finishing drives), in points. A margin over the opponent. | −27.24th | +27.296th |
| Turnovers & hidden points | ||
| Penalty first downsPenalty 1st downsFirst downs the team was handed by the opponent's penalties. | 248th | 122nd |
| 4th downsPoints from going for it on fourth down, against what the average team gets from the same spots. | −0.7 pts14th | −1.0 pts8th |
| Hidden pointsPoints from outside the offense's drives: turnovers, field position, kicking, fourth downs, penalty first downs, return touchdowns and safeties. A margin over the opponent. USU +1.1: field position +1.5, kicking −1.5, 4th downs +0.3, penalty first downs +0.8. | +1.155th | −1.145th |
Season so far
Utah State2–4 · 36th-hardest schedule
Lvs Idaho State17–29missed −15.5
L
at Washington14–16covered +28
at Washington14–16covered +28Lat Utah0–33missed +26.5
at Utah0–33missed +26.5W
vs Troy21–10covered −3
vs Troy21–10covered −3L
at Boise State18–37covered +19.5
at Boise State18–37covered +19.5W
vs Washington State17–16missed −4
vs Washington State17–16missed −4Utah5–0 · 65th-hardest schedule
Wvs Idaho66–14covered −37.5
W
vs Arkansas43–10covered −13.5QB change mid-game
vs Arkansas43–10covered −13.5QB change mid-gameWvs Utah State33–0covered −26.5
vs Utah State33–0covered −26.5W
at Iowa State31–17covered −7.5
at Iowa State31–17covered −7.5W
vs Kansas41–24covered −16
vs Kansas41–24covered −16Model cfb_best · uncertainty ±15.5 · run Sep 19, 3:05 PM EDT · froze at kickoff and graded as-is