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Oct 13, 12:07 PM EDTupdated
Board · Rankings · CollegeNext: at TXST · Sat, Oct 24 · 7:30 PM ET →

Oct 13, 7:43 AM EDTstats the morning after a game; scores and grades the same night

Utah State

2–4 FBS · Pac-12 · this season
Rating
−6.3
Rank
98
Résumé
109
Projected wins
3.7▲ 0.2 vs preseason
CFP odds
0%

Schedule

our line · the market · graded at the early week line
DateOpponentOur lineOursMarketResultPerf.Our call
Sat, Sep 59/5Idaho StateIdaho StateUSU −29.1USU −15.5L 17–2949
Sat, Sep 129/12at WashingtonWASHUSU +32.6USU +26.5L 14–1648WASH · L
Sat, Sep 199/19at UtahUTAHUSU +33.5USU +27.5L 0–3317UTAH · W
Sat, Sep 269/26TroyTROYUSU PKUSU −2.5W 21–1063TROY · L
Sat, Oct 310/3at Boise StateBOISUSU +19.0USU +20.5L 18–3739USU · W
Fri, Oct 910/9Washington StateWSUUSU +0.8USU −4.0W 17–1650WSU · W
Sat, Oct 2410/24at Texas StateTXSTUSU +14.2—wk 8
Sat, Oct 3110/31Colorado StateCSUUSU −6.8—wk 9
Sat, Nov 711/7Fresno StateFRESUSU +8.0—wk 10
Sat, Nov 1411/14at San Diego StateSDSUUSU +4.5—wk 11
Sat, Nov 2111/21at Oregon StateORSTUSU +18.1—wk 12

Model on USU games: 3–2 ATS at the early week line · as the favorite 1–1 · as the dog 2–1 · home 1–1, away 2–1 · avg gap to the market +4.0 · closer than the market 3 of 5

Outlook

from 10,000 season simulations
Projected wins
3.72–4 banked, 5 to play · preseason 3.5
Bowl (6+)4%
9+ wins0%
11+ wins0%

The 5 games left add 1.7 expected wins.

Playoff picture
Reach title game2%
Win conference1%
Make the CFP0%
First-round bye0%
Win it all0%

Full bracket on the playoffs page.

Offense and defense

6 games · rank of 138 FBS
rank of 138
Offense
EPA per play−0.13135th
Success rate34.3%133rd
Pass EPA−0.18129th
Rush EPA−0.07119th
Explosive rate12.1%88th
Quality-drive rate45.7%100th
Points per quality drive2.3137th
Defense
EPA allowed−0.0632nd
Success allowed39.3%53rd
Pass EPA allowed−0.0837th
Rush EPA allowed−0.0345th
Explosive allowed8.0%7th
Havoc rate6.8%121st

Special teams, luck and schedule

through the latest board
rank of 138
Special teams & luck
Special teams EPA / game−3.9131st
Turnover margin−4111th · exp. −5.0
Field position margin+4.2 yd31st
Hidden points / game+0.6banked
Luck, wins+0.02.0 earned
One-score record1–1flipped 2–4
Rush rate over expected−1.6%66th
Overall
Rating, pts vs average−6.398th
Schedule played+3.736th
Schedule remaining−2.375th
Full schedule+0.768th
Pregame expected wins2.0of 6

Ranking by week

ours vs the AP poll
151025Wk 0Wk 2Wk 4Wk 6
Ours 98th · −6.3Week 6
Where they sit · offense vs defensepinch or ⌘/ctrl + scroll to zoom · drag to move · double-tap to reset
−0.200.00+0.20FBS averageStanfordHawai'iFlorida StateNew Mexico StateEastern MichiganSacramento StateNorth Dakota StateJacksonville StateVirginiaNC StateUSCSan José StateUNLVMemphisTCUNorth CarolinaUCFDelawareKennesaw StateBuffaloMinnesotaMissouriUtahRutgersMassachusettsWake ForestAkronGeorgia TechColoradoIllinoisUABFresno StatePurdueGeorgia StateOklahomaUTEPMichigan StateToledoMiamiKansasTexas A&MMissouri StateSouth AlabamaGeorgia SouthernSouth FloridaFlorida InternationalRiceMiddle TennesseeArkansas StateVanderbiltTexas TechKansas StateVirginia TechMississippi StateUL MonroeLSUClemsonLouisiana TechMichiganWestern MichiganTroySam HoustonFloridaFlorida AtlanticColorado StateWyomingSouthern MissAir ForceTempleGeorgiaTennesseeApp StateCharlotteOregonBoise StateNavyUTSAPenn StateMarshallTexasTexas StateDukeTulaneTulsaOklahoma StateArkansasIowaNorthern IllinoisOld DominionIowa StateLouisianaBYUAuburnBaylorNorthwesternMarylandArizonaSan Diego StateNew MexicoCentral MichiganArizona StateNevadaWestern KentuckyCaliforniaUCLAKentuckyCincinnatiBoston CollegeArmySouth CarolinaKent StateOhio StateBall StateWest VirginiaCoastal CarolinaUConnBowling GreenAlabamaEast CarolinaHoustonOregon StateIndianaNorth TexasJames MadisonLibertyNebraskaOhioPittsburghMiami (OH)SyracuseWashingtonWashington StateNotre DameWisconsinOle MissLouisvilleSMUUSUgood offense, good defense →Offense EPA/play →better defense →
Utah Stateoff −0.13 135thdef −0.06 allowed · 32nd

Every FBS team, through the latest board. EPA is garbage-time filtered. Tap a logo for its numbers.

Records and stats cover FBS-vs-FBS games only — the games the model grades. Rate stats exclude garbage time (a lead of 38+ in the first half, 28+ in the third quarter, 22+ in the fourth); turnovers are counted whole. Hover a row for its definition.