Week 4 report · Sat, Sep 26 · 2026 Week 4
Arizona
5–1 · Ours #50 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
34–24FinalWe had ARIZ 24 – WSU 25
Washington State
1–5 · Ours #80 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
Win chanceOur odds before kickoff: how often each team won outright when we played the game out thousands of times from our line.WSU 52%ARIZ won
WSU 52%ARIZ wonSpreadOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. First seen at ARIZ −13.ARIZ −10.5oursOur computer's point spread for this game, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. Read it like a betting line: −7 means we have that team winning by 7. +0.7 · WSU covered by 0.5
TotalOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. Our total was 49.4.48final 58 · over by 10
Our callThe side our number took at the early-week line, graded at that line. Line value is how far the market moved toward it by the last capture before kickoff.No call
Quarterbacksthis game
Noah Fifita22/36 · 297 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- +0.2362nd pct
- Comp %
- 61.1
- TD
- 4
- Turnovers
- 11 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 3
Caden Pinnick24/40 · 241 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- −0.0337th pct
- Comp %
- 60.0
- TD
- 1
- Turnovers
- 11 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 3
The matchupthis game · ▲▼ better or worse than the unit's usual · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| Arizonaoffense | Played like ARIZ +10.3Fitted from non-garbage efficiency; describes how the game was played, not who deserved it. | defenseWashington State | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 60th | 44.6%▼4.9 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 44.6%▼4.0 | 40th |
| 62nd | +0.14▼0.09 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | +0.14▼0.18 | 38th |
| 66th | +0.23▼0.18 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | +0.23▼0.22 | 34th |
| 51st | +0.05▲0.07 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | +0.05▼0.14 | 49th |
| 41st | 1 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 1▲0.5 | 59th |
| Washington Stateoffense | defenseArizona | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22nd | 32.9%▲5.0 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 32.9%▲6.1 | 78th |
| 35th | −0.05▲0.21 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | −0.05▲0.10 | 65th |
| 41st | −0.03▲0.37 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | −0.03▲0.05 | 59th |
| 31st | −0.10▼0.03 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | −0.10▲0.14 | 69th |
| 16th | 2▼1.0 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 2▲2.0 | 84th |
Team statsthis game · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| ArizonaARIZ | Washington StateWSU | |
|---|---|---|
| Special teams & field position | ||
| Average startWhere the team's drives started on average. | Own 2951st | Own 2530th |
| Kicking vs expectedKickingPoints from field goals and extra points against what an average kicker makes from the same spots. | −2.3 pts6th | −1.7 pts13th |
| Drives & pace | ||
| PlaysOffensive plays outside garbage time. | 7490th | 7083rd |
| Drive pointsThe part of the final margin the offense moved the ball for (efficiency, success rate, big plays, finishing drives), in points. A margin over the opponent. | +10.477th | −10.424th |
| Turnovers & hidden points | ||
| Penalty first downsPenalty 1st downsFirst downs the team was handed by the opponent's penalties. | 248th | 486th |
| 4th downsPoints from going for it on fourth down, against what the average team gets from the same spots. | 0.0 pts51st | +0.2 pts63rd |
| Return touchdownsReturn TDsDefensive and special-teams touchdowns. | 042nd | 192nd |
| Hidden pointsPoints from outside the offense's drives: turnovers, field position, kicking, fourth downs, penalty first downs, return touchdowns and safeties. A margin over the opponent. WSU +2.7: turnovers −2.6, field position −1.1, kicking +0.4, 4th downs +0.3, penalty first downs +1.5, return touchdowns +4.2. | −2.735th | +2.765th |
Season so far
Arizona5–1 · 96th-hardest schedule
Wvs Northern Arizona35–7missed −33
L
at BYU17–28missed +7
at BYU17–28missed +7W
vs Northern Illinois42–17missed −34.5
vs Northern Illinois42–17missed −34.5Wat Washington State34–24missed −10.5
at Washington State34–24missed −10.5W
vs Cincinnati34–7covered −7
vs Cincinnati34–7covered −7W
at West Virginia52–31covered −3.5
at West Virginia52–31covered −3.5Washington State1–5 · 47th-hardest schedule
L
at Washington10–24covered +24
at Washington10–24covered +24L
at Kansas State7–34missed +17.5
at Kansas State7–34missed +17.5Wvs Duquesne48–7covered −38.5
Lvs Arizona24–34covered +10.5
vs Arizona24–34covered +10.5L
vs Fresno State6–26missed −2
vs Fresno State6–26missed −2L
at Utah State16–17covered +4
at Utah State16–17covered +4Model cfb_best · uncertainty ±15.6 · run Sep 26, 6:05 PM EDT · froze at kickoff and graded as-is