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Oct 13, 12:07 PM EDTupdated
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Oct 13, 7:43 AM EDTstats the morning after a game; scores and grades the same night

Washington State

1–5 FBS · Pac-12 · this season
Rating
−7.5
Rank
104
Résumé
131
Projected wins
2.8▼ 3.0 vs preseason
CFP odds
0%

Schedule

our line · the market · graded at the early week line
DateOpponentOur lineOursMarketResultPerf.Our call
Sun, Sep 69/6at WashingtonWASHWSU +13.4WSU +23.5L 10–2446WSU · W
Sat, Sep 129/12at Kansas StateKSUWSU +10.6WSU +17.5L 7–3427WSU · L
Sat, Sep 199/19DuquesneDuquesneWSU −31.4WSU −38.5W 48–781
Sat, Sep 269/26ArizonaARIZWSU −0.7WSU +13.0L 24–3437WSU · W
Sat, Oct 310/3Fresno StateFRESWSU −0.5WSU −2.5L 6–2633FRES · W
Fri, Oct 910/9at Utah StateUSUWSU −0.8WSU +4.0L 16–1751WSU · W
Sat, Oct 1710/17at Oregon StateORSTWSU +15.1WSU +18.0WSU +18.5Pass
Sat, Oct 2410/24Boise StateBOISWSU +12.1—wk 8
Sat, Oct 3110/31at San Diego StateSDSUWSU +1.0—wk 9
Sat, Nov 1411/14Colorado StateCSUWSU −10.3—wk 11
Sat, Nov 2111/21at Texas StateTXSTWSU +11.6—wk 12

Model on WSU games: 4–1 ATS at the early week line · as the favorite 0–0 · as the dog 4–1 · home 1–0, away 3–1 · avg gap to the market +7.0 · closer than the market 3 of 5

Outlook

from 10,000 season simulations
Projected wins
2.81–5 banked, 5 to play · preseason 5.8
Bowl (6+)0%
9+ wins0%
11+ wins0%

The 5 games left add 1.8 expected wins.

Playoff picture
Reach title game1%
Win conference<1%
Make the CFP0%
First-round bye0%
Win it all0%

Full bracket on the playoffs page.

Offense and defense

6 games · rank of 138 FBS
rank of 138
Offense
EPA per play−0.12133rd
Success rate33.3%134th
Pass EPA−0.21131st
Rush EPA+0.0099th
Explosive rate8.0%138th
Quality-drive rate30.9%137th
Points per quality drive3.0123rd
Defense
EPA allowed−0.0145th
Success allowed40.1%63rd
Pass EPA allowed+0.0163rd
Rush EPA allowed−0.0346th
Explosive allowed13.0%95th
Havoc rate8.6%82nd

Special teams, luck and schedule

through the latest board
rank of 138
Special teams & luck
Special teams EPA / game−0.9103rd
Turnover margin−6125th · exp. −5.0
Field position margin−10.2 yd138th
Hidden points / game−3.8gave up
Luck, wins−0.51.5 earned
One-score record0–1flipped 2–4
Rush rate over expected−2.7%82nd
Overall
Rating, pts vs average−7.5104th
Schedule played+2.547th
Schedule remaining−1.071st
Full schedule+0.767th
Pregame expected wins2.9of 6

Ranking by week

ours vs the AP poll
151025Wk 0Wk 2Wk 4Wk 6
Ours 104th · −7.5Week 6
Where they sit · offense vs defensepinch or ⌘/ctrl + scroll to zoom · drag to move · double-tap to reset
−0.200.00+0.20FBS averageStanfordHawai'iFlorida StateNew Mexico StateEastern MichiganSacramento StateNorth Dakota StateJacksonville StateVirginiaNC StateUSCSan José StateUNLVMemphisTCUNorth CarolinaUCFDelawareKennesaw StateBuffaloMinnesotaMissouriUtahRutgersMassachusettsWake ForestAkronGeorgia TechColoradoIllinoisUABFresno StatePurdueGeorgia StateOklahomaUTEPMichigan StateToledoMiamiKansasTexas A&MMissouri StateSouth AlabamaGeorgia SouthernSouth FloridaFlorida InternationalRiceUtah StateMiddle TennesseeArkansas StateVanderbiltTexas TechKansas StateVirginia TechMississippi StateUL MonroeLSUClemsonLouisiana TechMichiganWestern MichiganTroySam HoustonFloridaFlorida AtlanticColorado StateWyomingSouthern MissAir ForceTempleGeorgiaTennesseeApp StateCharlotteOregonBoise StateNavyUTSAPenn StateMarshallTexasTexas StateDukeTulaneTulsaOklahoma StateArkansasIowaNorthern IllinoisOld DominionIowa StateLouisianaBYUAuburnBaylorNorthwesternMarylandArizonaSan Diego StateNew MexicoCentral MichiganArizona StateNevadaWestern KentuckyCaliforniaUCLAKentuckyCincinnatiBoston CollegeArmySouth CarolinaKent StateOhio StateBall StateWest VirginiaCoastal CarolinaUConnBowling GreenAlabamaEast CarolinaHoustonOregon StateIndianaNorth TexasJames MadisonLibertyNebraskaOhioPittsburghMiami (OH)SyracuseWashingtonNotre DameWisconsinOle MissLouisvilleSMUWSUgood offense, good defense →Offense EPA/play →better defense →
Washington Stateoff −0.12 133rddef −0.01 allowed · 45th

Every FBS team, through the latest board. EPA is garbage-time filtered. Tap a logo for its numbers.

Records and stats cover FBS-vs-FBS games only — the games the model grades. Rate stats exclude garbage time (a lead of 38+ in the first half, 28+ in the third quarter, 22+ in the fourth); turnovers are counted whole. Hover a row for its definition.