Oct 13, 7:43 AM EDTstats the morning after a game; scores and grades the same night

Arizona

5–1 FBS · Big 12 · this season
Rating
+10.2
Rank
24
Résumé
25
Projected wins
8.7▲ 2.8 vs preseason
CFP odds
8%

Schedule

our line · the market · graded at the early week line
DateOpponentOur lineOursMarketResultPerf.Our call
Sat, Sep 59/5Northern ArizonaNorthern ArizonaARIZ −31.5ARIZ −33.0W 35–782
Sat, Sep 129/12at BYUBYUARIZ +6.9ARIZ +7.5L 17–2839ARIZ · L
Sat, Sep 199/19Northern IllinoisNIUARIZ −29.6ARIZ −35.0W 42–1763NIU · W
Sat, Sep 269/26at Washington StateWSUARIZ +0.7ARIZ −13.0W 34–2464WSU · W
Sat, Oct 310/3CincinnatiCINARIZ −5.2ARIZ −7.0W 34–780CIN · L
Sat, Oct 1010/10at West VirginiaWVUARIZ −9.3ARIZ −3.0W 52–3159ARIZ · W
Fri, Nov 611/6TCUTCUARIZ −10.3—wk 10
Sat, Nov 1411/14UtahUTAHARIZ +7.5—wk 11
Sat, Nov 2111/21at Kansas StateKSUARIZ −4.1—wk 12
Sat, Nov 2811/28Arizona StateASUARIZ −14.3ARIZ −4.5wk 13

Model on ARIZ games: 3–2 ATS at the early week line · as the favorite 1–0 · as the dog 2–2 · home 1–0, away 2–2 · avg gap to the market +4.8 · closer than the market 2 of 5

Outlook

from 10,000 season simulations
Projected wins
8.75–1 banked, 6 to play · preseason 5.9
Bowl (6+)97%
9+ wins27%
11+ wins0%

The 6 games left add 3.7 expected wins.

Playoff picture
Reach title game10%
Win conference4%
Make the CFP8%
First-round bye1%
Win it all<1%

Full bracket on the playoffs page.

Offense and defense

6 games · rank of 138 FBS
rank of 138
Offense
EPA per play+0.2027th
Success rate50.3%15th
Pass EPA+0.3319th
Rush EPA+0.0585th
Explosive rate15.5%21st
Quality-drive rate57.4%40th
Points per quality drive4.634th
Defense
EPA allowed+0.0056th
Success allowed35.6%23rd
Pass EPA allowed−0.0060th
Rush EPA allowed+0.0168th
Explosive allowed9.7%27th
Havoc rate9.7%57th

Special teams, luck and schedule

through the latest board
rank of 138
Special teams & luck
Special teams EPA / game+1.546th
Turnover margin−179th · exp. −3.0
Field position margin+0.1 yd73rd
Hidden points / game+0.2banked
Luck, wins+0.05.0 earned
One-score record0–0
Rush rate over expected−8.7%131st
Overall
Rating, pts vs average+10.224th
Schedule played−2.997th
Schedule remaining+6.933rd
Full schedule+2.557th
Pregame expected wins2.9of 6

Ranking by week

ours vs the AP poll
151025Wk 0Wk 2Wk 4Wk 6
Ours 24th · +10.2Week 6
Where they sit · offense vs defensepinch or ⌘/ctrl + scroll to zoom · drag to move · double-tap to reset
−0.200.00+0.20FBS averageStanfordHawai'iFlorida StateNew Mexico StateEastern MichiganSacramento StateNorth Dakota StateJacksonville StateVirginiaNC StateUSCSan José StateUNLVMemphisTCUNorth CarolinaUCFDelawareKennesaw StateBuffaloMinnesotaMissouriUtahRutgersMassachusettsWake ForestAkronGeorgia TechColoradoIllinoisUABFresno StatePurdueGeorgia StateOklahomaUTEPMichigan StateToledoMiamiKansasTexas A&MMissouri StateSouth AlabamaGeorgia SouthernSouth FloridaFlorida InternationalRiceUtah StateMiddle TennesseeArkansas StateVanderbiltTexas TechKansas StateVirginia TechMississippi StateUL MonroeLSUClemsonLouisiana TechMichiganWestern MichiganTroySam HoustonFloridaFlorida AtlanticColorado StateWyomingSouthern MissAir ForceTempleGeorgiaTennesseeApp StateCharlotteOregonBoise StateNavyUTSAPenn StateMarshallTexasTexas StateDukeTulaneTulsaOklahoma StateArkansasIowaNorthern IllinoisOld DominionIowa StateLouisianaBYUAuburnBaylorNorthwesternMarylandSan Diego StateNew MexicoCentral MichiganArizona StateNevadaWestern KentuckyCaliforniaUCLAKentuckyCincinnatiBoston CollegeArmySouth CarolinaKent StateOhio StateBall StateWest VirginiaCoastal CarolinaUConnBowling GreenAlabamaEast CarolinaHoustonOregon StateIndianaNorth TexasJames MadisonLibertyNebraskaOhioPittsburghMiami (OH)SyracuseWashingtonWashington StateNotre DameWisconsinOle MissLouisvilleSMUARIZgood offense, good defense →Offense EPA/play →better defense →
Arizonaoff +0.20 27thdef +0.00 allowed · 56th

Every FBS team, through the latest board. EPA is garbage-time filtered. Tap a logo for its numbers.

Records and stats cover FBS-vs-FBS games only — the games the model grades. Rate stats exclude garbage time (a lead of 38+ in the first half, 28+ in the third quarter, 22+ in the fourth); turnovers are counted whole. Hover a row for its definition.