Board · Rankings · CollegeNext: vs ISU · Sat, Oct 24 · time TBD →
Oct 13, 7:43 AM EDTstats the morning after a game; scores and grades the same night

Arizona
5–1 FBS · Big 12 · this season
Rating
+10.2
Rank
24
Résumé
25
Projected wins
8.7▲ 2.8 vs preseason
CFP odds
8%
Schedule
our line · the market · graded at the early week lineDateOpponentOur lineOursMarketResultPerf.Our call
Model on ARIZ games: 3–2 ATS at the early week line · as the favorite 1–0 · as the dog 2–2 · home 1–0, away 2–2 · avg gap to the market +4.8 · closer than the market 2 of 5
Outlook
from 10,000 season simulationsProjected wins
8.75–1 banked, 6 to play · preseason 5.9
Bowl (6+)97%
9+ wins27%
11+ wins0%
The 6 games left add 3.7 expected wins.
Playoff picture
Reach title game10%
Win conference4%
Make the CFP8%
First-round bye1%
Win it all<1%
Full bracket on the playoffs page.
Offense and defense
6 games · rank of 138 FBSrank of 138
Offense
EPA per play+0.2027th
Success rate50.3%15th
Pass EPA+0.3319th
Rush EPA+0.0585th
Explosive rate15.5%21st
Quality-drive rate57.4%40th
Points per quality drive4.634th
Defense
EPA allowed+0.0056th
Success allowed35.6%23rd
Pass EPA allowed−0.0060th
Rush EPA allowed+0.0168th
Explosive allowed9.7%27th
Havoc rate9.7%57th
Special teams, luck and schedule
through the latest boardrank of 138
Special teams & luck
Special teams EPA / game+1.546th
Turnover margin−179th · exp. −3.0
Field position margin+0.1 yd73rd
Hidden points / game+0.2banked
Luck, wins+0.05.0 earned
One-score record0–0
Rush rate over expected−8.7%131st
Overall
Rating, pts vs average+10.224th
Schedule played−2.997th
Schedule remaining+6.933rd
Full schedule+2.557th
Pregame expected wins2.9of 6
Ranking by week
ours vs the AP pollOurs 24th · +10.2Week 6
Where they sit · offense vs defensepinch or ⌘/ctrl + scroll to zoom · drag to move · double-tap to reset
Arizonaoff +0.20 27thdef +0.00 allowed · 56th
Every FBS team, through the latest board. EPA is garbage-time filtered. Tap a logo for its numbers.
Arizonaoff +0.20 27thdef +0.00 allowed · 56th
Records and stats cover FBS-vs-FBS games only — the games the model grades. Rate stats exclude garbage time (a lead of 38+ in the first half, 28+ in the third quarter, 22+ in the fourth); turnovers are counted whole. Hover a row for its definition.
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