Week 6 report · Sat, Oct 10 · 2026 Week 6
Hawai'i
1–5 · Ours #123 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
12–30FinalWe had HAW 18 – ASU 35
Arizona State
3–2 · Ours #74 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
Win chanceOur odds before kickoff: how often each team won outright when we played the game out thousands of times from our line.ASU 85%ASU won
ASU 85%ASU wonSpreadOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. First seen at ASU −22.5.ASU −21oursOur computer's point spread for this game, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. Read it like a betting line: −7 means we have that team winning by 7. −17.5 · HAW covered by 3
TotalOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. Our total was 53.1.51final 42 · under by 9
Our callThe side our number took at the early-week line, graded at that line. Line value is how far the market moved toward it by the last capture before kickoff.HAW +21.5Wbeat the close by 0.5
HAW +21.5Wbeat the close by 0.5Quarterbacksthis game
Micah Alejado25/49 · 252 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- −0.2319th pct
- Comp %
- 51.0
- TD
- 1
- Turnovers
- 11 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 3
Cutter Boley21/31 · 189 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- +0.0240th pct
- Comp %
- 67.7
- TD
- 2
- Turnovers
- 00 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 1
The matchupthis game · ▲▼ better or worse than the unit's usual · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| Hawai'ioffense | Played like ASU +16.8Fitted from non-garbage efficiency; describes how the game was played, not who deserved it. | defenseArizona State | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 38th | 38.4%▼1.2 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 38.4%▲1.3 | 62nd |
| 27th | −0.11▼0.14 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | −0.11▲0.15 | 73rd |
| 23rd | −0.23▼0.30 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | −0.23▲0.30 | 77th |
| 77th | +0.23▲0.28 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | +0.23▼0.25 | 24th |
| 41st | 1▼0.4 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 1▲0.3 | 59th |
| Arizona Stateoffense | defenseHawai'i | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 86th | 54.1%▲18.0 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 54.1%▼9.1 | 14th |
| 64th | +0.16▲0.27 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | +0.16▼0.08 | 36th |
| 46th | +0.02▲0.14 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | +0.02▲0.10 | 55th |
| 85th | +0.32▲0.41 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | +0.32▼0.27 | 15th |
| 79th | 0▲1.3 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 0▼0.4 | 21st |
Team statsthis game · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| Hawai'iHAW | Arizona StateASU | |
|---|---|---|
| Special teams & field position | ||
| Average startWhere the team's drives started on average. | Own 2636th | Own 2420th |
| Kicking vs expectedKickingPoints from field goals and extra points against what an average kicker makes from the same spots. | −0.2 pts28th | −1.1 pts22nd |
| Drives & pace | ||
| PlaysOffensive plays outside garbage time. | 7389th | 6162nd |
| Drive pointsThe part of the final margin the offense moved the ball for (efficiency, success rate, big plays, finishing drives), in points. A margin over the opponent. | −18.212th | +18.288th |
| Turnovers & hidden points | ||
| Penalty first downsPenalty 1st downsFirst downs the team was handed by the opponent's penalties. | 486th | 122nd |
| 4th downsPoints from going for it on fourth down, against what the average team gets from the same spots. | 0.0 pts41st | 0.0 pts51st |
| Hidden pointsPoints from outside the offense's drives: turnovers, field position, kicking, fourth downs, penalty first downs, return touchdowns and safeties. A margin over the opponent. HAW +1.1: turnovers −2.6, field position +0.8, kicking +0.6, penalty first downs +2.3. | +1.155th | −1.145th |
Season so far
Hawai'i1–5 · 128th-hardest schedule
L
at Stanford27–37missed +4.5
at Stanford27–37missed +4.5L
vs UNLV6–21missed +2.5
vs UNLV6–21missed +2.5W
vs New Mexico State29–19covered −7.5
vs New Mexico State29–19covered −7.5L
at Wyoming10–27missed −2
at Wyoming10–27missed −2L
vs San José State16–20missed −3
vs San José State16–20missed −3Lat Arizona State12–30covered +21
at Arizona State12–30covered +21Arizona State3–2 · 44th-hardest schedule
Wvs Morgan State70–7covered −43.5
L
at Texas A&M20–48missed +14.5
at Texas A&M20–48missed +14.5W
at Kansas24–17covered −5.5
at Kansas24–17covered −5.5L
vs Baylor19–55missed −3.5
vs Baylor19–55missed −3.5Wvs Hawai'i30–12missed −21
vs Hawai'i30–12missed −21Model cfb_scratch · uncertainty ±15.5 · run Oct 10, 7:15 AM EDT · froze at kickoff and graded as-is