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Oct 13, 12:07 PM EDTupdated
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Oct 13, 7:43 AM EDTstats the morning after a game; scores and grades the same night

Arizona State

3–2 FBS · Big 12 · this season
Rating
−0.8
Rank
73
Résumé
58
Projected wins
5.5▼ 0.3 vs preseason
CFP odds
<1%

Schedule

our line · the market · graded at the early week line
DateOpponentOur lineOursMarketResultPerf.Our call
Sat, Sep 59/5Morgan StateMorgan StateASU −31.4ASU −43.5W 70–790
Sat, Sep 129/12at Texas A&MTA&MASU +19.8ASU +14.5L 20–4856TA&M · W
Sat, Sep 199/19at KansasKUASU −1.2ASU −5.5W 24–1737KU · L
Sat, Oct 310/3BaylorBAYASU −1.8ASU −4.0L 19–5531BAY · W
Sat, Oct 1010/10Hawai'iHAWASU −17.5ASU −21.5W 30–1269HAW · W
Sat, Oct 1710/17at Texas TechTTUASU +14.0ASU +14.5ASU +14.5Pass
Sat, Oct 2410/24Kansas StateKSUASU +3.6—wk 8
Sat, Oct 3110/31at BYUBYUASU +17.0—wk 9
Sat, Nov 711/7ColoradoCOLOASU −8.1—wk 10
Sat, Nov 1411/14at UCFUCFASU +2.3—wk 11
Sat, Nov 2111/21Oklahoma StateOKSTASU +1.9—wk 12
Sat, Nov 2811/28at ArizonaARIZASU +14.3ASU +4.5wk 13

Model on ASU games: 3–1 ATS at the early week line · as the favorite 1–0 · as the dog 2–1 · home 1–1, away 2–0 · avg gap to the market +3.7 · closer than the market 3 of 4

Outlook

from 10,000 season simulations
Projected wins
5.53–2 banked, 7 to play · preseason 5.8
Bowl (6+)23%
9+ wins0%
11+ wins0%

The 7 games left add 2.5 expected wins.

Playoff picture
Reach title game1%
Win conference<1%
Make the CFP<1%
First-round bye0%
Win it all0%

Full bracket on the playoffs page.

Offense and defense

5 games · rank of 138 FBS
rank of 138
Offense
EPA per play+0.0485th
Success rate44.8%54th
Pass EPA+0.0196th
Rush EPA+0.0775th
Explosive rate15.5%19th
Quality-drive rate44.8%106th
Points per quality drive3.793rd
Defense
EPA allowed−0.0239th
Success allowed38.5%45th
Pass EPA allowed−0.0543rd
Rush EPA allowed+0.0271st
Explosive allowed11.3%61st
Havoc rate7.4%108th

Special teams, luck and schedule

through the latest board
rank of 138
Special teams & luck
Special teams EPA / game−0.079th
Turnover margin069th · exp. −1.5
Field position margin0.0 yd75th
Hidden points / game−5.0gave up
Luck, wins+0.32.7 earned
One-score record1–0flipped 2–3
Rush rate over expected−6.0%116th
Overall
Rating, pts vs average−0.873rd
Schedule played+3.044th
Schedule remaining+5.638th
Full schedule+4.741st
Pregame expected wins2.5of 5

Ranking by week

ours vs the AP poll
151025Wk 0Wk 2Wk 4Wk 6
Ours 73rd · −0.8Week 6
Where they sit · offense vs defensepinch or ⌘/ctrl + scroll to zoom · drag to move · double-tap to reset
−0.200.00+0.20FBS averageStanfordHawai'iFlorida StateNew Mexico StateEastern MichiganSacramento StateNorth Dakota StateJacksonville StateVirginiaNC StateUSCSan José StateUNLVMemphisTCUNorth CarolinaUCFDelawareKennesaw StateBuffaloMinnesotaMissouriUtahRutgersMassachusettsWake ForestAkronGeorgia TechColoradoIllinoisUABFresno StatePurdueGeorgia StateOklahomaUTEPMichigan StateToledoMiamiKansasTexas A&MMissouri StateSouth AlabamaGeorgia SouthernSouth FloridaFlorida InternationalRiceUtah StateMiddle TennesseeArkansas StateVanderbiltTexas TechKansas StateVirginia TechMississippi StateUL MonroeLSUClemsonLouisiana TechMichiganWestern MichiganTroySam HoustonFloridaFlorida AtlanticColorado StateWyomingSouthern MissAir ForceTempleGeorgiaTennesseeApp StateCharlotteOregonBoise StateNavyUTSAPenn StateMarshallTexasTexas StateDukeTulaneTulsaOklahoma StateArkansasIowaNorthern IllinoisOld DominionIowa StateLouisianaBYUAuburnBaylorNorthwesternMarylandArizonaSan Diego StateNew MexicoCentral MichiganNevadaWestern KentuckyCaliforniaUCLAKentuckyCincinnatiBoston CollegeArmySouth CarolinaKent StateOhio StateBall StateWest VirginiaCoastal CarolinaUConnBowling GreenAlabamaEast CarolinaHoustonOregon StateIndianaNorth TexasJames MadisonLibertyNebraskaOhioPittsburghMiami (OH)SyracuseWashingtonWashington StateNotre DameWisconsinOle MissLouisvilleSMUASUgood offense, good defense →Offense EPA/play →better defense →
Arizona Stateoff +0.04 85thdef −0.02 allowed · 39th

Every FBS team, through the latest board. EPA is garbage-time filtered. Tap a logo for its numbers.

Records and stats cover FBS-vs-FBS games only — the games the model grades. Rate stats exclude garbage time (a lead of 38+ in the first half, 28+ in the third quarter, 22+ in the fourth); turnovers are counted whole. Hover a row for its definition.