Oct 13, 7:43 AM EDTstats the morning after a game; scores and grades the same night

Hawai'i

1–5 FBS · Mountain West · this season
Rating
−12.2
Rank
125
Résumé
136
Projected wins
3.7▼ 2.9 vs preseason
CFP odds
0%

Schedule

our line · the market · graded at the early week line
DateOpponentOur lineOursMarketResultPerf.Our call
Sat, Aug 298/29at StanfordSTANHAW +5.6HAW +5.5L 27–3750HAW · L
Sat, Sep 59/5UNLVUNLVHAW +6.5HAW +3.0L 6–2143UNLV · W
Sat, Sep 129/12New Mexico StateNMSUHAW −9.6HAW −10.0W 29–1956HAW · Push
Sat, Sep 269/26at WyomingWYOHAW −9.7HAW −5.5L 10–2729HAW · L
Sat, Oct 310/3San José StateSJSUHAW −1.4HAW −3.0L 16–2061SJSU · W
Sat, Oct 1010/10at Arizona StateASUHAW +17.5HAW +21.5L 12–3032HAW · W
Sat, Oct 1710/17New MexicoUNMHAW +19.4HAW +14.5UNM −14.5Pass
Sat, Nov 711/7at UTEPUTEPHAW −6.7—wk 10
Sat, Nov 2111/21at NevadaNEVHAW +7.1—wk 12

Model on HAW games: 3–2–1 ATS at the early week line · as the favorite 1–1 · as the dog 2–1 · home 0–0, away 3–2 · avg gap to the market +3.6 · closer than the market 5 of 6

Outlook

from 10,000 season simulations
Projected wins
3.71–5 banked, 6 to play · preseason 6.6
Bowl (6+)5%
9+ wins0%
11+ wins0%

The 6 games left add 2.7 expected wins.

Playoff picture
Reach title game<1%
Win conference0%
Make the CFP0%
First-round bye0%
Win it all0%

Full bracket on the playoffs page.

Offense and defense

6 games · rank of 138 FBS
rank of 138
Offense
EPA per play+0.00100th
Success rate39.3%115th
Pass EPA+0.0195th
Rush EPA−0.01103rd
Explosive rate9.9%120th
Quality-drive rate44.3%108th
Points per quality drive2.7132nd
Defense
EPA allowed+0.10100th
Success allowed46.4%122nd
Pass EPA allowed+0.1193rd
Rush EPA allowed+0.0894th
Explosive allowed13.7%107th
Havoc rate6.9%118th

Special teams, luck and schedule

through the latest board
rank of 138
Special teams & luck
Special teams EPA / game+1.447th
Turnover margin−294th · exp. −1.5
Field position margin+0.3 yd70th
Hidden points / game−2.0gave up
Luck, wins−1.12.1 earned
One-score record0–1flipped 2–4
Rush rate over expected−17.6%138th
Overall
Rating, pts vs average−12.2125th
Schedule played−7.5128th
Schedule remaining−8.7120th
Full schedule−8.1129th
Pregame expected wins2.1of 6

Ranking by week

ours vs the AP poll
151025Wk 0Wk 2Wk 4Wk 6
Ours 125th · −12.2Week 6
Where they sit · offense vs defensepinch or ⌘/ctrl + scroll to zoom · drag to move · double-tap to reset
−0.200.00+0.20FBS averageStanfordFlorida StateNew Mexico StateEastern MichiganSacramento StateNorth Dakota StateJacksonville StateVirginiaNC StateUSCSan José StateUNLVMemphisTCUNorth CarolinaUCFDelawareKennesaw StateBuffaloMinnesotaMissouriUtahRutgersMassachusettsWake ForestAkronGeorgia TechColoradoIllinoisUABFresno StatePurdueGeorgia StateOklahomaUTEPMichigan StateToledoMiamiKansasTexas A&MMissouri StateSouth AlabamaGeorgia SouthernSouth FloridaFlorida InternationalRiceUtah StateMiddle TennesseeArkansas StateVanderbiltTexas TechKansas StateVirginia TechMississippi StateUL MonroeLSUClemsonLouisiana TechMichiganWestern MichiganTroySam HoustonFloridaFlorida AtlanticColorado StateWyomingSouthern MissAir ForceTempleGeorgiaTennesseeApp StateCharlotteOregonBoise StateNavyUTSAPenn StateMarshallTexasTexas StateDukeTulaneTulsaOklahoma StateArkansasIowaNorthern IllinoisOld DominionIowa StateLouisianaBYUAuburnBaylorNorthwesternMarylandArizonaSan Diego StateNew MexicoCentral MichiganArizona StateNevadaWestern KentuckyCaliforniaUCLAKentuckyCincinnatiBoston CollegeArmySouth CarolinaKent StateOhio StateBall StateWest VirginiaCoastal CarolinaUConnBowling GreenAlabamaEast CarolinaHoustonOregon StateIndianaNorth TexasJames MadisonLibertyNebraskaOhioPittsburghMiami (OH)SyracuseWashingtonWashington StateNotre DameWisconsinOle MissLouisvilleSMUHAWgood offense, good defense →Offense EPA/play →better defense →
Hawai'ioff +0.00 100thdef +0.10 allowed · 100th

Every FBS team, through the latest board. EPA is garbage-time filtered. Tap a logo for its numbers.

Records and stats cover FBS-vs-FBS games only — the games the model grades. Rate stats exclude garbage time (a lead of 38+ in the first half, 28+ in the third quarter, 22+ in the fourth); turnovers are counted whole. Hover a row for its definition.