Oct 13, 7:43 AM EDTstats the morning after a game; scores and grades the same night

Hawai'i
1–5 FBS · Mountain West · this season
Rating
−12.2
Rank
125
Résumé
136
Projected wins
3.7▼ 2.9 vs preseason
CFP odds
0%
Schedule
our line · the market · graded at the early week lineDateOpponentOur lineOursMarketResultPerf.Our call
Model on HAW games: 3–2–1 ATS at the early week line · as the favorite 1–1 · as the dog 2–1 · home 0–0, away 3–2 · avg gap to the market +3.6 · closer than the market 5 of 6
Outlook
from 10,000 season simulationsProjected wins
3.71–5 banked, 6 to play · preseason 6.6
Bowl (6+)5%
9+ wins0%
11+ wins0%
The 6 games left add 2.7 expected wins.
Playoff picture
Reach title game<1%
Win conference0%
Make the CFP0%
First-round bye0%
Win it all0%
Full bracket on the playoffs page.
Offense and defense
6 games · rank of 138 FBSrank of 138
Offense
EPA per play+0.00100th
Success rate39.3%115th
Pass EPA+0.0195th
Rush EPA−0.01103rd
Explosive rate9.9%120th
Quality-drive rate44.3%108th
Points per quality drive2.7132nd
Defense
EPA allowed+0.10100th
Success allowed46.4%122nd
Pass EPA allowed+0.1193rd
Rush EPA allowed+0.0894th
Explosive allowed13.7%107th
Havoc rate6.9%118th
Special teams, luck and schedule
through the latest boardrank of 138
Special teams & luck
Special teams EPA / game+1.447th
Turnover margin−294th · exp. −1.5
Field position margin+0.3 yd70th
Hidden points / game−2.0gave up
Luck, wins−1.12.1 earned
One-score record0–1flipped 2–4
Rush rate over expected−17.6%138th
Overall
Rating, pts vs average−12.2125th
Schedule played−7.5128th
Schedule remaining−8.7120th
Full schedule−8.1129th
Pregame expected wins2.1of 6
Ranking by week
ours vs the AP pollOurs 125th · −12.2Week 6
Where they sit · offense vs defensepinch or ⌘/ctrl + scroll to zoom · drag to move · double-tap to reset
Hawai'ioff +0.00 100thdef +0.10 allowed · 100th
Every FBS team, through the latest board. EPA is garbage-time filtered. Tap a logo for its numbers.
Hawai'ioff +0.00 100thdef +0.10 allowed · 100th
Records and stats cover FBS-vs-FBS games only — the games the model grades. Rate stats exclude garbage time (a lead of 38+ in the first half, 28+ in the third quarter, 22+ in the fourth); turnovers are counted whole. Hover a row for its definition.
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