Week 3 report · Fri, Sep 18 · 2026 Week 3
AP #22Houston
5–1 · Ours #57 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
26–28FinalWe had HOU 20 – TTU 30
AP #13Texas Tech
5–0 · Ours #19 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
Win chanceOur odds before kickoff: how often each team won outright when we played the game out thousands of times from our line.TTU 73%TTU won
TTU 73%TTU wonSpreadOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. First seen at TTU −9.TTU −7.5oursOur computer's point spread for this game, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. Read it like a betting line: −7 means we have that team winning by 7. −10 · HOU covered by 5.5
TotalOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. Our total was 50.3.52.5final 54 · over by 1.5
Our callThe side our number took at the early-week line, graded at that line. Line value is how far the market moved toward it by the last capture before kickoff.TTU −9.5Llost 2.0 to the close
TTU −9.5Llost 2.0 to the closeQuarterbacksthis game
Conner Weigman27/38 · 282 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- +0.1655th pct
- Comp %
- 71.1
- TD
- 3
- Turnovers
- 00 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 3
Will Hammond17/27 · 257 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- +0.4177th pct
- Comp %
- 63.0
- TD
- 1
- Turnovers
- 11 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 1
The matchupthis game · ▲▼ better or worse than the unit's usual · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| Houstonoffense | Played evenFitted from non-garbage efficiency; describes how the game was played, not who deserved it. | defenseTexas Tech | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 84th | 52.7%▲0.8 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 52.7%▼17.1 | 16th |
| 67th | +0.19▼0.05 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | +0.19▼0.40 | 33rd |
| 59th | +0.16▼0.34 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | +0.16▼0.35 | 41st |
| 75th | +0.22▲0.13 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | +0.22▼0.47 | 25th |
| 41st | 1▼0.5 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 1▼1.7 | 59th |
| Texas Techoffense | defenseHouston | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 71st | 48.3%▲3.1 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 48.3%▼7.5 | 29th |
| 68th | +0.19▲0.28 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | +0.19▼0.09 | 33rd |
| 71st | +0.28▲0.36 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | +0.28▼0.13 | 29th |
| 58th | +0.10▲0.19 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | +0.10▼0.12 | 42nd |
| 16th | 2▼0.7 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 2▲1.5 | 84th |
Team statsthis game · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| HoustonHOU | Texas TechTTU | |
|---|---|---|
| Special teams & field position | ||
| Average startWhere the team's drives started on average. | Own 2417th | Own 2632nd |
| Kicking vs expectedKickingPoints from field goals and extra points against what an average kicker makes from the same spots. | +0.7 pts65th | 0.0 pts39th |
| Drives & pace | ||
| PlaysOffensive plays outside garbage time. | 7490th | 6059th |
| Drive pointsThe part of the final margin the offense moved the ball for (efficiency, success rate, big plays, finishing drives), in points. A margin over the opponent. | −3.043rd | +3.057th |
| Turnovers & hidden points | ||
| Penalty first downsPenalty 1st downsFirst downs the team was handed by the opponent's penalties. | 05th | 248th |
| 4th downsPoints from going for it on fourth down, against what the average team gets from the same spots. | 0.0 pts51st | −0.5 pts21st |
| Hidden pointsPoints from outside the offense's drives: turnovers, field position, kicking, fourth downs, penalty first downs, return touchdowns and safeties. A margin over the opponent. HOU +1.5: turnovers +2.6, field position −0.8, kicking +0.5, 4th downs +0.7, penalty first downs −1.5. | +1.557th | −1.543rd |
Season so far
Houston5–1 · 33rd-hardest schedule
W
vs Oregon State33–20missed −21
vs Oregon State33–20missed −21Wvs Southern77–6covered −52
Lat Texas Tech26–28covered +7.5
at Texas Tech26–28covered +7.5W
at Georgia Southern42–28missed −17.5
at Georgia Southern42–28missed −17.5W
vs UCF27–17missed −10.5
vs UCF27–17missed −10.5W
at Kansas State35–16covered +2.5
at Kansas State35–16covered +2.5Texas Tech5–0 · 75th-hardest schedule
Wvs Abilene Christian33–10missed −44.5
Wat Oregon State35–24missed −25.5
at Oregon State35–24missed −25.5Wvs Houston28–26missed −7.5
vs Houston28–26missed −7.5W
vs Sam Houston49–14covered −34.5
vs Sam Houston49–14covered −34.5W
at Colorado29–7covered −13.5
at Colorado29–7covered −13.5Model cfb_best · uncertainty ±15.5 · run Sep 18, 6:05 PM EDT · froze at kickoff and graded as-is