Oct 13, 7:43 AM EDTstats the morning after a game; scores and grades the same night

Texas Tech

5–0 FBS · Big 12 · this season
Rating
+10.7
Rank
20
Résumé
13
Projected wins
9.7▲ 0.5 vs preseason
CFP odds
32%

Schedule

our line · the market · graded at the early week line
DateOpponentOur lineOursMarketResultPerf.Our call
Sat, Sep 59/5Abilene ChristianAbilene ChristianTTU −33.8TTU −44.5W 33–1059
Sat, Sep 129/12at Oregon StateORSTTTU −18.2TTU −25.5W 35–2457ORST · W
Fri, Sep 189/18HoustonHOUTTU −10.0TTU −9.5W 28–2651TTU · L
Sat, Sep 269/26Sam HoustonSHSUTTU −29.2TTU −38.5W 49–1461SHSU · W
Sat, Oct 310/3at ColoradoCOLOTTU −14.0TTU −13.0W 29–751TTU · W
Sat, Oct 1710/17Arizona StateASUTTU −14.0TTU −14.5ASU +14.5Pass
Sat, Oct 2410/24at CincinnatiCINTTU −7.9—wk 8
Sat, Nov 1411/14at Oklahoma StateOKSTTTU −5.0TTU −15.5wk 11
Sat, Nov 2111/21at BaylorBAYTTU +0.9—wk 12
Thu, Nov 2611/26TCUTCUTTU −9.5—wk 13

Model on TTU games: 3–1 ATS at the early week line · as the favorite 1–1 · as the dog 2–0 · home 1–1, away 2–0 · avg gap to the market +3.9 · closer than the market 2 of 4

Outlook

from 10,000 season simulations
Projected wins
9.75–0 banked, 7 to play · preseason 9.2
Bowl (6+)99%
9+ wins57%
11+ wins8%

The 7 games left add 4.7 expected wins.

Playoff picture
Reach title game32%
Win conference12%
Make the CFP32%
First-round bye5%
Win it all1%
  • A CFP bid: 38% with a win vs Arizona State, 9% with a loss.
  • Scoreboard watch: root for Colorado over Utah — swings a CFP bid between 32% and 36%.

Full bracket on the playoffs page.

Offense and defense

5 games · rank of 138 FBS
rank of 138
Offense
EPA per play−0.03116th
Success rate46.7%43rd
Pass EPA+0.0198th
Rush EPA−0.06116th
Explosive rate13.4%54th
Quality-drive rate56.4%43rd
Points per quality drive4.543rd
Defense
EPA allowed−0.1120th
Success allowed38.3%44th
Pass EPA allowed−0.1130th
Rush EPA allowed−0.1119th
Explosive allowed11.4%64th
Havoc rate9.7%54th

Special teams, luck and schedule

through the latest board
rank of 138
Special teams & luck
Special teams EPA / game+4.74th
Turnover margin+87th · exp. +4.0
Field position margin+2.6 yd47th
Hidden points / game+9.1banked
Luck, wins+0.74.3 earned
One-score record1–0flipped 4–1
Rush rate over expected+0.3%52nd
Overall
Rating, pts vs average+10.720th
Schedule played−0.175th
Schedule remaining+3.657th
Full schedule+2.358th
Pregame expected wins2.8of 5

Ranking by week

ours vs the AP poll
151025Wk 0Wk 2Wk 4Wk 6
Ours 20th · +10.7AP 10thWeek 6
Where they sit · offense vs defensepinch or ⌘/ctrl + scroll to zoom · drag to move · double-tap to reset
−0.200.00+0.20FBS averageStanfordHawai'iFlorida StateNew Mexico StateEastern MichiganSacramento StateNorth Dakota StateJacksonville StateVirginiaNC StateUSCSan José StateUNLVMemphisTCUNorth CarolinaUCFDelawareKennesaw StateBuffaloMinnesotaMissouriUtahRutgersMassachusettsWake ForestAkronGeorgia TechColoradoIllinoisUABFresno StatePurdueGeorgia StateOklahomaUTEPMichigan StateToledoMiamiKansasTexas A&MMissouri StateSouth AlabamaGeorgia SouthernSouth FloridaFlorida InternationalRiceUtah StateMiddle TennesseeArkansas StateVanderbiltKansas StateVirginia TechMississippi StateUL MonroeLSUClemsonLouisiana TechMichiganWestern MichiganTroySam HoustonFloridaFlorida AtlanticColorado StateWyomingSouthern MissAir ForceTempleGeorgiaTennesseeApp StateCharlotteOregonBoise StateNavyUTSAPenn StateMarshallTexasTexas StateDukeTulaneTulsaOklahoma StateArkansasIowaNorthern IllinoisOld DominionIowa StateLouisianaBYUAuburnBaylorNorthwesternMarylandArizonaSan Diego StateNew MexicoCentral MichiganArizona StateNevadaWestern KentuckyCaliforniaUCLAKentuckyCincinnatiBoston CollegeArmySouth CarolinaKent StateOhio StateBall StateWest VirginiaCoastal CarolinaUConnBowling GreenAlabamaEast CarolinaHoustonOregon StateIndianaNorth TexasJames MadisonLibertyNebraskaOhioPittsburghMiami (OH)SyracuseWashingtonWashington StateNotre DameWisconsinOle MissLouisvilleSMUTTUgood offense, good defense →Offense EPA/play →better defense →
Texas Techoff −0.03 116thdef −0.11 allowed · 20th

Every FBS team, through the latest board. EPA is garbage-time filtered. Tap a logo for its numbers.

Records and stats cover FBS-vs-FBS games only — the games the model grades. Rate stats exclude garbage time (a lead of 38+ in the first half, 28+ in the third quarter, 22+ in the fourth); turnovers are counted whole. Hover a row for its definition.