Oct 13, 7:43 AM EDTstats the morning after a game; scores and grades the same night

Texas Tech
5–0 FBS · Big 12 · this season
Rating
+10.7
Rank
20
Résumé
13
Projected wins
9.7▲ 0.5 vs preseason
CFP odds
32%
Schedule
our line · the market · graded at the early week lineDateOpponentOur lineOursMarketResultPerf.Our call
Model on TTU games: 3–1 ATS at the early week line · as the favorite 1–1 · as the dog 2–0 · home 1–1, away 2–0 · avg gap to the market +3.9 · closer than the market 2 of 4
Outlook
from 10,000 season simulationsProjected wins
9.75–0 banked, 7 to play · preseason 9.2
Bowl (6+)99%
9+ wins57%
11+ wins8%
The 7 games left add 4.7 expected wins.
Playoff picture
Reach title game32%
Win conference12%
Make the CFP32%
First-round bye5%
Win it all1%
- A CFP bid: 38% with a win vs Arizona State, 9% with a loss.
- Scoreboard watch: root for Colorado over Utah — swings a CFP bid between 32% and 36%.
Full bracket on the playoffs page.
Offense and defense
5 games · rank of 138 FBSrank of 138
Offense
EPA per play−0.03116th
Success rate46.7%43rd
Pass EPA+0.0198th
Rush EPA−0.06116th
Explosive rate13.4%54th
Quality-drive rate56.4%43rd
Points per quality drive4.543rd
Defense
EPA allowed−0.1120th
Success allowed38.3%44th
Pass EPA allowed−0.1130th
Rush EPA allowed−0.1119th
Explosive allowed11.4%64th
Havoc rate9.7%54th
Special teams, luck and schedule
through the latest boardrank of 138
Special teams & luck
Special teams EPA / game+4.74th
Turnover margin+87th · exp. +4.0
Field position margin+2.6 yd47th
Hidden points / game+9.1banked
Luck, wins+0.74.3 earned
One-score record1–0flipped 4–1
Rush rate over expected+0.3%52nd
Overall
Rating, pts vs average+10.720th
Schedule played−0.175th
Schedule remaining+3.657th
Full schedule+2.358th
Pregame expected wins2.8of 5
Ranking by week
ours vs the AP pollOurs 20th · +10.7AP 10thWeek 6
Where they sit · offense vs defensepinch or ⌘/ctrl + scroll to zoom · drag to move · double-tap to reset
Texas Techoff −0.03 116thdef −0.11 allowed · 20th
Every FBS team, through the latest board. EPA is garbage-time filtered. Tap a logo for its numbers.
Texas Techoff −0.03 116thdef −0.11 allowed · 20th
Records and stats cover FBS-vs-FBS games only — the games the model grades. Rate stats exclude garbage time (a lead of 38+ in the first half, 28+ in the third quarter, 22+ in the fourth); turnovers are counted whole. Hover a row for its definition.
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