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Oct 13, 12:07 PM EDTupdated
Board · Rankings · CollegeNext: vs OKST · Sat, Oct 17 · 7:30 PM ET →

Oct 13, 7:43 AM EDTstats the morning after a game; scores and grades the same night

Houston

5–1 FBS · Big 12 · this season
Rating
+10.4
Rank
22
Résumé
12
Projected wins
9.2▲ 3.1 vs preseason
CFP odds
18%

Schedule

our line · the market · graded at the early week line
DateOpponentOur lineOursMarketResultPerf.Our call
Sat, Sep 59/5Oregon StateORSTHOU −13.1HOU −20.5W 33–2062ORST · W
Sat, Sep 129/12SouthernSouthernHOU −38.4HOU −52.0W 77–699
Fri, Sep 189/18at Texas TechTTUHOU +10.0HOU +9.5L 26–2850TTU · L
Sat, Sep 269/26at Georgia SouthernGASOHOU −11.5HOU −20.5W 42–2847GASO · W
Sat, Oct 310/3UCFUCFHOU −8.5HOU −12.0W 27–1767UCF · W
Sat, Oct 1010/10at Kansas StateKSUHOU +1.4HOU +2.5W 35–1662HOU · W
Sat, Oct 1710/17Oklahoma StateOKSTHOU −12.1HOU −4.5HOU −4.5No call
Sat, Oct 2410/24at UtahUTAHHOU +10.1HOU +6.5wk 8
Sat, Nov 711/7CincinnatiCINHOU −15.5—wk 10
Fri, Nov 1311/13at ColoradoCOLOHOU −17.7—wk 11
Sat, Nov 2111/21at West VirginiaWVUHOU −14.6—wk 12
Sat, Nov 2811/28BaylorBAYHOU −6.2—wk 13

Model on HOU games: 4–1 ATS at the early week line · as the favorite 0–1 · as the dog 4–0 · home 1–1, away 3–0 · avg gap to the market +3.9 · closer than the market 3 of 5

Outlook

from 10,000 season simulations
Projected wins
9.25–1 banked, 6 to play · preseason 6.1
Bowl (6+)99%
9+ wins41%
11+ wins0%

The 6 games left add 4.2 expected wins.

Playoff picture
Reach title game15%
Win conference6%
Make the CFP18%
First-round bye2%
Win it all<1%
  • A CFP bid: 22% with a win vs Oklahoma State, 4% with a loss.
  • Scoreboard watch: root for Colorado over Utah — swings a CFP bid between 17% and 21%.

Full bracket on the playoffs page.

Offense and defense

6 games · rank of 138 FBS
rank of 138
Offense
EPA per play+0.2513th
Success rate52.9%4th
Pass EPA+0.397th
Rush EPA+0.1344th
Explosive rate12.6%71st
Quality-drive rate72.4%2nd
Points per quality drive4.635th
Defense
EPA allowed+0.0471st
Success allowed40.4%67th
Pass EPA allowed+0.0988th
Rush EPA allowed−0.0441st
Explosive allowed10.9%50th
Havoc rate9.0%71st

Special teams, luck and schedule

through the latest board
rank of 138
Special teams & luck
Special teams EPA / game+0.763rd
Turnover margin+432nd · exp. +4.0
Field position margin+11.9 yd3rd
Hidden points / game+4.3banked
Luck, wins+0.24.8 earned
One-score record0–1flipped 6–0
Rush rate over expected+1.6%41st
Overall
Rating, pts vs average+10.422nd
Schedule played+3.833rd
Schedule remaining+4.549th
Full schedule+4.244th
Pregame expected wins2.6of 6

Ranking by week

ours vs the AP poll
151025Wk 0Wk 2Wk 4Wk 6
Ours 22nd · +10.4AP 20thWeek 6
Where they sit · offense vs defensepinch or ⌘/ctrl + scroll to zoom · drag to move · double-tap to reset
−0.200.00+0.20FBS averageStanfordHawai'iFlorida StateNew Mexico StateEastern MichiganSacramento StateNorth Dakota StateJacksonville StateVirginiaNC StateUSCSan José StateUNLVMemphisTCUNorth CarolinaUCFDelawareKennesaw StateBuffaloMinnesotaMissouriUtahRutgersMassachusettsWake ForestAkronGeorgia TechColoradoIllinoisUABFresno StatePurdueGeorgia StateOklahomaUTEPMichigan StateToledoMiamiKansasTexas A&MMissouri StateSouth AlabamaGeorgia SouthernSouth FloridaFlorida InternationalRiceUtah StateMiddle TennesseeArkansas StateVanderbiltTexas TechKansas StateVirginia TechMississippi StateUL MonroeLSUClemsonLouisiana TechMichiganWestern MichiganTroySam HoustonFloridaFlorida AtlanticColorado StateWyomingSouthern MissAir ForceTempleGeorgiaTennesseeApp StateCharlotteOregonBoise StateNavyUTSAPenn StateMarshallTexasTexas StateDukeTulaneTulsaOklahoma StateArkansasIowaNorthern IllinoisOld DominionIowa StateLouisianaBYUAuburnBaylorNorthwesternMarylandArizonaSan Diego StateNew MexicoCentral MichiganArizona StateNevadaWestern KentuckyCaliforniaUCLAKentuckyCincinnatiBoston CollegeArmySouth CarolinaKent StateOhio StateBall StateWest VirginiaCoastal CarolinaUConnBowling GreenAlabamaEast CarolinaOregon StateIndianaNorth TexasJames MadisonLibertyNebraskaOhioPittsburghMiami (OH)SyracuseWashingtonWashington StateNotre DameWisconsinOle MissLouisvilleSMUHOUgood offense, good defense →Offense EPA/play →better defense →
Houstonoff +0.25 13thdef +0.04 allowed · 71st

Every FBS team, through the latest board. EPA is garbage-time filtered. Tap a logo for its numbers.

Records and stats cover FBS-vs-FBS games only — the games the model grades. Rate stats exclude garbage time (a lead of 38+ in the first half, 28+ in the third quarter, 22+ in the fourth); turnovers are counted whole. Hover a row for its definition.