Week 4 report · Sat, Sep 26 · 2026 Week 4
TCU
2–3 · Ours #41 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
13–21FinalWe had TCU 26 – UCF 23
UCF
3–3 · Ours #54 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
Win chanceOur odds before kickoff: how often each team won outright when we played the game out thousands of times from our line.TCU 57%UCF won
TCU 57%UCF wonSpreadOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. First seen at TCU −3.TCU −3.5oursOur computer's point spread for this game, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. Read it like a betting line: −7 means we have that team winning by 7. −2.8 · UCF covered by 11.5
TotalOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. Our total was 49.0.48final 34 · under by 14
Our callThe side our number took at the early-week line, graded at that line. Line value is how far the market moved toward it by the last capture before kickoff.No call
Quarterbacksthis game
Jaden Craig25/40 · 295 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- +0.0948th pct
- Comp %
- 62.5
- TD
- 0
- Turnovers
- 22 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 4
Keyone Jenkins19/20 · 160 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- +0.1756th pct
- Comp %
- 95.0
- TD
- 1
- Turnovers
- 00 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 2
The matchupthis game · ▲▼ better or worse than the unit's usual · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| TCUoffense | Played like UCF +4.3Fitted from non-garbage efficiency; describes how the game was played, not who deserved it. | defenseUCF | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 37th | 37.9%▼1.0 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 37.9%▲5.9 | 63rd |
| 43rd | +0.01▲0.14 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | +0.01▲0.05 | 58th |
| 52nd | +0.09▼0.03 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | +0.09▲0.08 | 48th |
| 23rd | −0.17▲0.19 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | −0.17▲0.11 | 78th |
| 1st | 4▼3.0 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 4▲3.0 | 99th |
| UCFoffense | defenseTCU | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 56th | 43.4%▲7.1 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 43.4%▼6.5 | 44th |
| 49th | +0.05▲0.03 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | +0.05▼0.20 | 51st |
| 60th | +0.17▲0.22 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | +0.17▼0.57 | 40th |
| 38th | −0.04▼0.07 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | −0.04▲0.11 | 62nd |
| 41st | 1▼0.3 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 1▲0.7 | 59th |
Team statsthis game · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| TCUTCU | UCFUCF | |
|---|---|---|
| Special teams & field position | ||
| Average startWhere the team's drives started on average. | Own 2744th | Own 3270th |
| Kicking vs expectedKickingPoints from field goals and extra points against what an average kicker makes from the same spots. | −0.4 pts28th | 0.0 pts39th |
| Drives & pace | ||
| PlaysOffensive plays outside garbage time. | 6675th | 5342nd |
| Drive pointsThe part of the final margin the offense moved the ball for (efficiency, success rate, big plays, finishing drives), in points. A margin over the opponent. | −6.432nd | +6.468th |
| Turnovers & hidden points | ||
| Penalty first downsPenalty 1st downsFirst downs the team was handed by the opponent's penalties. | 122nd | 698th |
| 4th downsPoints from going for it on fourth down, against what the average team gets from the same spots. | +0.3 pts68th | −0.6 pts18th |
| Hidden pointsPoints from outside the offense's drives: turnovers, field position, kicking, fourth downs, penalty first downs, return touchdowns and safeties. A margin over the opponent. UCF +9.7: turnovers +5.2, field position +1.5, kicking +0.3, 4th downs −1.2, penalty first downs +3.9. | −9.713th | +9.787th |
Season so far
TCU2–3 · 41st-hardest schedule
L
vs North Carolina10–15missed −7.5
vs North Carolina10–15missed −7.5Wvs Grambling63–7covered −44.5
W
vs Arkansas State31–7covered −19
vs Arkansas State31–7covered −19Lat UCF13–21missed −3.5
at UCF13–21missed −3.5L
vs BYU10–17missed +6
vs BYU10–17missed +6UCF3–3 · 29th-hardest schedule
Wvs Bethune-Cookman73–6covered −43
L
at Pittsburgh7–12covered +7
at Pittsburgh7–12covered +7W
vs Georgia State44–30missed −17.5
vs Georgia State44–30missed −17.5Wvs TCU21–13covered +3.5
vs TCU21–13covered +3.5L
at Houston17–27covered +10.5
at Houston17–27covered +10.5L
at Oklahoma State28–42missed +10
at Oklahoma State28–42missed +10Model cfb_best · uncertainty ±15.6 · run Sep 26, 2:05 PM EDT · froze at kickoff and graded as-is